Anthony Davis is either doing this, or in the locker room. Here's to him doing this tonight.
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.32 DK - 37.35
In the absence of Lonzo Ball, Jordan Clarkson picked up 35 and 37 minutes. He demolished value in both games and now sees his price rise to $7k. With Lonzo Ball already ruled out for this one, you can lock Clarkson in for another 35 minutes and 30+ fantasy points. He gets a match-up against a Clippers squad with a weak defender in Austin Rivers at the helm. The Clippers are a pretty strong team on paper against point guards, but a lot of those numbers have to do with Milos Teodosic and Patrick Beverley. Rivers is the worst defender of the 3 and doesn't have all that much help behind him with the 22nd ranked interior defense in the NBA. Clarkson turns into the 1st or 2nd options on this team when Ball is out and is a near lock for cash game value.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 43.89 DK - 45.45
Wall has played 38 and 33 minutes in his last two games, so it's safe to assume he's fully healthy. He's on 3-day rest now and should be in line to play big minutes against an elite Rockets squad. That elite Rockets squad will likely be without Chris Paul, who is their only strong perimeter defender. If Paul does get ruled out, Wall is going to have his way with this defense. He hasn't been great coming off of injury, but played up in the big game against the Celtics. He will get another 35 minutes here assuming it's close and won't have any issue getting open. Aside from the CP3 injury, the Rockets are coming off of a back-to-back and are also missing their big man. Wall should be able to do whatever he wants in this fast-paced game and should walk away with 45+ fantasy points. His price is down from usual and I don't think it's for good reason. He is a lock for 40 here with the upside for so much more. Keep an eye on the news and jump on John Wall in all formats if CP3 remains out.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.07 DK - 30.35
Victor Oladipo has already been ruled out for this game, so at least we can plan accordingly. He missed last game and it allowed a whole bunch of guys to jump on and hit value. Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, and Bojan Bogdanovic all saw extended run and can be once again considered in all formats. Collison is a very consistent player when given the minutes and can be banked on for at least 35 of them with Oladipo out. Those 35 minutes will also be a lot more productive than normal with the ball in his hands a lot more. The Bulls rank 21st against point guards and while Kris Dunn is a solid defender, he takes a lot of chances. Collison is a rock solid guard who can be counted on to produce when given the opportunity and will get more than enough of it tonight. Consider him a solid play in all formats.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 61.97 DK - 65.81
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.97 DK - 33.92
Chris Paul ended up out last night and we saw both of these guys play as expected. Harden got to 39 minutes and Gordon 40. They each played well and has tougher match-ups than tonight. I don't think the Rockets want to keep playing these guys 4o minutes, but they don't have a choice until Chris Paul returns. They have another match-up against an Eastern Conference contender that is going to put up a huge fight. Vegas hasn't dropped a line on this game yet, but it'll be over a 220 total with a spread under 6. John Wall and Brad Beal are both average defenders and Gordon/Harden will be splitting time at the 1 and 2. Expect another 35+ minutes out of both of these guys and value is almost certain. It's tough to predict value on a guy almost $12k, but he will get over 60 fantasy points if the game stays close.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.26 DK - 38
Lou Williams is the clear go-to option on this offense with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. He casually puts up 50 FP on some nights and ho-hums to 30-35 in the others. He sees a stellar match-up tonight against a Lakers team that doesn't play much defense. They definitely have a solid perimeter defender in KCP, but he's the only one. You can't do much in basketball as a lone defender and it's why the Lakers rank 18th in the league against SG's. They have one of the softer interiors in the league and may be getting even weaker with Kyle Kuzma questionable. Vegas hasn't dropped a line on this game yet, but I expect it to be around a 215-220 total with a spread at -4 or 5. His price is fair across the industry and he'll need to get you around 4o to pay off. If this one stays close and Blake Griffin doesn't make a miraculous comeback, I think it's in the books.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 56.04 DK - 56.61
There are a few different ways to pay up on this slate and Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the best. We know how consistent he is as a DFS player and this is an elite match-up. Sure, Paul George is a great defender and even more intimidating on paper, but this is not a normal SF. Giannis Antetokounmpo is not going to be contained by Paul George and will have another 55+ fantasy point performance. He put on a show last night with a 22/10, but didn't have a good fantasy performance at all. Assuming this one stays close, look for a bounce-back tonight. The Thunder play a lot faster than the Bucks and this will be an extreme pace-up game for Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo is expensive and going to prohibit you elsewhere, but could very well outscore the SF field by 15 if Durant disappoints at a similar price.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.84 DK - 33.76
Stephenson saw 36 minutes with Oladipo out last game and dominated the ball. He finished with 43 fantasy points and ended up proving that he'll be the playmaker when Oladipo is out. The match-up with the Bulls is a phenomenal one, as they allow the most FP per minute to opposing shooting guards (where he will play for the most part). Small forward is obviously one of the stronger positions on the day and Stephenson is right up there as a top value on the entire slate. He's going to once again see 35+ minutes and take 15+ shots. He's under $6k on both sites and only needs you around 35 to come through in tournaments. He's going to be popular and I really don't care. The guys love to shoot and will have every opportunity to do so with 'Dipo out. If the game stays close, expect another 30-40 fantasy points as a floor out of Lance.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.95 DK - 30.01
In cash games, it's tough to pass up 38+ minutes in a close/fast game. He's not nearly as active as he was a few years ago, but will hit his corner 3's and fill up the stat sheet elsewhere. He's consistently around 25 fantasy points, but will occasionally vary with a 35+. The Wizards are an average individual match-up for SF's, but play fast and this game is expected to be a DFS gold mine. Ariza gives you exposure to it at a fair price without much risk. He needs you about 25 in cash games and 30 in tournaments. Ariza is locked into his minutes whether Chris Paul plays or not, but could see an extra 2 or 3 shots. I do like Giannis and Stephenson a lot more for the $, but Ariza is a cash game stud if you need a safe 20+.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 52.29 DK - 52.38
This is just a little too cheap for a healthy Anthony Davis. I don't intend to dive deep into this, but how stupid is Alvin Gentry? Can anyone feasibly explain why Anthony Davis was getting 40 minutes a night before getting hurt? For a guy that is obviously not the most durable, it makes sense to keep his legs quick with 30-35 a night. It's just not necessary when you have DeMarcus Cousins to force this guy into an early career. There isn't a guy in the league who should be getting 40 minutes a night, let alone a 7 foot 2 freak of nature who has legs longer than most humans. Back to tonight. Davis put up 70 fantasy points against the Nets last time out and reminded everyone that he's still a top 5 DFS player. The Mavs are good on paper against bigs, but it has a lot more to do with the PACE they play at. Anthony Davis is going to dominate Dirk when in the game and everyone else is just smaller. Davis is going to have another 45+ fantasy points with a ceiling we can't really predict. There are a few great ways to pay up tonight and it'll be hard for me to stay away from AD if no more value opens up at the position.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 15.94 DK - 15.22
Kyle Kuzma is currently questionable, so here we have the guy who will end up benefiting if he's out. Kuzma typically sees 35-40 minutes, so there will be plenty to go around. Aside from Nance Jr. you can look at guys like Julius Randle and Brandon Ingram to pick up a few. Nance himself should get to 30 minutes at a minimum and easily pay off his close to minimum salary across the industry. Remember, this is no typical backup. This is a guy who was in a similar role and putting up similar numbers a year ago. He'll be covered by either a He has more than enough talent to go around and will dominate when given the opportunity. If Kuzma is ruled out, Nance is a guy I'll look to have in 100% of lineups.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.32 DK - 31.32
Carmelo isn't as exciting as he's been for more than a decade, but he's fitting into this offense and realizing his role as the number 3 quite nicely. He's not ball-hogging, and he's most certainly not demanding the ball from Westbrook or George. He's sitting around 30 fantasy points on most nights and sees a slightly above average match-up against the Bucks. On paper, John Henson gets it done. Carmelo is just a very abnormal PF and is going to press his buttons on the perimeter. At $6k, I find it hard to leave Melo out in cash games. He only needs you 25-30 and we know the upside for 50 is there on any night. The Bucks could very well be focused with the 2 studs and leave a hot Melo unattended. The game is expected to stay close and he'll see his typical 30-35 minutes. Power forward is a decent spot and I like Nance Jr. a lot more if Kuzma is out, but that's far from a guarantee at this point.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.59 DK - 39.65
Center isn't the most exciting position on the slate. We fortunately at least have a few options, but it could be MUCH better. DeAndre Jordan is the clear way to go for the optimizer and I have to agree. Even with Blake Griffin questionable to return, I doubt he sees over 20 minutes even if he does. Jordan is a stone cold lock for 15 rebound when given the opportunity and will have nobody to contend with tonight. The Lakers are going to try to throw the old Andrew Bogut out there, but I think it's about time he gave it up. Get your money big man. This game is one we want to target a lot and the Lakers side is a little bit easier with the injuries. Jordan is my favorite way to target the Clippers and is elite at Center. Mark him in for 15 rebounds, a double/double, and 35 fantasy points. If the game stays close and Jordan hits a groove, he can easily hit 50 in this type of match-up.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.37 DK - 29.55
Willie Cauley-Stein is an extremely productive DFS player when given the minutes. You just don't know if he'll end up at 35 or 22. Against a Suns squad that incites speed and size, I'm expecting closer to the 35. The Suns play faster than anyone in the league and a guy like WCS benefits greatly. He's been at 36+ fantasy points in 3 straight games and this match-up is the best yet. The Suns rank 2nd to worst in all of the NBA against centers, allowing 44 FPPG. His price is getting up there, but deservedly so. There is A LOT more safety in DeAndre Jordan, but WCS will be lesser owned and has a ton of upside. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below with any questions!
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NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sxo9WhxRIHjc-v7pzt-iG-8SiRShNt0vYTsp39avUyU/edit?usp=sharing