Indiana Pacers' Victor Oladipo, right, dribbles past Atlanta Hawks' Dennis Schroder, of Germany, in the third quarter of an NBA basketball game in Atlanta, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017. Indiana won 105-95. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Happy Sunday, my friends! You've waited 6 days for me to write the picks again I'm sure, and now it's here. You probably have your hopes sky high, and for good reason. Last Sunday's picks were the hottest of fire, and while I haven't written these yet, I can only imagine how amazing they will be. A mix between Fight Club and Nate Silver's book, whatever it was called. Strap yourself in, and get ready to ride on the value train.
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NBA optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NBA or NFL? Be sure to read our free NBA and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.07 DK - 30.43
So it'll be a recurring theme all article long, so let me give you a 50,000 foot view of why you're going to see so many Pacers in today's article. First, the obvious - they've got the best possible match-up in the league with Phoenix, who combines the league's 3rd fastest pace with a bottom 4 defensive efficiency. Second, the almost as obvious - it's a small slate, and one where everyone will struggle to find value. But now, the not so obvious. We've waited a long time for a healthy Pacers squad to play a a close game so we could get a more realistic sense of their minutes, and they finally did so against the Cavs. Well, in that game the starters actually played starters minutes, including Collison! Since it's been so long since the Pacers starters played real minutes, they are all at a deep discount to their true value. Combine that with the insane match-up, and you're almost certainly playing the max number of Pacers in your 50/50s and double-ups today.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.72 DK - 28.17
Tim Hardaway Jr.'s return cast some shadow of doubt on the usage and opportunity for the other members of the Knicks' back court, but Jack seemed relatively unaffected, playing 33 minutes and putting up 32.2 fantasy points. We're now on 3 straight games with Jack providing more than a fantasy point per minute, and playing more than enough minutes to justify these prices. Hardaway could even ease some of the defensive pressure on Jack, since he is a much more credible offensive threat than Courtney Lee, who had been playing the lion's share (and then some) of the 2 guard minutes. New Orleans, meanwhile, is a great match-up by any metric. They play the 6th fastest pace with a bottom 7 defense, and are particularly poor against opposing point guards given Rondo's new status as a true zero on defense. Love Jack for any format.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.65 DK - 28.12
Just an "also consider" guy since I'll be feeding you a steady diet of Pacers today, but Teague is worthy of your consideration here because he's the one Minnesota player who's underpriced. We know the Wolves have a tendency to lock players into a starting role and to ride them into the ground, and with Teague's minutes growing from 25 to 32 in his second game back from injury I think we can expect that trend to continue upward going forward. The nice thing? It doesn't even need to to justify these prices. At $5,500 Teague represents a legit steal on his 30.5 fantasy points per game average, and match-up against the still banged up Lillard only sweetens the deal.
Keep an eye on the Evan Turner situation. Shabazz Napier started in place of him on Friday and was insanely good. He'd be an auto-play as a starter again here.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.21 DK - 47.42
Oladipo will be such overwhelming chalk that I only go through the motions of writing him up formally as to avoid arousing your suspicion. Oladipo has been on again, off again in the 4 games since he's returned from minutes, but what we know for sure is that the Pacers' plan is to run him out there for 37-40 minutes per game when the time is right. Vegas has this one pegged as a 3.5 point game, and if that's true, we'll almost certainly get our full diet of the Pacers' most dynamic offensive player. Easy play in all formats.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36.06 DK - 36.27
Holiday's been regularly contributing value on these prices since the beginning of the new year, which has not-so-coincidentally coincided with Rondo's less steady minutes. Holiday can credibly run the point, and has even been chipping in on the boards as well. His time of possession per game (per stats.nba.com) has risen from his season long average of 4.2 minutes per game to 4.7 minutes per game, and while that might not sound like much, it's a huge deal for a guy who derives a lot of his value from distributing the ball. It's rare that you get across the board contributions from a shooting guard, and the fact that Holiday does so means he's got a higher floor than his more scoring dependent counterparts at the position. The New York match-up is league average on its face, but Hardaway's return should take minutes from better defensive players like Courtney Lee, so I think it's something a little bit better than that here.
Also considered: Devin Booker. It's rare to get Phoenix's best player in games that rate to be close, but this is one of them. He's an emotional player that could be trying hard to match Oladipo's likely output, and I think he makes an interesting play in all formats.
height="90" />
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 19.6 DK - 20.6
More Pacers! They're too cheap, they've been playing their minutes recently, and it's a league-best match-up. You get the idea.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 36.33 DK - 35.72
He's expensive, but we know the Suns' plan is to stick him out there for huge minutes in close games. I think all we can go off of is Warren's last game, where he played 36 minutes. On such a short slate, that's good enough for me even if the season per game averages aren't very reassuring here. The Pacers are a solid match-up, and I imagine you'll see significant cash game ownership here even though he's priced 5%-9% too expensive for our lineup optimizer's tastes.
Also considered: Giannis. It's a night lacking a lot of good spend-up options, so I bring you Giannis with still the littlest bit of trepidation. He's been pretty bad for three straight games, but we still have a whole season's track record to work with here. The big question ultimately is: How much does Eric Bledsoe's arrival eat into Giannis' role as point-forward? It seems that the answer is, "significantly," but the jury is still out if you ask me.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 45.4 DK - 44.97
Another pretty reasonable big payoff option today. We're getting Porzingis at a discount to his recent price points, but it's sort of warranted. He's cooled off from the absurd usage he was showing early in the season and has not especially been a reliable source of production on these FanDuel prices. So why play him today? Well, New Orleans has an extremely overrated defensive front court duo. While Davis and Cousins can put up video game numbers on the offensive end and on the glass, they've produced bottom of the league results defensively for multiple seasons now. This season is no different - opposing power forwards have put up the third most fantasy points per game against the Pelicans' bigs this season. Porzingis is a methodical offensive player who should be able to take full advantage, and I like that this is a pace-up game for him as well.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 20.5 DK - 21.16
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.08 DK - 28.48
I just want to lump someone in with Thad here, even though he's obviously a good play since he's wearing a Pacers uniform. If you happen to be a praying person, please pray for Marquese Chriss to have a long and successful career while also taking one more game off to try and get well. If he does, Bender will be another unanimous cash game play. He's coming off a game where he was 85% owned and put up 8x points per dollar on these prices. Going up against Thad and the Pacers would be by far his best match-up over the last 3 games, so it looks like an especially great spot to grab him here once again.
Also considered: Brow, of course. He'll likely be higher owned than Porzingis for cash, particularly if you think people won't trust Giannis' minutes. It's a great match-up with the Knicks, even if Porzingis' is better by the numbers. The one thing Brow doesn't bring is consistency - the potential for an injury in any given moment seems through the roof, and the team is overly (if understandably) cautious with their franchise player. Still, on a short slate you could certainly do worse.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 54.75 DK - 57.74
One reason to not play Anthony Davis is that you will probably have difficulty playing him and Demarcus Cousins in the same lineup. Cousins is a little more expensive, but what you pay up for in price he makes up for in actual consistency of minutes. The Knicks are going through their own little crisis of conscience at the center position right now, with Kyle O'Quinn seeing consistent 20+ minute rotations for the first time since he's been in a Knicks' uniform. Cousins should absolutely destroy Kanter here, and Porzingis will offer little help since he'll have his hands full with Davis. We could be in for a dominating performance here.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.76 DK - 30.63
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.09 DK - 25.15
Both Knicks centers!? Sure, why not? Both O'Quinn and Kanter are very solid on a fantasy points per minute basis, and both seem to be playing enough minutes to justify their current prices. The Pelicans, as I mentioned, allow a lot of fantasy points to opposing bigs - so what seems to be the problem? I'm just not sure if I can confidently say that, after 3 games, the Knicks are guaranteed to stick with these rotations. My gut tells me these guys are going to look a lot rosier in your big tournament lineups, but especially on DraftKings where every dollar really matters on a small slate, you might have to kiss one of these frogs and hope they turn into a prince.
image sources
Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel cash game NFL plays.
DraftKings and FanDuel Week 11 cash game NFL plays
Week 10 NFL cash game picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
View Comments
NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing