Welcome back fantasy football fans. I don't blame you if you took the week off as the main slate falls on Christmas Eve where you will likely want to be spending time with your family playing Scrabble, Monopoly, or other popular board games but if you are like me you will have at least Redzone playing on your phone(don't tell my mom). There are also two games on Christmas Day this week so if you plan on eating a ton of Turkey and chilling on the couch, I would advise you to get in some Sunday-Monday slate action.
There are some very intriguing matchups and a lot on the line this week so let's first take a look at some of the injuries that could affect our lineup construction.
If you are looking for a more in-depth look at this week's games, be sure to check out the DFSR Game by Game Podcast where Doug and James go over all the relevant plays for cash games and tournaments.
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Quarterback - Alex Smith
Primary Target - Travis Kelce
Secondary Target - Kareem Hunt
I had originally pegged Cam Newton and the Panthers in this spot but with Devin Funchess highly questionable and Cam's ability to just take over games with his legs, I decided to look for a lower owned option to kick things off this week. Using FanShareSports analytical tools, I pegged Alex Smith as a low owned quarterback as he has just seven tags as of Friday morning. In comparison, Cam Newton has 18 tags, Philip Rivers and Blake Bortles have 17 tags, and 19 total quarterbacks have more tags than Smith. He has only topped 20 fantasy points once in the last four weeks but it was a monster game with 40.6 DK/37.6 FD points against the Jets. The matchup isn't quite as good this week vs. the Dolphins but what I like about pairing him with Travis Kelce is the fact the Dolphins have been near elite vs. wideouts which has funneled a ton of fantasy points to tight ends as they rank 28th overall vs. the position. Last week they gave up seven catches for 101 yards to the Bills Nick O'Leary and Charles Clay, didn't face Gronk in Week 14 but in Week 12 gave up five catches for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Kelce is dealing with an illness this week but is fully expected to be in the lineup on Sunday and the missed practices could help with his ownership should he remain out of practice on Friday. My second choice is running back Kareem Hunt and I fully believe all three players can have big games. With the Dolphins ability to shut down wideouts, I can see Hunt once again getting 5+ targets this week on top of his 15+ carries. He has rushed for 100 or more yards in back to back games and was also very productive through the air last week catching seven of his nine targets for an additional 51 yards and a touchdown. Hunt has also seen a big price increase and with him being in the same tier as Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Alvin Kamara, I feel he makes a terrific ownership pivot. There is enough value this where you can easily stack all three in hopes of another huge upside day as the Chiefs look to lock up the division on their home field.
Quarterback - Blake Bortles
Primary Target - Dede Westbrook
Secondary Target - Keelan Cole
If you told me at the start of the season that I would be writing up Blake Bortles in Week 16, I would have told you to check me into the psych ward. Needless to say, I am safely at my computer desk writing up Bortles who has been easily one of the top fantasy quarterbacks over the past month. You heard that right, over the past four weeks he has the sixth-most passing yards(1,063) and touchdowns(7) and has added an additional 87 yards rushing with two more touchdowns. He has thrown for 300 yards twice, exceeded 20 fantasy points three times, and owns the second-best average fantasy points with 24.4 per game. Whoa! He now sits with a season-high price on both sites but is still firmly in play as he would only need 19.5 DK/22.8 FD points to hit 3x value, a target he has hit in three of the past four weeks. Leonard Fournette is primed to return from a quad injury this week which could take away a few pass attempts in the grand scheme of things but it didn't hurt his value in weeks 12 and 13 so I am not too concerned at all. He also gets a plus matchup, despite the low Vegas Total, facing a 49ers team that ranks 31st in DVOA vs. the pass and 28th in DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. He will be without Marqise Lee once again but the third and fourth receivers on the depth chart have been balling out lately. Dede Westbrook is coming off a quiet week with just two targets but had caught 17 of his 27 targets in in weeks 12-14 for 200 yards and a touchdown. Undrafted free agent, Keelan Cole, is coming off his biggest game of the year catching seven of his nine targets for 186 yards and a touchdown and has now scored in three straight games. Both have seen a big price increase this week but are firmly in play vs. the 49ers who rank 24th in DraftKings points per game allowed to wideouts. Now it's time to sit back and cross your fingers Bortles doesn't turn back into a pumpkin at midnight before gameday.
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