Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/28/17

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Point guard

Ish Smith FD - $5500 DK - $4900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 20.34 DK - 20.43

Reggie Jackson sprained his ankle last game and will be out for the next 6-8 weeks. Fortunately for the Pistons, they have a backup PG in Ish Smith that is just as good as RJax. They play similar minutes on most nights and Ish Smith has been the better career FP/min guy. He'll now move into the starting lineup and play 35+ minutes on most nights until Jackson comes back. I expect him to be close to $6k very soon, so this discount is insane. He's my favorite PG on this slate and a guy I'll look to have in 100% of lineups. The Magic are nothing to be afraid of and Smith can be locked in for 25-40 fantasy points. I love him in all formats and expect this to be obvious come the next few days.

Kyrie Irving FD - $8600 DK - $8000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.33 DK - 42.34

Now for 2 of the better expensive options at the position. Chris Paul and Damian Lillard are the 2 most pricey guys, but both come with some serious uncertainty. Kyrie Irving is the first guy who can be played in all formats without worrying about health or how many minutes he may get restricted to. Irving has been one of the more consistent players in the entire league this season and is almost never having any bad games. The Celtics control the PACE of most games and Irving has his role solidified. He's flashed plenty of upside as well with 50+, but is simply a much different DFS player than he was in past seasons. The match-up may either be elite or bad. If Chris Paul plays, I have a lot less interest in Kyrie. Sure, he can still put up 25, but they will be incredibly difficult and the upside is not there. If Chris Paul is out, it'll be Eric Gordon and James Harden at the 1. Both are horrible defenders and Kyrie will have a field day on either. Keep an eye out for news and adjust accordingly.

Eric Bledsoe FD - $7600 DK - $7100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 34.56 DK - 35.04

If Chris Paul plays or Kyrie simply doesn't do it for you, Eric Bledsoe is a great pivot for a little cheaper. This game is going to be the 2nd or 3rd most popular DFS-wise, but probably shouldn't be. With a 215 total and just a -3 spread, it's expected to be high-scoring and remains extremely close. On paper, the match-up with Jeff Teague and the Timberwolves is average. He's a pretty good man-man defender, but doesn't have any legitimate help behind with a weak Towns and Gibson interior. Bledsoe has become a huge part of this offense and is putting up 35+ fantasy points like nobody's business.The T-Wolves will look for Jimmy Butler to funnel offense away from Antetkounmpo and while it won't work, Bledsoe will get plenty of his own shots. He's a safe bet for 30 fantasy points with the upside for 60 if it stays close and he gets hot.

 

 

Shooting Guard

James Harden FD - $12500 DK - $11400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 60.24 DK - 64.22
Eric Gordon FD - $5800 DK - $5800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 30.8 DK - 32.91

As we sit, Chris Paul is questionable to play with a leg injury. If he plays, both of these guys are still in play, but not to the same degree. They would both see regular minutes and must be considered in a close game against the Celtics. Vegas hasn't dropped a line on the game because of the CP3 injury, but you can safely bet on a 215+ over/under and a spread under 5. Both of these team are elite and want to get a win against the other. If Chris Paul ends up missing the game like we expect, both Eric Gordon and James Harden jump into elite plays in all formats. They will split time at the 1 and 2 and both play close to 40 minutes. The Celtics are a fine match-up for guards and these aren't guys who will be shut down by average defenders. Harden is a lock for 35 minutes and in turn 60 fantasy points if it stays close. Gordon is always a bit risky, but is going to get a guaranteed 15-20 shots if Paul is out. With so much volume, it'll be tough for even him to miss value in cash games. He's still under $6k on both sites and has been uber consistent with CP3 on the shelf this year. All in all, with CP3 out, Harden would be the top superstar on this slate.

C.J. McCollum FD - $7100 DK - $7000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.57 DK - 37.95

We looked past Damian Lillard at PG, but you have to at least consider him in tournaments. It is his 1st game back from injury, however, so we don't really know how many minutes he'll get. Instead, we're going to stick with C.J. McCollum, who is locked into 33-38 minutes in an elite match-up against the 76ers. The Sixers rank 4th worst in the league against opposing SG's with 48.1 FPPG. McCollum may see a couple fewer shots with Lillard back, but 15+ is still in the works as a guarantee. This game is expected to stay close and will have a total over 215. McCollum is an extremely safe bet for 30 fantasy points with the upside for so much more if he gets hot. The price is perfectly fine on both sites and he'll need you 35-40 in tournaments. Against a 76ers squad with J.J. Redick at the 2, he can get it done. With Harden and Gordon being in very different price points, it just depends on how you're building your roster here. If you need a mid-priced option, just go McCollum and leave your lineup how you like it.

Small forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11900 DK - $10900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 56.1 DK - 55.13

We now get to what is probably the worst position on this slate. In all honestly, Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't in an amazing spot. He's not in a below-average one either, but a somewhat-fast game against Jimmy Butler isn't necessarily easy. With that being said, we see him put up 50+ fantasy points on anyone that stands in front of him. We know the game will be close and Giannis will get up to at least 35 minutes. He's a lock for 50 fantasy points with the upside for 80 if he can get ahead of Butler early. I do expect Antetokounmpo to be popular because of the SF scarcity, but I do think he's a little more expensive than we'd hope. This is a pretty strict slate and he forces you to pay down in an uncomfortable spot or two. We'll touch on two other options in case you do want to fade, but you have to understand it's risky. If Giannis goes and has one of his 70-80 FP games, you're way behind the curve and will need to have an explosion elsewhere. Personally, I'm looking at 50% exposure in both formats.

Jonathon Simmons FD - $5800 DK - $6400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.53 DK - 29.86

Jonathan Simmons was hilariously bad against the Heat, putting up a measly 4 fantasy points in 31 minutes of work. For a guy that loves to shoot and has the ball in his hands a ton, that's sad. He'll look to bounce back tonight in a strong match-up with the Pistons. They rank 22nd against small forwards in the league and allow the 2nd most true points. Simmons is a key scorer on this offense and even more so with Vucevic out of the lineup. He's going to be needed for his normal 34+ minutes a night and 20+ points. I guess you can't lock him in for any more than 4 FP, but I don't think he has any trouble getting to 25 here as long as the game stays close. The upside for 40+ is absolutely there as the 1 or 2 option against a team without any great perimeter defenders. At an extremely ugly position, he's fairly priced and likely not going to hurt you in any format.

Trevor Ariza FD - $5500 DK - $5300
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 29.6

With SF so weak, we're looking towards some same value in Trevor Arizona. He's by all means far from flashy, but is a big part of this team and it's shown in how many minutes he gets. Sitting over 40 minutes in each of the last 6 games, it's obvious how safe Across is to at least be out there. He doesn't really struggle with production, either, with that insane volume. He's around 25 FP on most nights with the clear upside for about 40. The Celtics are an unknown against SF's with Jaylen Brown out, so we'll see. I can't imagine an injury to a strong defender will at all help. Ariza isn't exciting and doesn't have the ceiling like Simmons, but he's safe and gets you exposure to this game we love at a subpar position.

Power forward

Ben Simmons FD - $9000 DK - $8700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 43.72 DK - 43.54

If you're looking to pay up at PF, this is how you'll probably do it. Kristaps Porzingis and LaMarcus Aldridge are playing each other and either can go off, but I don't think they are in nearly the spot Ben Simmons is. To me, this seems like close to a perfect match-up for Simmons. It's a team that doesn't really have anyone to cover Simmons, but is certainly good enough to stay with the Sixers point for point. It'd be my guess that Al-Farouq Aminu starts on him, but you can't be sure with a behemoth like Simmons that is a match-up nightmare at PG. He's been around 25-30 fantasy points in 3 straight games and it'll hopefully keep the crowd away. I can promise you his ability to consistently put up 45+ fantasy points did not fall by the bayside. He's going to continue dominating night in and night out and stuffing the stat sheet like crazy. The Blazers are a flexible defense as a whole and can be taken advantage of in many different spots. Simmons is pretty expensive, but could easily pay off his tag in all formats in a close game.

Taj Gibson FD - $5500 DK - $5700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.08 DK - 27.73

The Taj train just keeps on chugging. He's getting the 34+ minutes Thibodeau loves to give his starters, but is actually seeing the ball a lot more than he really should. I guess that's just what happens when you're on the floor all game in an offense that often leaves him ignored by the defense. Gibson consistently sits around 30 FP and sees a very strong match-up against the Bucks tonight. They're league average on the season against PF's, but rank 2nd worst in the last 10 days. They have a weak interior overall and struggle with size under the rim. Thon Maker and John Henson are both lengthy and skilled big men, but struggle with muscle and any type of real footwork. Pencil in Taj for another 25 fantasy points with the upside for 35 or 40. You won't find him in any of my tournaments, but he'll be a cash game staple everywhere.

Center

Al Horford FD - $7100 DK - $7100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.07 DK - 34.15

We're going to look at 3 different centers at 3 very different price points. Starting in the mid-range, we'll look at Al Horford against the Rockets. On most nights, this wouldn't be a great match-up, but Clint Capela is out. That leaves some extremely weak big men for the Rockets and guys that Al Horford should have no problem doing damage against. Nene is about 10 years too old to be playing this much and isn't even an average defender off the bench. He can still rebound a bit, but is one of the slower guys I've seen on the first step in quite some time. Horford is the clear number 2 option on this offense behind Kyrie Irving and he's getting to 35 fantasy points on most nights. This Celtics squad is extremely consistent and you can see when you look at the production of their stars. Here we have a fast-paced match-up against a team that's missing their only good big man. The game is expected to stay close and Horford has to be a big reason why for the Celts. Sign me up.

Joel Embiid FD - $10700 DK - $9600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 52.21 DK - 53.5

If you have the extra funds laying around and like how your lineup looks elsewhere, don't hesitate to jump on Joel Embiid. He is going to cost you a pretty penny, but has a nice match-up with a Blazers squad that sports a flustered Jusuf Nurkic. The Blazers have ranked 22nd overall on the season against centers, though I don't know much that matters for such s unique player. He was immediately back to business following his injury leave and tagged the Knicks for 50 FP the last time out. The Blazers are a similar defense to the Knicks, but don't have nearly as much sIze. As long as it stays close, he will be over 30 minutes and 40 fantasy points as a minimum. The upside is limitless. He put up 97 earlier in the year, so I can't try to guess it. Center has quite a few options, but Embiid is one of the top ones in all formats.

Bismack Biyombo FD - $5500 DK - $4600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.86 DK - 23.2

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