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Paul has missed the last 2 games, but came into today questionable. It keeps James Harden and Eric Gordon close to 40 minutes and elite plays in all formats in an expected close game with the Celtics. Kyrie Irving will also see much worse defense on the perimeter.
Jeff Teague missed quite a few games earlier on the season and we know exactly where to go. Tyus Jones will jump in for 34+ minutes and is the best value play on the slate. Jimmy Butler and KAT may also see and extra2-3 shots, but Jones doesn't mind shooting. Teague isn't a huge usage guy on this offense, so look at Jones as the main benefactor.
Ish Smith jumped into the same role last year and ended up close to $7k before Jackson came back. He's going to get 30+ minutes again this season, but they do have a viable backup in Langston Galloway that will probably pick up 20 minutes at the 1 and 2. Smith is still a guy I love in all formats and will have a lot of next to Tyus Jones. The Magic are a below averages defense and Elfrid Payton is nothing to run away from. Smith takes less shots than RJax, and most of them will go to Harris and Drummond.
Gordon has been out forever, so we know what to expect. If Gordon does play, he'll take away some minutes from Biyombo and Payne, but we have no idea if Gordon will even see 20 minutes. The Pistons are one of the slower teams on this slate and this isn't a sitution I'm a big fan of in general. Biyombo is a terrific option in all formats if you need a cheap center.
Both of these guys are huge pieces of this offense take up a lot of shots + minutes. With Embiid, his absence clearly benefits a couple guys. Richaun Holmes would pick up 22+ minutes and be a very strong cash game play against Portland. Dario Saric, Trevor Booker, and Amir Johnson would split the rest and pick up an extra 5-7 each. Saris and Booker are guys I have interest in large-field tournaments. As for Covington, his situation is a little more blurry. Justin Anderson is the backup, but he doesn't play. I wouldn't be surprised to see 25 minutes out of nowhere from a pretty good DFS player, but it's tough to predict. I think Redick and Simmons will both see an extra 5-7 minutes and are already going to see a boost in usage if Embiid is out. Embiid and Covington are options 1 and 3, so everyone that gets minutes is going to see a higher usage than normal and is underpriced in turn.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 11.1 DK - 10.73
Real easy one to figure out here. Jeff Teague missed out on a lot of the season earlier and Tyus Jones got up to 40 minutes a couple times. You can lock him in for 35+ here and an absolute lock for cash game value. At $3500 on both sites, Jones only needs you about 20 in cash games. He should get that in 1 half with ease. Eric Bledsoe is an average defender and the Bucks don't have much protection at the rim. Tyus Jones should be in every lineup tonight as I really don't see a scenario where he busts. Get him into 100% of lineups and get above the field.
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