San Antonio Spurs' Tony Parker (9) and LaMarcus Aldridge (12) talk on the court during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Utah Jazz Tuesday, April 5, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Spurs won 88-86. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
A weird and wild day in the NBA. The Spurs are sitting their dudes, Westbrook is the most expensive player by $2,000+, and more! But we can still make some kickin' DFS lineups. Let's go!
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 60.82 DK - 64.2
It's hard to believe that Russ will be anything other than unanimously owned on this slate. He's the most expensive player on FanDuel by $2,700, and given the way FD has been priced this season, you're likely going to want to be paying up somewhere on any given slate. But this isn't even one of those spots where we should have to twist your arm. Westbrook has scored 58 or more FanDuel fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games, and in this one he'll have the very best match-up in the league for point guards. Phoenix combines the league's 3rd fastest pace with the 2nd worst defensive efficiency, and is particularly bad in transition. OKC has looked a lot better with Russ being FULL RUSS, and it's hard to imagine that will change in game where Westbrook's hustle will lead to a lot of free buckets.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.65 DK - 25.24
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.5 DK - 36.95
There are a couple of different directions you can go after paying up for Westbrook, and they basically depend on your salary needs. Jack is a solid if unspectacular punt play. As a starter he has demonstrated a 5x points per dollar floor on these prices in games that have stayed close, and Vegas thinks this one should be decided by 4.5 points. He's got upside room here as well if things break right. As for Schroder, he has been paying 5x points per dollar on these prices consistently, and getting a match-up with the league's fastest team in LA certainly sweetens the deal. It's true that the Lakers have played better on defense this season, but their gains are just relative to how terrible they've been in the past - they're still league average at best. Great spot for him here.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 18.84 DK - 19.82
This one is a late addition since the news about Tony Parker sitting came out after I started writing this up, but I don't want to edit the above text since some people will have already read it. Mills is the obvious punt play here assuming he starts in Parker's place. Murray only played 13 minutes when Parker sat against Philly, and Mills slaughtered these prices on 28 minutes in that one. A slam dunk punt play that enables Westbrook almost by himself.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.54 DK - 35.83
Shooting guard is one of the thinner positions today, and I can't say I am thrilled about these options. Still, Mitchell seems like a pretty solid one. He's getting 36 minute rotations when the game stays close, and while the Jazz have struggled this season, they are just 4.5 point dogs to Miami here. Miami plays slow, sure, and they play pretty good defense, but this is as much a pick about the other options at the position as anything else. I'll break down some of the other plays in a second, but I believe Mitchell has the highest points per dollar floor at the position.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.04 DK - 40
This one is not a floor play, so buckle up if you decide to go Booker here. There's no line on this game as of yet I assume because we don't know TJ Warren's status, but I have to believe it will be the largest spread on the day by a healthy margin. This is a big problem for Booker's safety - we've seen his minutes range from 29 in blowouts to 41 in close games, and as you can imagine, the production follows the opportunity. He scored 41 and 51 fantasy points in back to back games against Atlanta and Philadelphia, but then disappeared for 25 fantasy points in 29 minutes against Denver. Roberson will likely miss this one, which certainly sweetens the deal on Booker, but this play should still be viewed with skepticism, and I'd be looking to try and pay down with one of the below guys if the opportunity becomes available.
Consider Terrance Ferguson if he starts again, though he's obviously a candidate to disappear in the group he plays with.
Keep an eye on the Spurs' starting lineup. If Bryn Forbes gets the start, he's also a very solid play.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.83 DK - 29.61
No Kawhi? That about does it on it's own. The DK price is especially ridiculous. Anderson nearly paid these prices in 24 minutes in a game Kawhi played against Phoenix, and Parker's absence means he'll be running the point a bit as well. The Portland match-up is basically league average, so no worries there. No brainer here - just a price and opportunity mismatch.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 29.83 DK - 29.55
A steady high floor option, but once again not super exciting based on the match-up. I'll write this in a second, but I'm hoping that some other big opportunity guy vaults to the top of the list. If one doesn't though, Richardson can play as many as 40 minutes and handily pay prices like these. As I look through his game log it's hard to see where he's really hurt you on this FanDuel price - he even paid 5x points per dollar in just 28 minutes in the blowout with Brooklyn. All things considered, you could certainly do a hell of a lot worse on such a small slate, particularly since he lets you escape a shallow position cheaply.
If TJ Warren sits again, Joshua Jackson immediately skyrockets to the top of this list. As he missed for illness and not injury, though, I wouldn't count on it until you hear some news.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 41.74 DK - 41.36
Another beneficiary of the no-Kawhi party, though not quite for the same reasons as you might think. It's true that Aldridge's usage goes up with Kawhi off the floor, but the best thing this does is help the game be closer. Like a lot of Spurs, Aldridge's minutes are very much at the mercy of the game script. In close games, though, they've shown that they aren't shy about playing him for 36+ minute rotations. Portland isn't as bad against bigs as they have been in the past, unfortunately, but I still like the floor here at a position where it's tough to find value.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 34.56 DK - 33.44
After a long run of getting his minutes jerked around, I believe Favors is just systemically under-priced. Fully healthy and without Gobert, Favors should be in line for a 34 minute rotation, which makes him a modest value in all but the worst match-ups. The Heat come close to that - they're a bottom 5 spot for opposing power forwards - but I like Favors to hit value here anyway.
Lest you think I'm writing up luke-warm plays and calling it a day, let's just break down the position a little further, shall we?
Your other options:
Melo against Phoenix - A lot of people will go there, but I don't trust the minutes in a potential blowout and would prefer not to grab the 3rd option in a game where starters might not see their minutes.
Kelly Olynyk against Utah - his minutes are in doubt with James Johnson getting healthy, and the match-up is garbage.
Porzingis against Dallas - he has trouble paying these prices as is, and it's a brutally slow match-up.
Kuzma against ATL - have you seen what his minutes have been doing?
ATL - Ilyasova has upside against LAL, but I don't trust the minutes or the performance to be consistent. Wouldn't touch Collins.
Aminu against SA - Pass.
And then a bunch of other guys with minutes uncertainty. Just a weird position today.
Also considered: Marquess Chriss. The minutes have been there in back to back games, but it's hard to trust it for cash games in what could be a lopsided affair.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.36 DK - 29.69
I'm not sure I've ever recommended Steven Adams this season, and it's kind of odd to recommend him a breath after stating that I don't really like Melo as a 3rd banana in a game that could be a blowout. That should mean I REALLY don't like Adams, right? I dunno. I mean don't get me wrong, I won't be thrilled to see his name in the line-up necessarily, but have you SEEN the other options here? And this is an incredibly fast match-up... okay, let's break it down.
Guys whose minutes you can't trust:
Whiteside, Randle/Lopez, Nurkic, Gasol, anyone on Phoenix, Kanter... and, scene. Utah doesn't have a player who qualifies here, and neither does Dallas. Ridiculous slate for center, so Adams wins by default unless we hear that Tyson Chandler is sitting or something. Enjoy!
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View Comments
Aldridge is sitting out
Aldridge was out Friday for rest and is most likely playing today.
NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sxo9WhxRIHjc-v7pzt-iG-8SiRShNt0vYTsp39avUyU/edit?usp=sharing
These lineup picks are for last year... yet are eerily similar to what's going on this year
Thanks Chris!