Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Nov. 10, 2016, in Denver. The Warriors won 125-101. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 41.36 DK - 42.42
After a very interesting 4-game Thursday slate, we have 8 games on our hands tonight. There are a lot of slower games on the slate and it'll keep scored down a bit, but there are a few spots you can game stack. The first guy we're looking at is not in one of those games. The Celtics and Spurs are both on the slow side, but the Spurs struggle against point guards and Kyrie has been insanely consistent. He's the clear number 1 option on this offense and is putting up at least 30 fantasy points every single night. He isn't hitting the 60-70 ceiling I expected, but has got to around 50 once or twice a week. His price has dipped below $8k and cheaper than Lowry, Elfrid, and Kemba, who are all decent options on this slate. Neither stands far above the rest and it should result in all of them under 25% owned. The Spurs are running a 3-man roto at PG with Parker, Mills, and Murray. Neither are very good defenders are known as such because of the system they play in. Kyrie will be able to dominate each of them 1-on-1 and will eventually draw Danny Green. The Spurs will put that off as long as possible and Kyrie should have no problem getting his in a game that is expected to remain very close. He doesn't have as much upside as the guy we'll touch on next, but is as safe as anyone at this position.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.49 DK - 40.66
If you're fine with paying up a little bit at PG, Kemba Walker is in a great spot. We know how much he loves to play at home and they're currently on a homestand as we speak. He put up 44 and 54 fantasy points over the last 2 games and now gets the best match-up of the 3 in the Chicago Bulls. On the season, they rank 4th worst against point guards with 48 FPPG allowed. His price has been inflated on both sites, but that might just keep his ownership down and he's not all that more expensive than the other 4 high-end PG's. Kris Dunn and Jerian Grant are both atrocious defenders that are backed up by Robin Lopez, so it looks like they'll be struggling against PG's for the entire season. Kemba is a guy that runs hot and cold and while I'm still willing to play him coming off of a bad game, this is optimal. Staying at home, with rest, against a bad team. It'll stay close and Kemba has another shot of putting 40+ with relative ease. Point guard is kind of tough tonight, but there are options that will get it done and you'll probably need to get them right if you want any chance of cashing in a tournament.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 25.85 DK - 26.83
Staying on the theme of tournaments, let's look at Reggie Jackson. He's been over 30 minutes in 3 straight games for the first time all season. If he continues like this, you can guarantee a $6k-$7k price tag before the clock strikes January. R-Jax is an extremely good fantasy point guard that can put up big numbers in any game. There is a lot of risk here, however, as the Warriors can blow these guys out of the water. The Pistons have been good, but all it takes is a 4 or 5 minute stretch in the 1st quarter that quickly puts the game out of reach. The Pistons don't have much firepower on offense, so need to rely on defense here and try to beat the Warriors to 110. With Curry, Quinn Cook drew the start last game and played 22 minutes. He's a bad defender by all means, but Livingston is petty good behind him. Jackson should have fantasy success on both and has a ton of upside if this game stays close. I think it's fair to assume 28 minutes with the upside for 35. I will personally have some exposure in cash games because of the depressed $ tag, but will concede that he's a far better play in tournaments.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.23 DK - 36.83
Anthony Davis is currently questionable to play, so we'll certainly need to pay attention to this situation overall. Holiday is still a fine option if Anthony Davis plays, but is a much better one if he doesn't. Over the last 3 games AD has missed, Holiday has put up FP totals of 40, 47, and 33. He's been the clear number 2 option behind DeMarcus Cousins and is seeing big minutes. He now gets a match-up against a Kings squad that doesn't play much defense. They do play slow, so they're fine on paper, but it'll be Bogdanovic and Hield on him for most of the night. Neither are very good defenders and rely a lot on the interior presence of WCS, who has already been ruled out. Both of these teams are dealing with injuries and have some spots you can take advantage of. This game should remain close and be relatively high-scoring. Holiday is extremely safe in all formats if Anthony Davis is confirmed out.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 35.72 DK - 37.19
With Curry out last game, Klay Thompson disappointed plenty. The game ended up being a low slower than Vegas expected and finished with just 189 points (215 O/U). The Warriors are still going to get a bump on offense with Curry out and we can't jump off the train after just 1 game. This match-up with the Pistons isn't the best, but it's fine. They rank 14th against shooting guards and 22nd in terms of 3-point %. Avery Bradley is a great physical defender but can give up points and we saw Thompson do damage against him in Boston plenty. With Curry off the table, he'll continue seeing 5-6 extra shots and should be at least $1k more expensive come the weekend. He's not a must play tonight against a decent Pistons team, but it should stay close and he's a guy I have a lot of. The minutes and shots are locked in at a solid price.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 37.78 DK - 38.3
Shooting guard is a shot that doesn't have much value. Assuming now injury news breaks, it's a spot you'll probably want to pay up at in cash games. In tournaments, go ahead and take a shot with Buddy Hield or E'Twaun Moore. I just can't trust them in cash with much safer options elsewhere. Instead, let's look at another mid/expensive option in Tyreke Evans. Evans was mostly forgotten about at this point in his career, but is having a very legitimate return to riches. He's dominating the offense night in and night out for this Grizzlies team without Mike Conley. He's stuffing the stat sheet in every way possible and gets a solid match-up against the Raptors. DDR is a good defender, but doesn't have much help behind him and the Raptors give up a lot of peripherals. The game will remain close and the 30+ minutes will come. Evans is getting up there in price, but is in a spot you can lock him in for 30 FP with a ceiling of 50.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 55.27 DK - 55.82
There isn't much working against Kevin Durant here. With Stephen Curry out, we're going to see his price jump up and should be taking advantage before it does. He put up 28 shots against the Hornets and finished with 67 fantasy points in 35 minutes. He's the clear number 1 option on the offense and has the ball in his hands in every important possession. The Pistons rank 7th worst against SF's and it has a lot to do with the underwhelming performance of Stanley Johnson along with the lack of any defender in the 2nd unit. We know KD is match-up proof, but it's still nice to get confirmation. He will likely be highly owned and I'm perfectly fine with it. There are 2 key guys to pay up for on this slate and I firmly believe both are worth it. Durant is a lock for 50 with the upside for who knows how much. If you're contemplating the switch to a lower owned LeBron, keep it to tournaments and understand you're on the wrong side of things. You don't have a +EV shot, but this is a variable sport and nobody would at all be surprised if LBJ is the leading scorer on the slate.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.82 DK - 30.17
While small forward isn't great, at least we have a couple guys that are in concrete cash game spots. Jonathon Simmons has been a fantastic scorer and extremely consistent over the last month and a half. He's getting run like crazy and is in there down the stretch touching the ball almost every possession. He's still fairly priced on both sites and can be played in all formats. The Denver Nuggets are an atrocious team defense and they'll remain without the only rim protector they have in Nikola Jokic. Plumlee and Faried are very underwhelming big men that just don't do much on defense. Simmons will have no problem scoring in this game that should stay close and will be high-scoring. Vegas currently has this game at a 219 total with DEN -2. This is one of the few games you can stack and Simmons is a fantastic 1-off play on his own.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.49 DK - 31.12
Uh-oh, Z-Bo is hot! At the prime age of 36 years old, we know this won't last long, but WCS will remain out here and he's locked into 30 fantasy points. Over the last 3 games, he's hit 48 FP twice and 32 the other. With Anthony Davis expected to miss for the Pelicans, it'll be a combo of Boogie Cousins and Dante Cunningham. Cousins is a big presence, but Z-Bo is more than able to score on him with post moves and from the perimeter. His price is still fair on both sites and will only need to get you 30-33 in cash games to come through. Assuming this game is high-scoring and relatively close, this is where the ball will be going down the stretch. He doesn't have the same bounce in his step he had 5 years ago, but is also a much smarter player and not so reliant on scoring and rebounding only. On DraftKings, I'm not sure how you can stay away in cash games at under $6k.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 39.96 DK - 39.53
If you want to pay up at power forward, it's between Aaron Gordon or LaMarcus Aldridge. They are both worthy of consideration and I couldn't blame you for going Gordon. We'll look at LMA, instead, who's facing off with the Celtics in a game that's expected to be close. While the total is sitting at a low 197, the spread is just -2 and that's a big deal for a guy like LMA who relies on staying in the game for 30+ minutes. The Celtics struggle a ton against skilled big men and it has a lot to do with their lack of size. Tatum and Horford are athletic, but Aldridge is one of the more skilled post men in the game and neither are ready for that. Aldridge is fairly priced on both sites and I'm fine with him in all formats. He's certainly not a must because his upside is less than 60, but he is a very safe cash game option on a slate without many of them. I still prefer Z-Bo.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 20.94 DK - 21
With both Frank Kaminsky and Cody Zeller out, Marvin Williams can be locked in for an excess of 30 minutes. He's extremely cheap on both sites and won't have to do much at all to reach value. The Bulls rank 9th worst against PF's and it has a lot do with the speed of Lauri Markkanen. Marvin is a guy that does stay active when on the floor, so you don't have to worry about him standing in the corner for 32 minutes. Kemba loves to play with him and uses him a ton off of the screen. Pairing both of them is something I will do a lot of in cash games. Williams is a way to get concrete value on a slate that doesn't have much of it. Not yet at least. Plug Marvin in there if you need to pay down somewhere and move on. He won't be the guy that kills you.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 58.65 DK - 61.45
Cousins is just an obvious choice if Anthony Davis is out again. If he's not, you can play him anyway. He will play the Kings again tonight in a game that should have him emotionally charged to the max. With somewhat mature 2027 Boogie, we love emotional. He put up a plain stupid 40/20 last game and finished with 78 fantasy points. It's ambitious to ask, but always on the table with Cousins. The Kings will be without Willie Cayley-Stein and I expect them to seriously struggle to stop Cousins in any aspect. Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos will get the minutes at center and that will just be a bloodbath. The game is expected to stay close and high-scoring, making Cousins close to a perfect play. If AD is out, I don't know how I'll stay away anywhere.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 39.93 DK - 43.25
We've managed to ignore this game up to this point, but you can play a lot of these guys. There are just a few games that draw a little more appeal. Here we are at center with Kevin Love. He will be tough to play because of DeMarcus Cousins and the spot he's in, but he's in play if you need to pay down. K-Love has been extremely consistent this season and is a stone cold lock for 35 fantasy points. He hits the 45-55 FP upside quite often and this is a fantastic match-up. Myes Turner will give K-Love a run for his money on offense, but has no interest in staying with Love on the perimeter or under the rim. If you need to save some funds, Love is a perfectly fine option in all formats. With that being said, I think I'll be stuffing Cousins in as much as I possibly can. Good luck tonight and comment below if you have any questions!
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View Comments
Klay Thompson sees almost no increase in usage when Curry is out. At 7,400 Ill be passing except maybe some tournament entries.