Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings -12/17/17

Happy Sunday, dearest of friends! It's absurdly cold here in the Northeast, football season continues on, and Roy Moore almost got elected to national office - nevertheless, I persist. Let's do a little hoopage, shall we?

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Point guard

Spencer Dinwiddie FD - $7500 DK - $6800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 34.93 DK - 34.86
We're looking at multiple short slates where it's tough to field a lineup of actual starters, so this might be the rare day where it's correct to the play the all day slate. I am going to write this article as though that's what you planned, because let's be honest, that's a lot easier for me. What does this have to do with Spencer Dinwiddie, you ask? Absolutely nothing. Moving on. Dinwiddie has actually been a pretty consistent offensive producer on a points per minute basis this season, highlighted best by his 2 recent 42+ fantasy point performances in the last week. If it weren't for the unhappy circumstance of playing on the Nets, he'd probably be getting some notice as a surprising breakout player this season. The risk with any Net on any given night is of course blowout risk, but Vegas sees them as just 3 point dogs going up against Indiana here. On a day where there is just no value anywhere at the position, Dinwiddie looks like a solid high floor and high ceiling option.

Darren Collison FD - $5800 DK - $5800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.34 DK - 26.7
I'll break down the other possibilities and their issues in a second, but Collison shows up on this list in a sort of "in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king" fashion. He's an underwhelming performer on these prices, and seems to be something of a minutes risk in tough match-ups. So why include him here? This ain't one of those tough match-ups. The Nets are playing the league's 2nd fastest PACE with a bottom 10 defensive efficiency, and that should be enough for Collison to at least score in the high 20s fantasy points. Our system doesn't particularly love him here, which is really saying something about how bad he is generally, but let's look at the other options.

John Wall - been playing less than 30 minutes. No.
Cleveland - No point guard need apply. Calderon has flashed some upside recently, but is also a huge minutes risk and not that cheap anymore.
Sacramento - They've been shipping PG minutes all over the place between Fox, Hill, and Mason, and it's tough to guess where it's all going to land. If Fox sits Hill becomes marginally interesting.
Lowry is probably too expensive for his current production, and Sacramento plays slow. Still a reasonable option I guess.
Elfrid Payton - LOL at these prices.
Reggie Jackson - there's upside, but the minutes are nuts.

Crazy day at PG.

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo FD - $9700 DK - $9300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 47.58 DK - 47.83
The clear big money pay-up option today as best I can tell. It's a stretch for Oladipo to pay these prices consistently, but he'll get one of the best match-ups in the league in Brooklyn, and he's a reasonable way to make use of some cheaper guys elsewhere given his usage lately. Nothing to get overly excited about, but with Drummond and Lebron's prices at all time highs, Wall's minutes restricted, and the rest of the losers playing today, it's going to be tough to find good ways to pay up. I'd guess Victor is very highly owned on both sites here.

Okay this position is a quagmire as well. Let's just go team by team again.

Sacramento: Bogdan Bogdanovic is a good value at $4,500 if you trust the minutes, but are we really in the market for a backup on the Kings?
Toronto: DeRozan is slightly overpriced, particularly in a slow match-up with blowout risk. He's paid this price exactly twice since going off against Washington in November - and both of those times were against the Suns.
Orlando: No qualifying players.
Detroit: Only Luke Kenard qualifies if Avery Bradley sits again, and while he paid his prices he also played 18 minutes. Is that where you want to be?
Brooklyn: Caris Levert is $6,000??? And Nik Stauskas' presence significantly gums up the works here. Stauskas is wildly cheap if you trust the minutes, but can you trust the minutes given how destroyed BKN got last game? Ugh.
Washington: Beal is a little too expensive given Wall's return.
Cleveland: None of Wade, JR, or Korver are playing enough minutes to trust them on their current prices.

Have fun!

Small forward

Mario Hezonja FD - $4000 DK - $4400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 24.31 DK - 24.91
Jonathon Simmons FD - $6600 DK - $6600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.96 DK - 34.27
Finally, some good plays! With the pile of wing injuries and Gordon already ruled out, both Hezonja and Simmons become fantastic plays even in a bad match-up here. With this level of injuries Hezonja played 34 minutes and piled up 42 fantasy points against the Clippers, and his price has plummeted back down to $4,000. Simmons has just been super reliable at this price point to begin with, and freeing up Gordon's usage should mean a significant bump for him as well. Both are totally viable in any format.

Kelly Oubre Jr. FD - $4900 DK - $4900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.26 DK - 27.09
It's almost a crime how much value has been freed up at this position - I just wish we could play all three of these guys. With Porter already ruled out, Oubre becomes something of a must. He played 34 minutes and paid better than 5x when Porter went down against the Clippers, and we've seen him touch high 30s minutes out of a starter's spot in the past. It's not a perfect match-up to be sure, but what we have here is just a classic price/opportunity mismatch, and you can expect near universal ownership in cash games assuming nothing changes.

Power forward

Thaddeus Young FD - $6600 DK - $6300
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.64 DK - 32.71
A revenge game (TM) for Thad? I doubt Young much cares about his former team, but he and fantasy owners have to be licking their chops here. The only fly in the ointment is that he's currently listed as questionable thanks to some knee concern, but given that he's been running out there for 38+ minutes per game color me a little less than worried unless we hear more concrete news. But the numbers on Young are all positive - He's been averaging better than 5x points per dollar on these prices over the last 30 days, and he'll get his best match-up over that stretch against the Nets and their barely passable big men. Another guy that could touch 99% ownership.

Another God awful position. Here you go.

Cleveland-Washington: No one who qualifies at this position is projected to play more than 25 minutes in our system. I guess you can take a stab if someone sits?
Toronto-Sacramento: Zbo is way too expensive for a guy coming off of 24 minutes. Ibaka has been good on these prices in basically every game in the month of December, and was totally passable against Sac-town in their last meeting in spite of playing just 28 minutes in a blowout. That's the risk here again, of course.
Brooklyn: RHJ has upside, but huge risk.
Orlando-Detroit: With Gordon sidelined Orlando doesn't field a player who qualifies here, and Harris is still priced like the iron-man who was playing high 30s minutes. No.

Center

I can't deign to post any player at this position's picture, but I'll do my best to break it down.

Sacramento-Toronto: Both Willie Cauley-Stein and Jonas have the same issue - they are solid points per minute guys whose minutes are a total unknown. I'd guess Jonas winds up being chalk for the all day slate on account of terrible options elsewhere, but don't kid yourself into thinking this is anything like a safe play.
Orlando-Detroit: All time high prices for both players, and I'm ruling Vuc out on account of the slow and bad match-up. Drummond is pretty interesting, but $10,000!? I guess you could argue he is a better pay-off than Oladipo just given the more consistent track record, but man, these aren't the prices I'm hoping to pay for him.
Cleveland-Washington: Kevin Love looks like what passes for a good play on this slate, but only if you think his real rotation is the 34 minutes we saw last game. If it's the high 20s low 30s he's flashed at times, his owners will be in trouble. Gortat's minutes have ticked upward the last couple games, and he's probably a solid option against the basically centerless Cavs even at 28 minutes.
Brooklyn-Indiana: Jahlil Okafor has gummed up the works for the Nets, and he's not even punt prices. Myles Turner has very interesting upside in a great match-up, but I'm not very excited about paying the extreme premium here.

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