Houston Rockets guard Chris Paul (3) brings the ball up as Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell, rear, follows during the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.43 DK - 28.01
We have 2 very different slates on our hands tonight. During the day, we have 5 games with a lot of value. At night, 4 super solid games and a lot of decisions to make. We'll start with the early slate and one of the more obvious picks. Jarrett Jack is an extremely solid option. He might end up being one of the more popular options on the entire slate, but that's fine. Over the last 3 games, he's been at 32, 44, and 45. He has dominated and while it obviously won't last, we should be riding this wave. Especially in a match-up with a Nets team that can't cover PG's. He's been at 33, 36, and 40 minutes, which never hurts. He's still priced under $6k on both sites and is an easy pick in all formats. Jack can be counted on for 25 with the upside for 40-50.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.62 DK - 34.88
We'll kick things off on the early slate with a pretty subpar position. We have John Wall on the high-end in a tough match-up with an injured Kyle Lowry under him. We'll instead pay down a bit for Spencer Dinwiddie, who's been phenomenal as of late. He's been over 35 minutes in 4 of the last 6 games and has hit value in each. Tonight, he gets an optimal match-up against the Knicks, who rank dead last against point guards. Aside from Jarrett Jack being old and a horrible defender, he doesn't have any help behind him. Dinwiddie is the main aggressor on this Nets team and the only way they can really stay competitive in most games. This early slate doesn't offer up the best match-ups at point guard and Dinwiddie is a stone cold lock in cash games. He needs to get you to 30 in cash games and close to 40 in tournaments. There are definitely other ways to go, but Dinwiddie is the top clear cut point-per-dollar option at the position.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 55.16 DK - 57.33
Since James Harden went out with an injury, Chris Paul has stepped right in and been dominant ever since. He's putting up 45+ fantasy points every single game and hit a 70 ceiling 2 nights ago. he now gets a match-up against a Clippers squad that you know he has to be excited to face. It's obviously tough to quantify a narrative, but Chris Paul is obviously going to have a little extra in the tank against his former team. He's allowed to do whatever he wants with Harden out of the lineup and has shot 20+ times already in this recent stretch. Vegas hasn't dropped a line on the game yet, but I'd guess a total around 215 with a spread no bigger than 5 or 6 in the Rockets favor. Aside from the narrative, the Clippers struggle against PG's. While they actually rank in the top 10 on the season, that has a lot to do with Pat Beverley. Evans and Teodosic are both subpar defenders and the Clips have ranked 27th against PG's over the last month. Paul is an elite option in all formats with a 40+ floor and 70 ceiling. I will have as close to 100% exposure as possible.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.19 DK - 44.83
On this early slate, there’s 1 guy to pay up for at each position. Unfortunately, they are all very viable. You’ll have to pay down in a couple spots, but should be able to fit 2 or 3 of them. If things break right, Demar DeRozan is easily one of my favorites. Kyle Lowry is currently questionable and it will come down to his status. If he plays, DeRozan is still very much in play, but will see the ball less and take 4 or 5 fewer shots. If Lowry misses, DeRozan jumps to one of my top plays of the night. For one, he’s cheaper than the other superstars at close to $9k. Two, he is going to dominate the ball for 35+ minutes against a porous 76ers defense. The 76ers team that ranks dead last against SG’s. I’m sure they’ll mix up the looks against a superstar like DD, but it doesn’t matter. It just creates mismatches elsewhere and a messy defense. DeRozan is going to shoot 20+ times of Lowry is out and has a floor of 40. If it stays close and he gets close to 40 minutes, his upside truly is as high as anyone else on the slate. I’ll have a ton of exposure in all formats if Lowry is ruled out. If Lowry plays, he’ll be in 25% or so of tournaments.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.22 DK - 26.37
If you're looking to pay down, Justin Holiday is way too cheap. You can look at a Wayne Ellington or Courtney Lee, but Holiday is a better player than both and has forced himself under $5k. He's been pretty good as of late and to me, his price should be in the low $6k's. He's put up 25+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games and reached 30 in 3. He's still a huge piece of this offense and is relied on to score 15+ a night. The minutes are extremely consistent at 35+ and he often sees close to 40. The Heat are an average match-up for guards and have taken a hit with Ellington at the 2. They play slow, however, so rarely give up a ton. Holiday is a fine option in all tournaments that will help you pay up elsewhere.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.13 DK - 35.37
Donovan Mitchell is the clear-cut top dog for rookie of the year and just continues building his case game in and game out. If you want to talk consistency, you won’t find a guy better under $9k. He’s over 30 fantasy points every single night and regularly gets to 40. He’s the number 1 option on the offense and has 0 problem shooting 20+ times. The Jazz match-up with the Pacers tonight, who play pretty fast. Victor Oladipo is a good defender at the 2, but the Pacers rank 17th against SG’s with the fast PACE and without any help under the rim. Mitchell has been destroying teams like GS, CLE, MIA, and CHA, who are all much tougher match-ups than this or play at a snail pace. He’s in play in all formats tonight with a floor of 30 and ceiling of 50. Shooting guard has a lot of different routes on this late slate, but Mitchell makes the most sense per $.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 30.47 DK - 30.11
There's an argument in paying up for Giannis, but he simply hasn't been good. He can put up 60 points any day, but has been in the 30's for 4 straight and has only reached 60 2x over the last month. The Wizards are a decent team for him to match up with and you can definitely go there in tournaments. We're going to instead look down to Robert Covington, who's priced down to the $5k's. He's admittedly been pretty bad, but he's still getting the minutes and we know how involved he is in the offense. Against the Raptors, he's going to match-up with O.G. Anunboy and C.J. Miles. Neither are good defenders and it's why they rank 26th over the last 10 games. Covington is a lot bigger than both of them and will be able to take advantage on the inside as well as the perimeter, where the Raptors struggle covering. Vegas has this game staying close, so we can guarantee 34+ minutes and 10+ shots out of Covington. Give me a floor of 25 with a ceiling of 50 in the mid-$5k's all day long. You can go with Giannis in tournaments if you have the funds, but don't feel like it's necessary.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 55.55 DK - 56.69
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 50.42 DK - 50.63
The main/late slate is centered around these 2 guys. In one of the more anticipated match-ups of the regular season, the Cavs and Warriors will face off in Cleveland. These 2 are obviously going to face-off and have an extremely storied past. They have both gone insane on each other plenty in the past, but have went for 30 FP other times. There’s always a dash of variance, but these two guys are going to perform more often than not when facing each other. LeBron is slightly more expensive and rightfully so. He’s the playmaker of this offense and has the ball in his hands in 90%+ of possessions. The Warriors can blowout anyone, but it’s not fair to expect with just a -5.5 point spread. If the game stays close, LeBron is going to put up 60. Durant is in a similar boat, but isn’t as safe. There are other options for the Warriors to go to, but there’s still so much upside with KD. He’s put up 30+ against LeBron just this year, so there’s no saying really. I personally prefer LeBron with a higher usage % and playing up in pace, but will have a lot of KD and completely understand the pivot.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 22.14 DK - 22.4
Power forward is pretty interesting on the early slate, but I’m not sure anyone sticks out. RHJ and Aldridge both have a ton of upside, but they’ll cost you and we want to pay up elsewhere. Instead, let’s look way down the list at Markieff Morris. Priced at an absurd $4600, he doesn’t need to do much. He’s certainly healthy as he played 38 minutes against the Nets just last game. Morris is a great basketball player and a guy that’s put up 1.16 FP per minute over his career. He hasn’t been on his game lately, but he isn’t scared to shoot and Wall loves getting him involved. The Bucks are dead average against power forwards and Morris matches up well with the skinner guys. He’s way too cheap and gives you 35+ upside while also helping you in a big way reach for the superstars. I’ll have quite a bit of 'Kieff today.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.82 DK - 46.21
Let’s talk about Porzingis. First things first, let’s get the elephant out of the room. He played 43 minutes last night against the Pelicans. He’s already said how tired his legs are this season, so you can’t think he’s going to get pushed again. However, the match-up is literally perfect and it’s a spot you would want 100% Porzingis if he was rested. The Nets rank dead last against PF’s and it would be close to a guarantee smash spot. I just think there’s a real chance he sees 25-30 minutes tonight. Or takes the day off against a lowly Nets team. I will have a tiny bit of Porzingis in tournaments, but can't logistically see him playing big minutes in a day game after 43 minutes a night before.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 41.81 DK - 41.18
Dray is playing some of the best basketball of the season and we know he’s a guy that gets up for big games. He already posted a triple-double against this same Cavs team a few weeks ago, so I’m not sure we need to discuss the match-up all too much. He sees a lot of Jae Crowder on paper, but we know it’ll be Kevin Love for the majority of the game. He’s able to bully him on the inside and outside and just don’t have much trouble putting FP on the board. He’s getting a huge 35+ minutes on most nights and has been over a 20% usage in the last 10 games. He’s finding his 2018 groove and is still fairly priced in the process. If you’re able to pay up, Green makes for a great option in all formats. If you’re forced to pay down, Ryan Anderson has been getting huge minutes and is cheap.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 26.45 DK - 26.29
It looks like Marcin Gortat may be back to his old ways. As a guy that’s almost entirely reliant on John Wall, it makes some sense. Wall has been battling injuries all season long and Gortat has just looked awkward in the offense. With Wall back, he’s putting up his usual 20-40 floor/ceiling. He's gone for 27+ minutes in almost every game and is getting up to 32-34 in close games. He’s hit a double-double in back to back games and has a similar match-up today to those games. The Bucks rank 14th against the C with Henson being a pretty average big man. Gortat should do his usual work with Wall in the lineup and put up at least 25. He’s an elite cash game play and makes sense in tournaments if you’re using him to pay up elsewhere. There are options at center on this early slate, but Gortat is a phenomenal value option that’ll be tough to pass up with so many ways to pay up elsewhere.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 35.26 DK - 38.28
Love was back to his normal self against the Pacers after struggling for 2 games straight. He put up 45 fantasy points and looked great while doing it. We know he’s had this match-up with the Warriors so many times and Love is probably the most inconsistent. He will often get hot and go for 40+, but seems to do the opposite nearly as much. He will see the typical Draymond Green when it matters and we know they match-up nicely. Love has trouble, but he does see opportunities and can score with ease when hot. Center is a very weak spot on this late slate and Love gives you immense upside for a solid price tag. He’s not the easiest option to stomach on any night and especially not against the Warriors, but he should be locked into 34+ minutes if it stays close and the production will be forced if that’s the case.
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View Comments
NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Unrelated to daily fantasy...I’ve seen you mention multiple times now Donovan Mitchell as the odds on favorite for RoY. How do you overlook Ben simmons? He may be a different draft class, but didn’t play a minute of nba ball last year, and this qualifies as a rookie. I would have to assume he is the favorite at this point, but even if not, he doesn’t lag behind DM.
No, that's fair. He'll definitely get the award if he doesn't get hurt. I was just thinking draft class. Simmons is -250 where I see with Mitchell +200, so you're definitely on point.
Thanks for the banter, and more importantly, I appreciate the effort you put into the site.
Thank you! Good luck today!
Lol Donovan Mitchell is not the rookie of the year. Ben Simmons is. His counting stats are better, he plays on a better team, and he has better plus minus stats. Whats wrong with you haters lol.
Mitchell 18.8ppg 3rb pg, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals, .5 Blocks 43% from the field
Simmons 17ppg 8.2 rpg, 7.3 Assists, 1 block and 2 steals 51% from the field
Donovon Mitchell is better and much sexier too