From left, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth walk down the second fairway during the par three competition at the Masters golf tournament Wednesday, April 6, 2016, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
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After Dustin Johnson walked away with a commanding win at the Tournament of Champions last week, we move on to the first full-field event of 2018, the Sony Open. There will be 144 golfers(140 for fantasy) traveling to Waialae Country Club to tee it up this week, with the Top 70 and ties heading into the weekend in search of the giant cheque, trophy, and Hawaiian Lei. Justin Thomas returns as the defending champ and with his caddie, Jimmie Johnson, down and out with injury, he has pulled Jim "Bones" McKay out of his TV job to carry his bag and help him try and repeat. He hasn't caddied here at Waialae CC in quite a while(1992 I believe) but the experience can't hurt.
This week when looking at the course, we have a Par 70 that works out to be 7,044 yards and is quite a bit different from the mile-wide fairways at Kapalua. Looking at last year's data, the average fairways hit was around 56% which is going to put more emphasis on Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Each one of the Top 5 golfers(Thomas, Rose, Spieth, Kisner, Lovemark) last year finished the tournament gaining more than two strokes off the tee. With Greens in Regulation still averaging over 70% for the tournament, I will also be factoring Good Drive % which looks at the % of fairways hit + the % of greens/fringe in regulation from off the fairway. As always, Strokes Gained: Approach will be relevant as only one player inside the Top 10 and three players inside the Top 20 lost strokes with their approach last season. With the course being a par 70, we also have 12 Par 4's this week with 10 of them falling between 400 and 500 yards so when looking at Par 4 Scoring be sure to factor that in(Hint: Fantasy National Golf Club). Last but certainly not least, I will be looking closely at Birdie or Better %, especially from a GPP standpoint as the average final score over the past five years has been -22.
Waialae Country Club
Par 70 - 7,044 Yards
**Click HERE or pic above to check out the course breakdown on PGATour.com**
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($11,400)
Leishman will be making his ninth trip to Waialae for the Sony Open this week and he returns with some very consistent course history. He has made all eight cuts with two Top 10's(2014, 2013), three other Top 20's(2017, 2010, 2009)and his worst finish is a T37 in 2015. Breaking down the last 24 rounds here at Waialae(via Fantasy National Golf Club), Leishman ranks 2nd in DraftKings points, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total, 4th in Strokes Gained: Short Game, and 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He will also be coming into this tournament with some momentum as he is coming off a fantastic start to the 2017-18 season. He finished 2nd at the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges in October and while he stumbled a bit at the WGC-HSBC Champions(T38) he posted three rounds under 70 in last weeks Tournament of Champions finishing T4 and if not for a disastrous Saturday 76, he may have given DJ a run for his money. I don't think we need to spend all the way up fo him in cash games but in the same price range as Thomas and Spieth, I think he makes an excellent GPP pivot this week.
Charles Howell III
World Golf Ranking (#65)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,800)
FanDuel ($10,100)
As chalky as he will be, there is no way to have a conversation about course history at the Sony Open without mentioning Charles Howell III. Going back to his first appearance here back in 2002 where he finished T4, he has played a total of 16 Sony Open's with an incredible seven Top 5's, nine Top 10's, and has never missed a cut at Waialae Country Club. The winning upside is somewhat limited as he has not won on Tour since 2007 but he has flashed some fantasy upside, most recently at the OHL Classic where he posted 108 DraftKings points. All things considered, however, I will be using Howell in cash games and looking for pivots in the same price range for my GPP lineups.
Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (5/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)
FanDuel ($12,800)
Spieth is at the top of the salary this week leap-frogging Thomas and it was a tough decision deciding between the two elite golfers. I ended up ranking Spieth slightly ahead after he rebounded in a big way after last week's opening round 75. He ended up finishing inside the Top 10 and if not for a poor putting performance(30th out of 34 in SG: P), would have possibly challenged DJ for the win. Counting the Hero World Challenge in early December, Spieth has not finished outside the Top 10 at a PGA Tour event since the PGA Championship in August and shortly before that picked up back to back wins at the Travelers and Open Championship. Breaking things down even further and looking at performance on Par 70 courses over the last 24 rounds, Spieth has the edge. He ranks #1 in DraftKings Scoring, Strokes Gained: Total, Tee to Green, Ball Striking, and Approach and ranks Top 5 in Strokes Gained: Short Game and Around the Green. If he can get back to being the putter we know he can be, I feel he can come away with another win this week. Whether you are goign stars and scrubs in cash games or tournaments, Spieth is my #1 play once again.
Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#96)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($8,000)
FanDuel ($9,300)
If you are going with a balanced lineup in cash games, look no further than Chez Reavie. He was very busy in the fall swing playing five times and finished each one of those tournaments inside the Top 25 and three of them inside the Top 15. Going even further with his consistency in 2017, Chez has not missed a cut on Tour since the Byron Nelson back in mid-May. He returns to the Sony Open with some decent course history as well coming off a Top 10 last year and has made the cut here in three straight years. To top things off, he also fits the stats model ranking 13th on my sheet in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee + Approach, 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 5th in Good Drive %, and 8th in Par 4 Scoring. He not only makes sense in cash but looking at the last 24 rounds on Par 70 courses(via Fantasy National Golf Club), he ranks 8th in DraftKings scoring as well.
Austin Cook
World Golf Ranking (#128)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,700)
For the stats section, I will be rolling with a couple value plays this week and will start with the chalkier of the two, Austin Cook. He is impressing in a big way in his rookie season making all five cuts and has already broken through with a win at the RSM Classic. Looking at DraftKings scoring, he has tallied 70 or more points in four of his five starts and sits 12th overall this week in my stats model. While he has struggled with the approach shot(81st on my sheet), he sits 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 1st in Good Drive %, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, and 3rd in Birdie or Better %. I will reserve him for GPP only on FanDuel at $9,700 but will be using him in all formats on DraftKings as his price is somehow still down in the mid $7K range.
Andrew Landry
World Golf Ranking (#173)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,100)
One of the value plays on my radar this week is Andrew Landry. He made a big splash in his rookie season(2016) with a T15 at the US Open where he was a part of the final pairing on Sunday. He also picked up a Top 10 finish at the John Deere Classic that season but was unable to retain his Tour card. He spent last season on the Web.com Tour and quickly impressed with a win in the Bahamas and ended up finishing 4th on the Money List to once again earn his PGA Tour status. He kicked off the season with a T7 at the Safeway Open and despite a rough stretch with a T59, missed cut and withdraw, he bounced back with another Top 10 at the RSM Classic in mid-November and comes in with some momentum. His stats are impressive despite some weaker fields but does rank 5th on my sheet in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee + Approach, 30th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 14th in Par 4 Scoring. It is his first trip to Hawaii for the Sony Open but he does have the talent to compete out here and makes a nice value play in all formats.
In this section, I will be displaying a snapshot of the Top 3 golfers in each price range on DraftKings when it comes to FanShareSports tag count and then providing a few GPP pivots that could be lower owned. This is a small sample of what FanShare has to offer its premium members. If you used the site prior to it becoming a paid service, there is a ton that has changed including FanDuel salary breakdown, salary movement on both sites from week to week, official world golf rankings, projections, 24-hour tag count movement, and so much more. Be sure to get over and sign up today as there is, even more, coming as the 2018 season progresses. Let's jump in and take a look at this weeks tag counts.
As expected at the start of the week, Jordan Spieth leads everyone in all tiers with 45 tags and 33 start calls as of Wednesday afternoon despite his $12K+ price tag on both sites. With a 100% sentiment rating, I am guessing his GPP ownership will get up in the 30% range in most contests. From the Tournament of Champions to the Tour Championship last year he had an average ownership of 20.2% with a high of 36%(Tour Champ) and a low of 9.8%(Dell Tech Champ). There are only five drivers in this range and all of them sit inside the Top 10 in tags so finding a low owned pivot is just not going to happen. You are pretty much going to have to choose two or three of them and go with it. Like I mentioned above, I feel Spieth rebounds after his terrible putting performance last week and not only contends for the win but may run away with the Sony Open in DJ fashion. If you do plan on fading the chalk, Justin Thomas would be my top choice who has seen a trend down in tag counts over the last 24 hours and is the defending champion. Oh and he will also have Bones on the bag this week.
Right behind Spieth in overall tag count is Si Woo Kim. I will be fading him this week for a couple reasons starting with the obvious high ownership projection. The other thing that stands out is the boom or bust nature of playing him. He has played six times since the start of the fall season with finishes of 77th, T44, T69, 3rd, Missed Cut, 10th. Then I looked a little closer at the putting results over the last 24 rounds on Bermuda Greens(via Fantasy National Golf Club) and Kim ranks 118th in this field with -8.8 strokes lost to the field. Tony Finau is in the same boat when it comes to Bermuda putting ranking 105th(-6 strokes lost) but is the better player overall and has been much more consistent since the start of the Fall Season(2nd, T26, T11, T16). I wrote up Chucky Three Sticks above in course history section of the article as he just doesn't miss cuts here and as expected, will be high owned at a price under $9K on DraftKings. I can make the case for using him in cash games with that consistency but will fade in GPP's as, in my opinion, just doesn't have the upside as others in this range.
At the bottom of the tag counts in this range is one of my favorite pivots for GPP's, Jamie Lovemark. It is the classic case of form vs. history as Lovemark has finished inside the Top 10 in back to back years here at the Sony Open but is coming off back to back missed cuts at the RSM Classic and Shriners Open. While he also struggles to putt on Bermuda(107th last 24 rounds), he stands out in a Par 4 and 5 scoring on my sheet this week(11th & 16th). With a projected ownership under 10% this week, you won't need a ton of exposure to have more than the field.
The other player in this range that is sitting near the bottom of the tag counts in this range is Ollie Schniederjans. This may be due to recency bias as he missed the cut at the RSM Classic but was very consistent to start the year with finishes of T17, T23, and T19. I also had a close look at the Bermuda rolling trends on Fantasy National and things are looking good. He is ranked 8th over the last 12 rounds, 4th in the last 8 rounds and 2nd in the last 4 rounds. At a projected ownership under 10%, he is worth a shot in your GPP lineups.
After Spieth and Kim in the overall tag count we have Gary Woodland. It is most definitely driven off his course history here as he has finishes of T6, T13, and T3 over the past three years. The price seems low because of this looking back at last season he has been under $8K on DraftKings in all but one tournament dating back to the Valspar Championship. J.J. Spaun and Jason Dufner are pretty close in tag counts and of the three I prefer Spaun who ranks inside the Top 30 in Bermuda putting over the last 24, 12, 8, and 4 rounds.
I wrote up Austin Cook above in the stats section and looks like he will be lower owned than I had expected as he sits outside the Top 25 in overall tags with under 10 start calls. He has been consistent in his rookie season with Top 25 finishes in four of his first five tournaments including a win at the RSM Classic. He doesn't stand out when looking at Bermuda rolling stats(40th-64th) but he isn't horrible either. He is 4th on my sheet in Strokes Gained: Putting overall, 11th in Strokes Gained Around the Green, 1st in Good Drive %, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, and 3rd in Birdie or Better %.
If you are using current form heavily in your model this week, Mac Hughes will most definitely not be popping for you. He missed three straight cuts in the fall portion of the season after coming off a successful rookie season where he picked up a win and made it all the way to the BMW Championship. He pops up when looking at Bermuda putting, Proximity, and Par 4 Scoring and should be around 1-3% owned this week. It's risky but he did look good here last year with a T27 finish.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
PGA sheet for this week:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dOcDUriSTQo_RRkezhxwsm4kKu7ZW02TNNLLBPt522M/edit?usp=sharing
great article and video as always... Keep it up....This is a must read if you are playing DFS golf..
Thanks Tim. Good luck this week.
Chris... where do you locate all of the stats? This is impressive