Golden State Warriors' Draymond Green (23) reacts after scoring against the Houston Rockets during the first half in Game 5 of a first-round NBA basketball playoff series Wednesday, April 27, 2016, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
It’s a seven game Saturday in the NBA today, with three early and four on the main slate. We’re waiting on some key pieces of injury news (Curry, Lowry, Leonard) but that doesn’t stop our system from doing what it does best, projecting the top plays at each position. Let’s take a look at the picks!!
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.07 DK - 23.93
Point guard on the early slate is pretty cut and dry if Yogi Ferrell continues to receive the starting nod for the Mavericks. Ferrell was sent out to start the second half of the Mavs game against the Magic on Tuesday and provided an instant spark strong enough to ignite his placement in the starting rotation against the Hornets the next night. He ended the night paying 9X PPD and though the sites are starting to bring the price up, it has a long way to go to match the type of production we’ve seen in these past few games. The Lakers have been terrible lately defending against the point allowing the fourth most FP over their last five. This is the first game of the day, so we’ll know in advance if Ferrell continues to run with the starters, and if he does, lock him in.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.38 DK - 50.1
We begin the main slate with John Wall. Wall is now a member of the $10K club, at least on FanDuel, and rightfully so. His recent game logs have been the equivalent of having your finger stuck on the fire emoji so it just keeps repeating over and over. In five games dating back to New Years Eve, Wall has scored over 50 FP three times, with back to back double doubles in his last two, and a 62.7 FDP showing in his last game against the Jazz. If he could only stop giving up the rock he’d be unstoppable. That said, the minutes aren’t going anywhere, and the matchup is prime, Brooklyn plays a top five pace and while they’re not as bad on defense as they were last season, they’re still quite an easy target. Wall’s a superb cash game option with potential 60FP upside if you want to rock him in tournaments.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 30.27 DK - 29.22
Kyle Lowry is a game time decision tonight, he did some light shooting in practice, but of course Toronto want’s to take a wait and see approach to this one. If it turns out he misses his third straight game, Delon Wright remains a solid value play at the point. Wright was quiet against the Cavaliers in Thursdays blowout win posting just a 6/2/4/2 line in 18 minutes of play. While there’s no line on this game as Vegas awaits word on Steph’s status, I’m sure no one’s expecting Golden State to roll over in this one, and this will probably stand to be the most exciting game of the day. Though the Dubs may be a slightly above average fantasy matchup for point guards, if Wright can just manage half of the 44.2FP they’ve surrendered on average over their last five games, then he’s well on his way to paying value. I’m looking for more, and see a solid floor of 25 with a ceiling of 30-35 if the minutes are there. Let’s hope we have early word on Lowry, because if he remains out then everything is all Wright.
Tyrone Wallace FD - $4200 DK - $4400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 26.46
Here’s another solid value play for your early slate needs. While Milos Teodosic may be back from a three game absence, Austin Rivers remains out, which means we should continue to see a healthy helping of Tyrone Wallace. Wallace has four games to his credit now and has averaged 30 minutes while scoring double digits in all but one and racking up some periphs to boot. This gives us a player with a 20FP price tag posting an average of nearly 30FPPG. If that’s not enough for you, then let’s add in a Kings defense allowing nearly twice as many FP over their last five contests and this play screams upside. Wallace is coming in as the top overall PPD play in our system and is a play I will have everywhere on the early set.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 43.64 DK - 43.98
On the main slate we have an option in the top tier, as well as a mid range play to suit your needs. First up we have DeMar DeRozan. Double D is a much more appealing option if Kyle Lowry sits out, as he sees a 9% bump in usage with Lowry off the court, but even if Lowry suits up, you have to like the matchup here. Over the last ten games the Warriors have given up 68.5 FP on average, which is not only the most points to opposing two guards in the game, it’s 11FP more than the second worst team on the list. While the price is still a little higher than I’d prefer, it is trending in the right direction, and is certainly worth consideration as he has paid off this price three times in his last six games and the matchup suggests value should be well within reach here. It’s simple really, if Lowry sits, I’ll have DeMar everywhere. If Lowry is good to go, DeMar is limited to cash games.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.37 DK - 29.39
The Holidays may be over, but Justin Holiday is just getting started. Since New Years day in Portland Holiday has averaged 37.5 minutes per game and has been absolutely smashing value. He’s scored double digits in all but one of those games, eclipsing the 20 point mark twice and isn’t shy with the rebounds either, going just one shy of a double double against the Knicks on Wednesday. The FanDuel price is particularly odd as he’s dropped $600 since the game in MSG, which makes him an extremely appealing choice there, but Holiday is a strong option across the board going up against a Pistons team that has allowed the third most FP to opposing SG’s this season. This game is projected to stay close and the minutes should be there making for a happy Holiday for all.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 36.8 DK - 37.58
It’s not too often we get to write up Paul George in these articles as there are usually a plethora of other options that don’t have to share court time with Russell Westbrook, but on a three game early slate he’s leading the small forward position from a PPD perspective. He’s also seeing a recent downward trend in pricing which certainly adds to the appeal of this play. The Thunder are in Charlotte this afternoon and face a Hornets team that play a top ten pace, while being an average defense against the three. George will spend most of his day contending with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who is far from a shutdown defender, while occasionally breaking open when Russ finds himself locked into double coverage. He’s coming off of a pair of less than impressive outings, but prior to those he was putting up 5X - 7.5X PPD performances for a solid stretch dating back to mid December. It’s not the safest of plays, but given the options on the early slate, PG13 is a solid consideration.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 51.31 DK - 51.19
The Warriors head north of the border to play the Raptors tonight in a game we’ve already looked at with the Toronto back court, and now we’re going to cover the Warriors interior. We begin with Kevin Durant. KD leads the raw point projections on the main slate and is coming in as a top PPD play as well making him the best way you can spend over 15% of your salary on a single player. Durant seemed a little off his game last night in Milwaukee, but still did enough to carry the Dubs to a win, and come in just below the 5X PPD mark. If Steph Curry remains out again tonight you have to love KD who sees a 3% bump in usage with no Steph on the court, particularly against the Raptors who have fallen to a bottom ten defense at the position over their last ten games. Should Curry be cleared to play, I still love Durant, but the upside takes a hit.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.82 DK - 26.77
If Kawhi Leonard, who missed three straight games with a shoulder injury, and is currently listed as questionable is ruled out tonight, then Kyle Anderson becomes a stellar play against the Nuggets. This matchup is much better that it may look at first glance. Though Denver is allowing just the 14th most FP to the position, if we break it down statistically, they’re rallowing the ninth most rebounds, fourth most assists, second most steals and fourth most blocks at the position, and thats big for a guy like Anderson who can’t shoot a golf ball into the Grand Canyon, but fills out s stat sheet very nicely. In the last three games without Kawhi, KA is averaging 30 minutes per game with seven rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.3 steals per game. Keep an eye on the news as it comes out and if the Spurs are forced to sit Kawhi a fourth straight, then Anderson shoots straight to the top.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.83 DK - 29.26
The Kings head into the Staples Center for part two of a home and home set with the Clippers after L.A. visited Sac town on Thursday. DeAndre Jordan left that game after just ten minutes with an ankle sprain, and is currently questionable to take the floor this afternoon. If he’s out you want to have exposure to Montrezl Harrell. Harrell saw 27 minutes against the Kings and ended the night with 25 points, six assists and a steal. This just a night after another impressive outing against the Warriors on Wednesday. Over those two games Harrell has averaged 19 points and 6.6 rebounds in 26 minutes for 5X PPD at these prices. The Kings have allowed the seventh most FP to the position over their last five games and if there’s no Jordan for the Clippers today, there’s Harrell everywhere, in all formats.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 43.17 DK - 42.55
Draymond Green was phenomenal last night against the Bucks, flirting with triple double territory while scoring over 20 points for the second time in three games, and grabbing ten rebounds for the second straight game. It was the third time in six contests that he paid 6X PPD or better, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. On the season, Toronto is the 12th worst defense at the four, but in their last ten games they’ve been the third worst allowing 24.1 points and 14 rebounds per game. If you don’t have the salary available at the three for Kevin Durant, then Draymond Green presents an excellent way to gain exposure to the Golden State offense in a game you definitely want to target from both sides.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.52 DK - 26.68
In the mid tier price range we find Markieff Morris of the Wizards who host the Nets tonight. Washington isn't afraid to run the boards and Brooklyn will have them doing just that as this game has a combined 101 pace factor. The 215 projected total doesn't look too shabby, and though there's a sizable spread, I'm feeling this one stays competitive long enough that Markieff can get the 25-30 minutes he needs to pay off value at these prices. Morris has underwhelmed in his last two games but prior to that was riding a sold streak of three straight double doubles against defenses that were all tougher than what he'll see from Brooklyn this evening. Morris is a solid cash play with tournament upside and is a play I'll be utilizing in all formats tonight.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.48 DK - 23.02
Davis Bertans is another one who stands to benefit from Kawhi Leonard being ruled out again. Bertans was a bust in L.A. on Thursday against the Lakers, but in the two games prior to that with Kawhi sidelined, Bertans averaged 29 minutes and 30FP per game. The way the Spurs are with resting their veterans, even if Leonard returns tonight, Bertans could be in line for big minutes behind a resting Aldridge or Gasol, so this is another wait and see piece, but one that could expose huge value in the right situation.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.82 DK - 27.95
There isn’t much to like about center on the early slate today. The only two names that really stand out go up against each other today, and both have a tough matchup against a defense that is ranked top ten for the position. So, let’s chase value and focus on the cheaper one. Steven Adams isn’t a play that is going to break your bank, but offers security in minutes, (31 per game dating back to NYE) in a matchup with a 211 O/U and just a 1.5 point spread. He was quiet his last time out against the Timberwolves on Wednesday, but prior to that posted five straight double digit scoring games while flirting with double double territory on a regualar basis. If you have the extra salary left over and can pivot up to Howard then by all means go for it, but honestly, the risk is just as great, and there’s less commitment with Adams, so I’ll take my chance with the Thunders big guy.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 44.08 DK - 46.02
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.33 DK - 47.04
On the main slate we’ve got two very solid options to pay up for, and I’ll give a cheaper play just in case you need the salary relief. First up our studs. Nikola Jokic has been hit or miss shooting the rock over his past several games, struggling against some pretty terrible defenses while thriving against others. Tonight he’ll look to take advantage of a Spurs defense ranked 24th overall and allowing the third most real points per game to opposing big men. Andre Drummond meanwhile will lead the Pistons into Chicago for a tilt against a Bulls team that are a bottom ten defense at the position as well. He’s been dealing with sore ribs over the past couple of weeks, but certainly didn’t look to be hindered any on Wednesday night against the Nets when he scored 22 points and grabbed 20 rebounds in 30 minutes, his second straight double double and his seventh in eight games. He’s had two days to rest since then, so he should be good to go for tonight’s game. As cash game plays go, both of these guys should present plenty of safety if you have the funds to spend up.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.42 DK - 26.28
If you don’t have the funds to spend up though, there’s always Marcin Gortat. Just when the price on Gortat was bottoming out, he decides to start to show some signs of life, which makes now the perfect time to take advantage as it’s already starting to hit the upswing. Gortat has scored over 20 FP in five straight games with last night’s double double against the Magic in which he fouled out in 27 minutes or he could have crushed value, ending the night with a 12/22/1 line and a steal. Tonight he draws the bottom five Brooklyn Nets who allow 42.1 FP on average to opposing centers which paired with their 102.4 pace factor means the sky is the limit for Gortat tonight who has a solid 25 point floor, with a potential 40 point ceiling. Utilize Gortat in all formats with confidence.
Thanks for reading, best of luck out there tonight! As always, feel free to post any thoughts or questions in the comments section below or just pop on into the member chat. Cheers!
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View Comments
NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Thanks Chris!