Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid in action during an NBA basketball game against the Miami Heat, Monday, Nov. 21, 2016, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Happy New Year's Eve! If you're here that means your NYE is shaping up to be a lot like mine, which is to say, you'll be jamming in as much football during the day before ultimately spiriting away to a bathroom to put your lineups in for basketball. You're among friends here, my friend. No judgment. Let's go.
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Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 62.73 DK - 66.58
With Paul George ruled out, you can bet that you'll see some Russ chalk once again. It's not the greatest match-up in the world. Dallas plays a bottom 5 pace in the league, and while they haven't been amazing defensively, it's not quite enough to overcome their slow pace. It shouldn't matter for Westbrook, though. He shot 34 times when George missed their last game, and with Melo looking more and more corpse-like the Thunder have precious few options when it comes to putting points on the board. Expect full-on ball-hog Russ, and understand that you're getting something like a $500-$1000 discount on his presumed usage in this game.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 44.83 DK - 46.11
Looking at Kyrie's recent game log (and heck, season averages) isn't going to inspire a lot of confidence on these prices. There's more to the story than that, though. He's averaging just 32 minutes per game this season, but in close games recently he's been playing 36+. There's some blowout risk here to be sure, but on a relatively short slate, I'm willing to look past it. The fact is that Brooklyn is still one of the very best match-ups in the league for opposing point guards. They're the running at the league's 3rd fastest PACE and they own the 7th worst defensive efficiency. I think Kyrie makes a reasonable high floor, high upside option today.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.04 DK - 38.08
Clarkson moved to the bench in the Lakers' last game, but he still played 35 minutes and paid these prices handily. His DFS ownership took a nose dive, but it was just so obvious that the Lakers rely on his scoring to get anything done offensively with Lonzo Ball sidelined. Still, you're taking on a fair amount of risk any time you try and run a bench player out there on $7k+ salaries, especially in a game with significant blowout potential. He does seem like a good play on DK though, and he's a great tournament option wherever you look.
Keep an eye on the Kris Dunn situation - if he sits, Jerian Grant will be an excellent punt play at near minimum salaries.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 57.75 DK - 60.34
Speaking of some of the best match-ups in the league, it'll be hard to not play Harden today. Chris Paul still isn't at full strength, and the Lakers combine the league's fastest PACE with a league average defense. I'm hoping Harden is still embarrassed after that pitiful display in Boston, and I think he'll thrive in this fast paced contest. It'll be tough to pick between him and Westbrook - both are in insane spots.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.46 DK - 28.34
When the going gets tough in picking big money plays, we have to look at our other options at the position. And Holiday seems like a fair one. Holiday played 36 and 37 minutes in each of his last two games, handily paying these paltry prices in each of those. Blowouts are always a concern when it comes to the Bulls, but the short nature of the slate and the fact that Vegas is only favoring the Wiz by 7 makes me feel like this is a good enough spot. Holiday seems like the one guy on this team that the coaching staff actually trusts, so I'll go ahead and trust him as well.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.36 DK - 29.93
Redick is already something of a forgotten man in DFS circles as we saw him play fewer minutes, miss a couple of games, and then play limited minutes in his return. Before he hurt his hamstring he had been steadily playing 35 minutes, and steadily dropping 5x-7x points per dollar on these prices regardless of the match-up. Today he'll have one of the best match-ups possible, going up against a Phoenix team that owns the league's 3rd fastest pace and a bottom 4 defensive efficiency.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.82 DK - 29.97
It's always nice when we get a small slate with so many great match-ups. Ariza tops this list simply because of a lack of great options at the position, and his job security. I get that the Rockets have been extra goofy in these last two games, but the plan on an average night is to run Ariza for 38-42 minutes, and that's a hell of a lot of run for a guy who actually does stuff and costs $5,200 on FanDuel. It can be tough to play Ariza in bad match-ups because his consistent run leaves him fairly priced, but he's a value here to be sure.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 43.01 DK - 42.61
A rich man's Trevor Ariza! The match-up isn't quite as good, but the opportunity is arguably better. Thibs has been back to his old ones all season, running his big guns out there for high 30s to low 40s minutes per game. He's topped 41 minutes and averaged 45+ fantasy points in his last 3 games, and Oladipo's likely absence will leave Lance Stephenson on Butler duty here - which is a good thing.
Speaking of which, I assume a lot of people will pay up for Lance Stephenson here, but I'm not sure it's necessary when you have Butler and Ariza in good match-ups at fair prices. It's always tough to determine how much is too much for these flavor of the day types, and $6,600 feels like a lot to pay against a Minnesota team that's playing a bottom 10 pace. Still, I don't think it's a bad play if it's a direction you'd like to go.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.74 DK - 33.94
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.6 DK - 31.19
The two safest PF options, in my humble opinion. Melo's price doesn't move in spite of George missing this one because he was pretty bad last game, but I have to believe he's got more in him than what he showed against Milwaukee. I just have a tough time believing his scoring potential should go DOWN on a team that starts Alex Abrines, Andre Roberson, and Steven Adams when a guy who shoots 17 times a game goes down. I'll happily run him out there for round 2 today. As for Taj - he's a similarly priced option with arguably a higher floor (if lower ceiling) thanks to the wildly consistent minutes. It's unclear to me why the sites refuse to raise his prices to meet his opportunity, but in the meantime I'm happy to play him in a plus match-up vs. Thad Young.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 27.09
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 36.39 DK - 36.88
More speculative and conditional plays. Anderson looks interesting here even if the Rockets are at full strength thanks to the fast pace of the Lakers, but his value goes up dramatically if Nene were to miss once again. The Lakers are another team that shouldn't punish the Rockets for going small with him at the 5, and I think he'd be very attractive in that case. As for Kuzma, he's only risky because of the potential blowout here. He seems to be at full strength after the quad contusion issue, and we all know that he'll run for 38+ minutes when the game stays close. You're getting a $900 discount on his peak price here, and that could very well be a value even with the blowout potential.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 53.95 DK - 56.17
Yet another phenomenal big money option today - it's going to be difficult to choose between these guys. Embiid butchered the suns for 22/12 with 4 blocks in their last meeting, and it makes sense. The Suns' bigs are either old (Chandler) or too erratic (Chriss, Len) to keep up with Embiid's polished offensive game, and it would be a surprise to see him do anything other than go off here. Great option at a shallow position.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.45 DK - 24.58
Do you believe? Chandler appears to be in line for a high 20s minutes rotation right now, and in the last 2 games where he played that rotation he put up 5x and 6x points per dollar on these prices, respectively. The Suns will absolutely need his defensive presence against Embiid and the Sixers' compliment of tall dudes who can get to the rim (hey, Ben Simmons!) - and I think the only thing keeping Chandler off the court here would be foul trouble or a blowout. Foul trouble is absolutely a concern here, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him rise to the occasion and trade blows with Embiid. He put up 41 fantasy points in their last meeting with Philly, and the coaching staff saw fit to leave him out there for 36 minutes. He seems like a great option if you wind up finding it difficult to fit expensive guys across a ton of different positions.
Do you trust Julius Randle's minutes on a team that seems to hate him personally? If so, he could be an excellent value tonight. It looked like the plan was to run him out there for 30+ minutes before his last game got out of hand, and people might still be sleeping on him. Might be risky for cash games, though.
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