James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
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Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 54.43 DK - 57.79
About 70 or so times a year we open the article the exact same way, with the point guard of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, and today is no different. Occasionally the matchup is too tough to justify the price being too high, but aside from that, Russ is a staple in the opening profile here as an electric player who dominates the game, and puts up 50 fantasy points on the regular. tonight he travels to the Big Apple to take on a Knicks team that may be without Kristaps Porzingis, and has no one else that could even hope to contain him. Russ isn't quite at a season high in price, though it's close. On opening night the Thunder hosted the Knicks in OKC and Westbrook posted his first trip/doub, of many, of the season with a 21/10/16 line in 33 minutes. For the cost of admission, I don't think Russ is a must have tournament play, but he's got a solid cash game floor. Note: I wrote Westbrook up in the first quarter of the game against Philly. If the 52 minutes he played in triple OT concerns you, I get it, but Russ didn't look the least bit winded at the end of that game, and I don't think it impacts his minutes tonight.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 35.16 DK - 35.36
The recurring theme of the night will be the Minnesota Timberwolves, who host the Phoenix Suns tonight. The Suns are terrible on the defensive and and play the third fastest game in basketball, which means opportunity aplenty for Jeff Teague and company. Teague is now seven games returned from an achilles injury that kept him on the bench for a stretch, and it looks as though everything is all good now. Thibs ran him out there for 34 minutes in his first game back and hasn't let up any on the workload since in true Thibs fashion. The 30 he saw against the Kings on Thursday was the fewest minutes he's seen in that stretch and that was a 23 point blowout. This one has an 11.5 point opening spread, and a 218.5 total projection that is quite pleasing to the eye. Teague is guaranteed 30 minutes, and could push 40 if Phoenix finds a way to keep things interesting. Point guards are scoring an average of 49 points against the Suns this season, while that may be a bit much to ask of Teague, a ceiling of 40 is within reason, while a floor of 30 makes him an excellent play in all formats.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.53 DK - 27.6
After those two, point guard gets a little iffy. In the higher price point, Lillard and Walker go head to head while Kyrie is in a tough matchup with the Grizz. Of the cheaper guys, I was all set to write up Andrew Harrison when it was announced Tyreke was going to play Friday night, so against my better judgement lets look at Ricky Rubio. There are a few factors playing in our favor here, first and foremost we get Ricky at the lowest price of the season on both DraftKings, and FanDuel. The minutes have been on the rise as well. He saw 34, 30 and 31 before exiting after just 26 against the Bulls on Wednesday. The most promising thing about Rubio is the scoring has been improving. After being completely shut down against the Pelicans on the first of the month, Rubio has scored 4, 7, 11, 10, and topped off at 14 against Chicago. It's not a lot, but it's enough at this price point. Utah is in Cleveland tonight, so it won't be easy, but as a cheap way out of point guard, Rubio is worth a look.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 54.76 DK - 57.23
We're barely two months into the season, but it's safe to say the early front runner in the MVP race is James Harden. The Rockets have the best record in the NBA and that is due in quite a large part to the beard. Tonight, we get Harden on the lower side of the $11K range, and when that happens we need to stop and take notice. Particularly against a Bucks team that are a bottom ten defense at defending against the two. Harden has been lighting the stat sheet on fire lately, scoring 48 real points against the Blazers last Saturday, and then dishing out 17 assists against the Pelicans on Monday, all the while running the boards for 30+ minutes, and upwards of 40 per game. This isn't the cheapest we'll see Harden this season, but it's close, and in just the past seven games he's paid value at this price five times, it's an excellent time to buy in on the Beard.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.21 DK - 30.37
Back to Minnesota we go with Andrew Wiggins in a much needed matchup with the Suns. Wiggins is a bit of a one trick pony, he needs his shot to fall to hit fantasy value as he doesn't contribute a whole lot in the peripherals. Tonight he plays a suns team that is allowing not only 48.3 fantasy points per game this season but are also allowing 28.8 real points per game to the position, and most of that was when they had a healthy Devin Booker at the two. For Wiggins, things have been looking up as he has scored 20 and 22 in his last two games against The Sixers and Kings respectively. In my personal opinion Wiggins is just a tad overpriced for my liking and I don't see much upside, so I'll steer clear in tournaments, but he should easily hit his cash game floor in this pace up contest against one of the worst defenses in the game.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.9 DK - 30.06
If you need to save some salary, then head to Miami where the Heat are hosting the Clippers, and check out Dion Waiters. It's been an up and down season for Waiters, with the emergence of Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington, but Waiters still runs with the starting squad and sees generally 24-34 minutes per game. He's also at a drastically reduced price across the industry. The Clippers are the ninth worst defense in the game at the position and third worst over their last ten games allowing 55.3 FP per game to opposing SG's. Kind of like Rubio above, this play doesn't fill me with the greatest of confidence, but if you need to save some salary, Waiters won't break your bank.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 24.85 DK - 25.62
If you want to pay up at small forward, I'd set my limit at Jimmy Butler, though you can only play so many Timberwolves in a single lineup, LeBron is in a pace down contest with minor blowout concern, plus Westbrook and Harden are both in much better spots than the King and Giannis. So let's look at some cheaper alternatives at the three. First up we have Joe Ingles. Ingles let's you get exposure to the Jazz/Cavs game without chucking up 20% of your salary. He's priced to a point where the slow pace of the game, or risk of it getting out of hand aren't of much concern. Ingles has put together double digit scoring performances in seven of his last eight games, and routinely dishes out anywhere from four to seven assists in a contest while seeing 30+ minutes of court time. Rudy Gobert, who recently returned from an injury, left early in the first quarter of last night's game with a knee injury, so the Jazz may lean on Ingles even more now making this play that much better.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 27.66 DK - 28.1
Sticking in that middle tier we find Jaylen Brown of the Celtics. Boston is in Memphis tonight to face the Grizzlies. Despite a few duds here and there, Brown has been fairly consistent this season for the Celtics, averaging 15 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in just under 32 minutes per. He's scored in double digits in four of his last five games including a 26 point showing earlier this week against the Nuggets. Memphis presents a rather challenging matchup for the second year forward, but they are allowing 19.6 points and 6.2 boards to opposing threes, which is all we need to hit value. Jaylen should have little trouble paying value in cash games, and on any given night has the ability to go off in tournaments.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 25.58 DK - 25.57
We round things out at the three with Trevor Ariza. Ariza proved any concerns about his foot were unfounded. An apparent bone contusion in his foot had his status up in the air heading into the game against Charlotte on Wednesday night, but he took the court and ran the boards for 34 minutes with 13 points and six rebounds which is par for the course for Ariza. On the season he's averaging 34.2 minutes per game for the surging Rockets while averaging 11.6 points and 4.5 boards per contest. The Bucks present a daunting matchup but the price, particularly on DraftKings is at a point where we don't need to show much concern there. I prefer the first two guys on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, Ariza moves ahead of Brown, and it's awfully close with Ingles.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.81 DK - 35.94
Justise Winslow and Hassan Whiteside both remain out. This means James Johnson remains in a solid spot once again. The sites are quick to correct on his pricing, as he's up $700 on FD and $400 on DK since Winslow went down against Portland on Wednesday, but there is still room to grow here. Last night he paid nearly 6X on tonight's prices against a very poor Hornets defense, and tonight he gets the opportunity to match against a Clippers team just as bad (the two teams are ranked third and second worst at the position respectively). Whiteside will most likely remain out tonight while Winslow is looking at least at another week, so now is the time to get in on Johnson while the opportunity is abundant.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 31.56 DK - 32.56
Taj Gibson seems to be lost in some DFS version of the movie Groundhog Day where every day we wake up and his price is the same. Sure there's some fluctuation here and there, but generally Gibson has been a mid $5K play all season, and backs it up with his on court performance. Only recently has the price finally started to climb, yet he's paid value in five of his last six games including a double double in L.A. against the Clippers where he paid 7.5X PPD. Today he draws the Suns who are simply terrible at the four allowing not only 50.4 fantasy points per game on the season, but over the past ten games they've tacked on additional 10.9 to that. Power Forwards are dropping 24.8 points and 12.7 rebounds on Phoenix and Gibson could be looking at a big night and another 7X performance. I'll be sure to have exposure to Taj everywhere.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 22.56 DK - 24.18
Ryan Anderson saw his minutes clipped twice in the past week playing 17 against the Blazers and Pelicans, before returning to full run against the Hornets on Wednesday, where he finished with a 5/5/2line with a steal. The Rockets are stretching kind of thin in the front court with Troy Williams and Luc Mbah a Moute both inactive, so Anderson should continue to see the added run time, now we just need him to get his shot dropping, and get his scoring back in the double digits, which is where it was last night when he double doubled with 12 points and 10 rebounds against San Antonio. He's been much better from down town, so he as long as he hangs out in three point land, and shoots from deep he should be able to pay value easily at these prices, particularly on DK where not only is he $100 cheaper, but the three is worth more. There's some risk here, but the potential reward is significant.
If Rudy Gobert is out, and I think he will be, then consider Derrick Favors who was fantastic filling in at the five when Gobert's knee kept him sidelined through most of November, as long as he's not held out as well.
If Narratives suit your fancy, consider Carmelo Anthony returning MSG, but he's coming in pretty low in PPD projections at the position.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 37.12 DK - 37.64
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 34.08 DK - 34.14
There's a lot of value to be had in Minnesota, so paying up for Karl-Anthony Towns isn't necessarily the way to go, though I wouldn't fault you for going that route if you have the funds to do so. If you found yourself splurging in the backcourt however like I plan to, then let's look a little cheaper at our big men, with both sides of the Celtics game in Memphis. Both Marc Gasol and Al Horford project for similar points per dollar, so it basically comes down to just how much you have to spend? You can get Horford for about $1000 cheaper than Gasol, and he was dominant in last night's contest with the Jazz, though Utah lost Rudy Gobert a minute into the game, so that certainly made his job easier. He ended the night with a 21/6/7 line in 34 minutes after resting on Wednesday and certainly looked rejuvenated. Gasol meanwhile was one of our top plays at center last night and underwhelmed going 13/6/5 with two blocks and a steal. Gasol has only one single digit scoring game this season, way back in October, and has posted eight double doubles, though his lack of peripherals in the short term has netted him just two so far in December. For Safety and value I'd go Horford, but if you have the added funds and want some separation in a tournament then consider Gasol.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.84 DK - 23.8
If you can't swing the salary needed for either of those guys, or just want to go against the grain, look to Tyson Chandler. Chandler missed Wednesday's game for personal matters after starting two straight for the Suns who have quite the backlog at the center position. He saw 26 and 29 minutes in those games, and posted 10 rebounds to go along with seven points and two blocks against the Kings. If he is back with the team tonight and in the starting line, look for him to have a solid night against the Timberwolves, and particularly KAT who doesn't really have any interest in playing defense. Minnesota is sitting just outside the ten worst teams at defending the five. The system has Chandler pegged as the top PPD play at the position. If he isn't back with the team yet, and Greg Monroe draws the start then you can consider him as well, though he's a little higher in price.
Good luck out there tonight!!
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View Comments
Dion Waiters is probably in play tonight, but won’t be guarded by McCollum as the Blazers will be in Charlotte tonight and Miami will be hosting the Clips and we all know Sweet Lou doesn’t play defense.
Brain fart on my end. Corrected, thanks for bringing it to my attention, certainly does make Waiters somewhat more appealing, not sure where my head was last night. I read these over twice before publishing and still sometimes something just slips right past.