Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Sentry Tournament of Champions

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Happy New Year fantasy golf fans. The 2018 portion of the season kicks off this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions and while it's a small field/no cut event, GOLF IS BACK!! There will be 34 golfers, all winners in 2017,  traveling to Kapalua to take on the Plantation Course which is a unique Par 73 setup that stretches out to 7,452 yards. It consists of just three Par 3's with 11 Par 4's and four Par 5's and has seen an average score of -21 over the last five years so Birdie's will most definitely be at a premium. As you can see with the hole composition below(via Fantasy National Golf Club), five of the Par 4's fall between 350 and 400 yards so I will be looking closely at the players who excelled from that range in 2017, especially down the stretch and into the fall season.

The fairways are very wide and forgiving which will take a bit away from the Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Accuracy element and although the greens are also larger than average, I am using Strokes Gained: Approach with an emphasis on Proximity. The greens are very undulated and slow so players who can get the ball closer to the pin consistently will have a way better shot at making Birdies. I will also be looking at players who are consistently better putters overall(Strokes Gained: Putting) and combining that with three-putt avoidance.

Course History is another key this week and right behind the stats model this week. There are 14 players who have never played in this tournament and only three players(Spieth, DJ, Dufner) who have played here more than twice in the last five years. Current form is last up in the overall model but one thing I will be looking at is how active a player has been since the end of the 2016-17 season.

With all that said, let's take a look at the course snapshot and stats in my model and then jump in and take a look at some of my top plays based on Course History, Current Form, and Stats.

The Course

Plantation Course
Par 73 - 7,452 Yards

**Click pic above or HERE to check out the hole by hole breakdown over at PGATour.com **

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach + Proximity
• Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring(Especially from 350-400 Yards)
• Strokes Gained: Putting

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

Top Course History Targets

Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($10,900)
FanDuel ($12,300)

Spieth definitely tops the course history list this week as he has played here at the Tournament of Champions three times, finishing 3rd last year, 2nd in 2015, and winning in 2016. He has combined for a total score of -64 and leads all golfers in the field in Strokes Gained: Total(2.6 per round), Strokes Gained: Short Game(1.5 per round), Strokes Gained: Approach(.6 per round), and Strokes Gained: Putting(1.3 per round). He is also Top 10 in every Strokes Gained category on Fantasy National here at the Plantation course. He finished last season strong in the Playoffs with a 2nd at the Northern Trust, 2nd at the Dell Technologies Championship, T7 at the BMW Championship, and T7 at the Tour Championship. I feel he is primed for another huge season and it will start this week with a win in Hawaii.

Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (10/1)
Draftkings ($9,800)
FanDuel ($11,700)

Matsuyama tailed off during the playoffs with finishes of MC, T23, T47, and T26 but started to trend up in the fall portion of the 2017-18 season with a T5 at the CIMB Classic and T5 at the most recent event, the Hero Challenge. If his early season success is anything like last year, the rest of the Tour better be on alert as he picked up three wins(WGC-HSBC, Hero, WMPO) and two runner-ups, one here at the Tournament of Champions, in his first eight tournaments. He has now played here twice and also finished 3rd back in 2015 so he appears to be very comfortable here at the Plantation Course. Also positive is that he ranks 5th on my sheet in Strokes Gained: Approach, 9th in Proximity, and 6th in Birdie or Better %. The only thing that keeps him from winning more is the putting(31st in SG: P) so if he can get the ball close making the putts a little bit easier, I can see another Top 5 finish here and it's also a nice addition that he comes in under $10K on DraftKings.

Top Current Form Targets

Cameron Smith
World Golf Ranking (#61)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($8,200)

He picked up his first career victory on the PGA Tour last season at the Zurich Classic with partner Jonas Blixt(team event) and while he closed out the 2016-17 season with missed cuts in seven of his final nine tournaments, he comes into this week with some momentum. He played two events in the fall portion of the new season finishing T5 at the CIMB Classic and 3rd at the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges. This will be his first time playing here at the Plantation Course which explains his mid-range price tag on both sites but I would avoid for cash games and stick to using him in GPP lineups this week.

Kevin Kisner
World Golf Ranking (#26)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($10,500)

While Kisner didn't fare so well at the Hero Challenge(T12) in early December, he started off the fall portion of the 2017-18 season with a T4 at the RSM Classic while shooting all four rounds in the 60's. He is also coming off a successful 2016-17 season where he finished with a win at the Dean & Deluca Invitational, two runner-up finishes(Zurich Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational), eight total Top 10 finishes and made the cut in 25 of his 28 events(89%). This will be his second run at the Plantation Course after he finished 9th in 2016 and also has some stats to back up the pick. He sits mid-pack in Strokes Gained: Approach(16th) but is excellent around the green ranking 4th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He also stands out ranking 6th in Proximity, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. He is a little pricey over on FanDuel but is in play in all formats over on DraftKings in the mid $8K range.

Who the Stats Like

Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (7/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)
FanDuel ($12,500)

First things first. The #1 player in the world and four-time winner last season is somehow fourth in DraftKings salary this week. Yes, please! He also sits fourth in my stats model this week with elite rankings of 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 7th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 1st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee(not in model), 3rd in Proximity, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, and 5th in Birdie or Better %. He has also played here at the Plantation Course for the Tournament of Champions in four of the last five years and finished Top 10 each time including a win back in 2013. He and Spieth are my top players to pay up for this week in all formats.

Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#48)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($8,600)

With a small field event, there is limited value plays to help get in multiple stars but one that stands out to me this week, at least from a stats perspective, is Kyle Stanley. He picked up his win last season at the Quicken Loans National and also finished with eight total Top 10's and was a stats darling all season. On my sheet he ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in three-putt avoidance, 2nd in Proximity, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, and 14th in Birdie or Better %. He is also a player that has been busy during the fall portion of the 2017-18 season and has been trending up after a T21 at the CIMB Classic, T19 at the CJ Cup, and T5 at the WGC-HSBC Champions. Looking at FanShareSports, it is almost safe to say he will be under-owned this week as he currently sits with just two tags(1 for start). I wouldn't trust him in cash games but will be using him in GPP formats for sure.

PGA Cheatsheet Video Overview

Tournament Update Thread

**Weather Update**

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.