Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
Welcome to NBA Friday! After a small Thursday night slate with just 2 games, we're looking at a healthy Friday night. With 10 games on the board and 4 of them with a 212+ O/U, there's plenty to dissect. Let's take a look at the top options at each position.
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 37.08 DK - 38.93
Welcome to another night of NBA DFS. After just 2 games last night, we're looking at a jam-packed 10 tonight. There are no clear games that stand above the rest and there's a ton to dissect. Point guard lives up to its potential as one of the best positions on the slate and there are a few different ways to go. On the high-end, Kyle Lowry is the move. This bout between the Bucks and Raptors will stay close and I expect an over/under well over 215. On the season, the Bucks rank 20th against PG's. Not great, but not bad. However, it's been getting a lot worse. They rank dead last over the last 5 and 28th over the last 10. Eric Bledsoe is no tremendous defender and can be taken advantage of with ease. Lowry is under $8k and will only need you about 40 in cash games. If this one stays close, I see him getting there like he did 2 games ago. Giannis or Middleton will be on DeRozan and funnel a healthy amount of shots his way. He put up 46 against these guys just a couple days ago and will look for a similar performance here. He's a safe play in all formats at a strong position.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.52 DK - 36.64
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.58 DK - 28.46
With Dion Waiters out, both of these guys are able to get substantial minutes and produce simultaneously. Last game, Dragic grabbed 36 and Johnson 33. The Heat are finally pressing Dragic over 30 minutes every night and it's paying dividends. He's put up 45 in back to back games and now gets a strong match-up with the Knicks. While they are a bad defense against almost every position, they struggle excessively against PG's. On the season, they rank 29th in the NBA with 47.7 FPPG allowed. Johnson will also play some SG when they're both on the floor. He's a bit cheaper and only needs you about 25 to come through. The Knicks and Heat are 2 below average defenses and it comes off to me as a game that will stay close down the stretch. I like Dragic more than Johnson just slightly, but I don't really think it's a big deal. Either of these guys is viable in all formats.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 40.87 DK - 41.69
We don't have any runaway superstar at the SG position, but there are plenty of $7k+ options that deserve attention. Tyreke Evans is our favorite of the bunch at $8k against a fast-paced Wizards squad. We know Tyreke Evans is on a different level this year and this should just be "another game". He puts up 40+ fantasy points in most games with the occasional flash of 60. The Wizards aren't the best possible match-up for an SG/SF, but it's close. On the season, they rank 22nd against them with 40.3 FPPG allowed. Evans will likely draw Porter for most of the game and Beal for the rest of it. He's a constant mismatch no matter the defender and this game is expected to stay close and be high-scoring. You can bank a 40 FP floor and a 60 ceiling here as long as it stays close and he gets the minutes. Shooting guard is somewhat busy, but there is nobody who stands above the rest.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.27 DK - 37.38
Donovan Mitchell is my top pick for rookie of the year and I'm not sure it's close. He's the clear leader of this Utah offense and is now putting up 30+ FP on a nightly basis. He often gets over 45 in close games and thrives in faster-paced contests. It's why he does so well with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup. The game speeds up and lends itself to far more possessions. Tonight, he faces off with a susceptible Nuggets perimeter defense. Gary Harris is a strong individual defender and the reason they rank so highly against SG's, but he doesn't have any help behind him or next to him. The Nuggets rank 23rd against the 3-point shot and 21st against the paint. They play at a top 10 NBA PACE and it's why the Jazz are seeing a 209 O/U. Mitchell is fairly priced on both sites and makes for a strong play in all formats. If you're looking to pay down even further, let's touch on a guy that is very under-priced.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.1 DK - 27.42
If you need to pay down a bit at SG, we still have a far too cheap Andrew Wiggins on our hands. He's concreted himself as a very different player from last year but still has a floor around 25 and a ceiling at 50. The Celtics aren't the greatest match-up on paper at 17th against SF's, but will keep it close and that's all that really matters when you can guarantee 38+ minutes. Wiggins has been putting up at least 25 on every single night and has shown a lot of 40-50 point upside. Matching up with Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown won't be easy, but he'll see the weaker of defenders with Butler next to him. His floor is continuously at 25 and doesn't need to be changed here. I still prefer Mitchell and Adams at SG, but Wiggins is a great pivot at a far too cheap tag.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 57.07 DK - 57.3
Our first superstar of the night is going to come at SF with Giannis Antetokounmpo. While we have a 10-game slate on our hands, we are missing most of the league's superstars. For reference, Embiid is the 2nd most expensive option. For that reason alone, he's hard to ignore. When you consider the elite match-up and expected close game, it's nearly impossible. He could outscore the field by 25 to no surprise. Looking at DVP is useless for a guy like Giannis. The guy who lines up on paper is rarely tasked with the responsibility. He saw a mixture of Powell, Anunboy, and DeRozan when these 2 teams played just a week ago and dominated all of them. Though falling short of 50 fantasy points, he was 1 rebound and 3 assists short of a triple-double. He's never a must at the price, but will be hard to stay away from in cash games.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 41.21 DK - 40.84
Prior to resting last game, Kawhi played 30 minutes and put up 50 fantasy points against the Knicks. He is fully healthy and is going to slowly see increased minutes and a couple days of rest here and there. While there is a slight concern that this one is a blowout, that's tough to predict with just a -12 spread. If the Spurs are up by 12 with 3 minutes left, the starters are getting their full minutes. If that ends up the case, Kawhi Leonard would see 30+ minutes against the Suns at $8k. He looked perfectly fine last game and didn't seem to miss a step on offense. The Suns are an atrocious defense as a whole and play at the league's fastest PACE. T.J. Warren is a phenomenal perimeter defender, but he has literally 0 help. The Suns play way too fast and you can only do so much. Especially against Kawhi Leonard. He's not extremely safe, but I', willing to play him in all formats at the price.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 33.83 DK - 33.97
We've yet to touch on this Lakers game yet, but it deserves some attention. With a 217 spread and the Hornets being favored by just 2, Vegas thinks this game stays high and tight. Both of these teams are below average on defense and don't have any problem giving up big games. Brandon Ingram is the lead dog on this Lakers offense and while his minutes have been down over the last 2, expect to see another 34+ tonight. The offense runs through him with Lonzo Ball out and he'll touch it on most possessions. MKG is a fine defender on the perimeter, but Ingram is still better on offense and will give him fits with his length. Ingram has seen a slight price drop and only needs about 35 to hit value. It shouldn't be much of an issue if Vegas is correct. Ingram is a guy I'll personally have a ton of exposure to in all formats.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 34.1 DK - 33.14
With Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, Derrick Favors turns into the go-to big man. He's putting up a consistent 25-30 fantasy points on most nights with a ceiling that sits around 50. He has no problem getting to 35 minutes in a close game and is a lock for value at that point. This Nuggets interior has a lot of offensive firepower, but they don't offer a whole lot on D. Against power forwards, they rank 22nd on the season with 46.2 FPPG allowed. They rank dead last over the last 10 with 75 FPPG allowed. While that number will go down, the defense, or lack thereof, by Trey Lyles is a big reason. Favors will dominate him in the post and have no problem rebounding. With Gobert out of the lineup, he's a lock for 25 FP with the potential for 50 if it stays close. At a weak power forward position, there isn't much opportunity cost and he's well worth the dime.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 27.85 DK - 28.33
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 21.76 DK - 22.39
Both of these guys to be considered at very different price points. Let's start with Tatum, the more obvious option. Seeing 30-40 minutes a night, Tatum has been one of the more consistent rookies to date. He's typically around 25 FP, though does have some nice rookie variance mixed in. He'll continue seeing over 30 minutes and has a stellar match-up with the T-Wolves and Taj Gibson. As for Morris, he's close to minimum price and still returning from injury. He got all the way up to 24 last game and has to be in play if we think he sees the same tonight. He's a great DFS player when on the floor and deserves attention at a weak PF spot. Taj Gibson is an extremely athletic defender and both of these guys will be able to use their athleticism with ease. I will have plenty of personal exposure to both of these guys.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.16 DK - 41.72
Center isn't all that great tonight and Dwight Howard stands out as a safe option. Against his former team in the Lakers, he should dominate with ease. Julius Randle has been picking up most of the minutes and has no business staying with DH12 in the paint. Andrew Bogut is a lot bigger and more conventional, but will mightily struggle with the athleticism of Dwight. On most nights, Howard is a GPP only play because of his volatility. Tonight, in a game with a 217 O/U and -2.5 spread, he should be in there a ton. He puts up 45+ with ease when hot and will get over 60 a time or two on the season. It's probably not tonight, but the Lakers are close to an ideal match-up and his price is perfectly fine across the board.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.73 DK - 31.14
As of late, Jusuf Nurkic has been playing like the guy we were looking for all season long. He's put up 40+ fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 and 35 in the other. The minutes have been inconsistent, but he played 37 in a close one with the Bulls. The Atlanta Hawks are pitiful against centers, ranking 27th with 42.8 FPPG allowed. Miles Plumlee has been getting the majority of minutes with Dewayne Dedmon out and he's been terrible. Nurkic is going to continue shooting the ball and this is a top 5 match-up. His price is yet to rise and he has plenty of upside in any format. Good luck tonight and please comment below if you have any questions!
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View Comments
NBA sheet for tonight:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sxo9WhxRIHjc-v7pzt-iG-8SiRShNt0vYTsp39avUyU/edit?usp=sharing
Chris, can you add rebounds to the sheet?
Wow, can't believe I forgot to add that. Will be added for sure. Thanks Jason!!