Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - CareerBuilder Challenge

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

CareerBuilder Challenge

Welcome back daily fantasy golf fans. The 2018 portion of the season is in full swing and this week the players return to the mainland and will travel to La Quinta, California for the CareerBuilder Challenge formerly known as the Humana Challenge and the Bob Hope Classic.

This week is a little different than most PGA tournaments as it will be played on three different courses. Each player will get one round on each course over the first three days with the tournament holding a 54-hole cut. The final round on Sunday will be played the host course, TPC Stadium Course in its third year as the host course. This also muddies the water when trying to analyze course history and key stats but we will roll with the hand we are dealt. Below is a look at the hole composition and approach shot distribution on the Stadium Course via Fantasy National Golf Club. Those making the final round on Sunday will get two cracks at this course so this will be the only course I will be looking closely at in the article. For an overview of the other two courses, be sure to grab a copy of my cheatsheet.

 

Like I mentioned above, narrowing down the stats is very tough this week but a few I am looking at for the Stadium Course specifically are Par 4's from 400-450 yards and approaches from 150-175 yards. More than anything, I will be looking at Birdie or Better % as the winning score has been between -20 and -28 for five straight years. I am keeping things pretty simple this week and weighing form and last two years course history a little higher than normal. Let's jump in and take a look at the course, past winners, and my top picks in each category.

The Courses

TPC Stadium Course
Par 72 - 7,113 Yards

**Click the pic above or HERE to see the Stadium Course breakdown over at PGATour.com**

Past Five Winners

• Hudson Swafford(-20)
• Jason Dufner(-25)
• Bill Hass(-22)
• Patrick Reed(-28)
• Brian Gay(-25)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity from 150-175
• Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring(400-450 Yards)
• Par 5 Scoring

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

Top Course History Targets

Brendan Steele
World Golf Ranking (#46)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($10,200)

A few years back, the California kid(not actually his nickname) would not show up under any course history list here at the CareerBuilder Challenge. In his first four events here, he missed the cut the twice and added finishes of T66 and T56. Something started clicking in 2015 when he finished T2 then followed it up with a T34 in 2016 and a T6 last season. He also comes in with some nice form having already picked up a win at the Safeway Open in October followed by a T13 at the CIMB Classic. He showed some rust in the new year with a 29th place finish at the Tournament of Champions but a return to Cali should be exactly what the doctor ordered. He also shows up when looking at performance on California courses as a whole(since 2014 via Future of Fantasy) and if he can shake his weakness and make some putts this week(94th in SG:P on my sheet) should be in contention come Sunday. His price is a little high over at FanDuel making him GPP only but on DraftKings under $9K, I will be using him in all formats.

Bud Cauley
World Golf Ranking (#107)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($9,500)

Bud Cauley is another player who has trended in the right direction here at the CareerBuilder Challenge over the past few years with finishes of T14 in 2016 and T3 last year after a missed cut in 2014, T37 in 2013, and T30 in his first trip in 2012. Form was definitely not an issue over the two years as he came into the 2016 event with two missed cuts and went into last years event with four missed cuts and a T50. It's a different story this season as he enters with four straight cuts made in the fall season with two Top 10 finishes, including his most recent event the RSM Classic where he finished -13 after rounds of 63, 68, and 66 to close out the tournament. He also stands out when looking at the Strokes Gained stats as he ranks 19th Off the Tee, 10th in Approach, and 5th in Tee to Green on my cheatsheet. He is seeking his first career win and very well could be in contention this week but it is not needed for him to hit value in DFS as he sits comfortably in the mid $8K range.

Top Current Form Targets

Brian Harman
World Golf Ranking (#20)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)
FanDuel ($11,600)

His price has reached a new high($7,388 season average in 2017) but for good reason as he has been money this season. It started in the fall swing where he finished T5 at the CJ Cup, 8th at the WGC-HSBC Champions, and T4 at the RSM Classic. It has carried over into the 2018 portion of the season as he finished 3rd at the Tournament of Champions and T4 last week at the Sony Open. He is currently the most tagged player on FanShareSports so expect him to be chalky but fading him could be a mistake. He also has excellent course history since the Stadium Course became the host course in 2016 with finishes of T3 and T11. It checks out statistically(via FNGC) as well as you can see below over his last four rounds on the course.

Austin Cook
World Golf Ranking (#118)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FanDuel ($9,800)

I wrote about him last week in the stats section and have upgraded him to the form section this week as he has now made all six cuts in his rookie season including a win at the RSM Classic. From a fantasy perspective, he has been very consistent with 70 or more DraftKings points in five of those six tournaments and is now averaging 84.4 on the season. He will be making his first trip to the CareerBuilder Challenge but I think he can keep up with the big boys. Looking at the cheatsheet, he ranks 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance, and 4th in Birdie or Better %. The price is going up but I think we can still consider him in all formats.

Who the Stats Like

Chesson Hadley
World Golf Ranking (#80)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,000)
FanDuel ($8,700)

After losing his Tour card in 2016, Hadley won twice on the Web.com Tour last year and is back with the big boys and looking good. He started the fall season with three straight Top 5 finishes before withdrawing from the OHL Classic(illness). He returned the next at the RSM Classic and finished T37 and will now make his 2018 debut. He didn't make the course history section as he is 0 for 3 here at the CareerBuilder Challenge but did make the stats section as he is #1 on the sheet in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Bogey Avoidance, and 2nd in Birdie or Better %. The terrible course history and higher price has me staying away in cash games but I will definitely have some exposure in GPP formats.

Phil Mickelson
World Golf Ranking (#43)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($11,700)

The tournament ambassador pops all over the place this week and is the only player in the field to rank Top 10 in all four categories(form, history, stats, DK points) on my cheatsheet. He has finished Top 25 here in three straight years with a 3rd place finish in 2016 and is coming off a 3rd place finish at the Safeway Open and T15 at the WGC-HSBC Champions but the reason he is in the article this week is the stats.  He ranks 4th in Strokes: Gained Tee to Green, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Digging even deeper he ranks 10th in Proximity from 150-175 yards, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, and 3rd in Birdie or Better %. I also ran my custom stats model on Fantasy National Golf Club and looked at the trend for last 4, 8, 12, 24, 36, and 50 rounds and Lefty ranks Top 6 in all of them.

 

Who is being Mentioned on FanShareSports(DraftKings)

In this section, I will be displaying a snapshot of the Top 3 golfers in each price range on DraftKings when it comes to FanShareSports tag count and then providing a few GPP pivots that could be lower owned. This is a small sample of what FanShare has to offer its premium members. If you used the site prior to it becoming a paid service, there is a ton that has changed including FanDuel salary breakdown, salary movement on both sites from week to week, official world golf rankings, projections, 24-hour tag count movement, and so much more. Be sure to get over and sign up today as there is, even more, coming as the 2018 season progresses. Let's jump in and take a look at this weeks tag counts.

$10K Range

The top tier is small with just five golfers but Rahm, Harman, and Mickelson lead the way in the tag count with Rahm sitting with a commanding lead in start recommendations. I will have the most exposure to Mickelson in this tier but think there is a nice pivot opportunity with Patrick Reed. The low tag and start count can be contributed to his poor form as he is coming off a missed cut at the OHL Classic and a T50 at the WGC-HSBC Champions. He won this event in 2014, finished 12th last year and has made four straight cuts here. At a projected ownership likely around 5%-10% less than the three players above, I think Reed makes a great play with winning upside.

 

$9K and $8K Range

No surprise to see Chez Reavie lead all golfers in tag counts this week as he has not missed a cut since the Byron Nelson in May last year(17 straight) and has seven straight Top 25 finishes. Bud Cauley is coming off two Top 10's in the fall and Webb Simpson is coming off his best finish(T4 at the Sony Open) since the Wyndham in August. All three will be popular this week and I will have a ton of exposure to Cauley and Reavie in cash games but feel there are some projected lower owned players in this range to help us separate ourselves in GPP formats.

The first player I will be targeting is Chesson Hadley who I wrote up above. He currently sits T18 in tags and has just 11 start recommendations as of Wednesday afternoon. It's the same story for Austin Cook who I wrote up and for some reason even after a win and four Top 25 finishes in six starts in his rookie season he is still being somewhat overlooked with just 14 tags. There is a chance he is under 10% owned in GPP's this week so it won't take a bunch of exposure to have more than the field. A player that I didn't write up this week who could be low owned is Zach Johnson who is also having a very consistent start to the 2017-18 season. It started with a T13 at the Safeway Open, a T23 at the OHL Classic, T8 at the RSM Classic, and a T14 in last week's Sony Open. The low tag count(16 tags, 5 for start) may have something to do with his recent course history as he has missed the cut in three straight years. He is 10th in Proximity on my sheet and 11th in Par 4 Scoring and with 12 career victories, we know he has winning upside. Take advantage of the projected low ownership.

 

$7K and $6K Range

It is very close at the top of this tier as all three currently sit inside the Top 10 in overall tags. Spaun is still seeking his first career win but has been very consistent with five straight cuts made including a runner-up at the RSM Classic and T10 at the Shriners Open. Palmer struggled in 2017 with just three Top 10 finishes, two of which came at the Zurich(team event) and Barracuda Championship(weak field). He missed the cut here last year but has great course history in the four years before that with finishes of T17('16), T10('15), 2nd('14), and T6('13). Given the form and projected ownership in the 10%-15% range, I will be fading Palmer this week. Scott Piercy doesn't pop off the page with course history but has made all four cuts this year and stands out statistically ranking 13th in SG: APP, 22nd in SG: APP + OTT, 29th in Proximity, and 11th in Birdie or Better % on my cheatsheet. I will definitely have some exposure despite the likely chalk.

A couple players I am looking at for GPP pivots in this range are J.T. Poston and Brian Stuard. Poston is coming off a missed cut back in November at the RSM Classic but was in nice form before that with finishes of T14 at the OHL Classic and T4 at the Shriners Open. He finished T34 here last year in his first trip so there is a little course history there and he also stands out a bit when looking at the stats. While he only ranks 49th overall in Proximity, he ranks 4th from 150-175 yards which is my key distance this week on the Stadium Course. he is also 35th in SG: OTT+APP, 34th in Bogey Avoidance, and 30th in Birdie or Better %. He is on my list as a first-time winner this season and it could be as early as this Sunday afternoon. Stuard has had a very nice start to the season after missing the cut in almost 50% of his events in 2017 with zero Top 10 finishes. This season he has made the cut in all six events to go along with three Top 10 finishes and while he has missed the cut here in his last two trips, finished 5th in 2014 and T10 in 2013. He is liekly to be only around 5% or less owned this week and makes a nice pivot off the chalk.

 

Tournament Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.