Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
Welcome back daily fantasy hoops lovers to another edition of NBA Tuesday. We're back to the micro-slates with three games on the docket for this evening, and no shortage of high priced studs. So let's dive right in and see who is worth paying up for and if we can't find a little bit of value to allow us to fit them in. On to the picks!
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 33.5 DK - 33.77
Eric Bledsoe didn't want to be in Phoenix. It seems he's much more content in Milwaukee though. Since being dealt by the Suns in early November Bledsoe has really taken to his new role in the Milwaukee offense, scoring in double digits in all but one game and posting 20+ in three of his last six which isn't always easy when sharing court time with Giannis. Cleveland can be a tall order for opposing point guards, but its a slim pickin's kind of night. If Giannis is tangled up with LeBron all night Bledsoe could be called upon to lead the ball to the basket more, and for the cost is one of the safer plays at the position tonight.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 20.9 DK - 21.59
Next up we have George Hill. The Kings are in Philly tonight and the question we have to ask ourselves here is do we think Hill will continue to see 30 minutes? Over his last three games Hill has played 28, 29, and 33 averaging 17 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Hill has turned his game up over the past few weeks, and as long as he keeps dropping double digit scores we have to hope he's rewarded with continued playing time, but this is still the Kings we are talking about. I'll feel more confident in the minutes if De'Aaron Fox sits out another one, but even if Fox plays, Hill provides us with value that is going to be needed elsewhere, so we might have to take a gamble on those minutes.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 38.02 DK - 37.92
John Wall is three games back from a knee injury that kept him sidelined for just about a month, and it seems he's pretty much gotten all of the kinks out. His minutes have increased from 27 in his return to 32 against Cleveland on Sunday where he posted a double double with 15 points and ten boards. If not for that missed month I have a feeling we would be paying over $10K for Wall at this point in the season, and though he hasn't paid a full 5X at the FanDuel price, he is still a solid play. We're projecting on the lower side of his minutes here and he's coming in at 4X PPD. He'll be tasked with Rajon Rondo tonight which means only good things can happen. I prefer him much more on DK where he is coming at significant savings, but if you think he sees another 32 minutes if not maybe a little more then Wall is a fine play across the board.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 23.92 DK - 24.06
We really want to find value at the two, you'll see why in a moment, so I'm going to give you two solid lower tiered plays before giving you a guy you can pay up for if that's how you want to roll. First up in our el cheapo plays we have E'Twaun Moore of the Pelicans. Moore and the Pelicans are in Washington to take on a Wizards team that is average at best defending the position. The match up and the price alone almost make Moore a must play, though I hate using that term on slates like this. Moore got beat up by a tough Denver defense on Friday, but before that he had a steady string of games paying 5X PPD or better including a stop in Houston where he ended the night over 9X PPD in 41 minutes. That is as much an outlier as the Denver game was, and the true Moore lies in the 26.74 fantasy points he averaged in the other five of his last seven games, good for nearly 6X PPD at these prices. Again, I don't like the term "must have" on slates like this, but I plan to have a ton of exposure to Moore tonight.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.43 DK - 29.05
I'm not going to touch on this game near as much as I would like to, I think it could make for a sneaky game stack, but with word that Embiid expects to play tonight, that's going to swipe a lot of value off the table. One play that is hard to ignore though is JJ Redick. Redick is relishing his time in Philly. Though I would've preferred to see much more production out of the 50 minutes he was on the boards in Friday's triple OT loss to the Thunder, Redick's presence in the Philly back court has been undeniable this season. He's scored 19 or more points in five of his last six contests and can be counted on for about 33 minutes in regulation. His lack of peripherals leave something to be desired, but since scoring is where his bread is buttered, facing a Sacramento team allowing shooting guards to score 25.3 points per game this season is all we really need to know. Philly is favored by 8.5 points, and Sacramento's maple syrup slow pace of play may bring his game down a bit, but for the cost, I love the safety and the potential upside that Redick represents.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 37.51 DK - 38.24
If you're going to attempt to pay up at shooting guard then ignore Bradley Beal who is still priced as though John Wall is sitting courtside, and instead look to Khris Middleton. We're going to spend a lot of time on this game as you'll soon see. The Freaks wingman, Middleton is stuffing the stat sheet nicely for the Bucks, dishing the ball to Giannis or taking matters into his own hands when the freak is locked in coverage. in 8 games this month Middleton is averaging 22.9 points, 4.75 rebounds, and 4.75 assists, and a steal per game in 37 minutes. He's crushed value twice in that stretch while coming in at, or just below 5X each other time, as safe plays go, Middleton's among the safest on the slate.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 57.32 DK - 58.56
It's the clash of the titans in Milwaukee as LeBron leads the Cavaliers into town to take on the Giannis and the Bucks. We'll break down each play individually as they're our favorite two ways to pay up on this slate, though not necessarily the only way. First up the King. LeBron James has been incredibly hot lately, paying 5X or better on these prices in four of his last seven games. He's on a streak of three straight triple doubles, which ties a career high mark, he's playing ridiculous minutes even in back to back sets as he tries to lead the Cavs to catch up with the Celtics for the top record in the east. The Bucks are one of the stingiest defenses in the game at the position, but that doesn't apply to James who dropped 30 in 36 minutes coming 2 baords and an assist shy of a tripe double the last time these two teams met.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 57.92 DK - 58.46
Then we have Giannis. The Greek Freak has been no slouch this season either. Averaging 41 minutes per game over his last five contests, scoring 27 or more points per game in that stretch with three double doubles, and 13 steals. Giannis has had a bit of a harder time justifying his price compared to James, but he has dealt with some tough defenses in the past several games as well. The Cavaliers rank dead last defensively at the position and in his last meeting with Cleveland he posted 40 points in 40 minutes to go along with nine rebounds, three assists, and three blocks. Vegas has this game set at a 217 total with just a 1.5 point spread so look for both of these guys to be in it until the end and put up monster fantasy value. The only question is can you fit both, and if not how do you choose? They lead the way in PPD projections at the position with James gaining the edge on FD where he's slightly cheaper and Giannis on DK for the same reason.
If you can't fit both LeBron and Giannis, and Otto Porter is ruled out again, (and that seems likely) the system is putting Kelly Oubre Jr. above both of these guys for PPD projection in that scenario.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.51 DK - 23.4
I'm digging for value here, so we can fit both James and Giannis if need be, and the value is coming up nicely at the four with Markieff Morris of the Wizards. Morris leads the PPD projections at the position and is carrying a very attractive price tag on both sites. He and the Wizards welcome Anthony Davis and the defensively lacking Pelicans to Capital One Arena. There's no early line from Vegas for this game, though I wouldn't be surprised to see it top the MIL/CLE game with the highest total of the night, while New Orleans tendency to run the boards should speed up Washington's average pace of play. Morris tweaked his neck on Sunday against the Cavs but they X-Rayed it and he was cleared to return to the game, so he should be fine after the day of rest on Monday, but if the Wiz decide to hold him out on the side of caution, Mike Scott could become a solid source of value.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.52 DK - 24.22
I told you we were going to attack this game from all angles. John Henson continues to roll with the Milwaukee starters and can be counted on for about 25-30 minutes per night. He's not going to light up the score board, but he will do just enough to justify the price tag. He maintains a constant presence in the glass averaging 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game, and can really build the fantasy value when he mixes in a little scoring action to boot, as he did with double digit scoring in four of his last six games. If he can just stay out of foul trouble, Henson isn't shy about making his presence known up front and should be able to dominate against a Cavs team allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing PF's in their last five games.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 51.59 DK - 51.86
Let me start out by saying that we plan to prioritize Giannis and James, but if things just don't shake out and the value isn't there to fit a pair of $12K guys into our lineups, Anthony Davis is a place to pivot, particularly on DraftKings. Let's just leave the injury nonsense at the door and look at the numbers. The glass brow is now four games returned from a groin injury and has eclipsed 40 minutes in two of those games while posting two straight double doubles and knocking down 14 blocks. He's averaged 56.16 fantasy points in his last three games and will face a Wizards team allowing 20.1 points and 12.2 boards to the position per game. This is just a contingency play if we need a pivot in cash, while also an intriguing tournament option on DK, but Davis is certainly in consideration.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.41 DK - 28.32
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.87 DK - 21.35
These two shared the court as starters together for the first time on Sunday with Zach Randolph ruled out for rest purposes, and complimented each other nicely. Cauley-Stein ended the night with a 12/6/4/2 line in 33 minutes, while Koufos went 6/6/4/1 with two steals in 25 minutes, paying 5X and 6.3X PPD respectively. I expect Randolph will be back in play with the starting squad tonight, but if these two find themselves starting together again then either can be considered as a solid value play at the five, a position where on a normal night we might look to pay up but tonight value is key. Embiid is risky with his recent back issues, Boogie is just too expensive to afford against a solid Washington defense, and Love has paid value just once in his last six games. If Z-Bo starts, sending Koufos back to the bench then of course, only WCS is in play, but if both start then consider WCS in cash with Koufos as a fantastic tournament play.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.57 DK - 24.53
The price on Marcin Gortat just continues to drop. He is now at season lows across the industry. He's been pretty terrible lately, but once again, we don't want to pay up at the position and for the price, we don't have to ask a whole lot of him in cash games. He still sees 25-30 minutes per game and if he can just piece together nine points, eight boards, and mix in an assist, block, steal, or two, then we'll have all we need to get us to the 5X PPD threshold. Center's just not a pretty position tonight. I prefer the Kings, but if Koufos is back on the bench and you can't afford WCS, then Gortat is really the only other place to go.
Good luck out there tonight!!
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