Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 53.98 DK - 57.42
We'll kick it right into high gear with the most expensive option on the slate in Russell Westbrook. With just 4 games on tonight's slate, you're going to have to be smart about how you pay up and how you get value. Russell Westbrook is going to cost you a pretty penny, but might be a guy you end up needing in cash games. Even at the inflated price, he has upside. He's been over 60 fantasy points in 5 of the last 8 games and he's starting to look a lot more like '16 Russ. It likely has something to do with the Thunder struggling and him looking to shoulder more of the load. He should have a pretty easy time tonight facing off with Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead. They rank 4th worst in the league against PG's and it's because of the 104 PACE. Sitting 3rd in the league behind just the Suns and Lakers, the Nets love to run with a 104 PACE. If you ignore the Lakers and Suns, it's the fastest number since PACE has been recorded. Russell Westbrook is going to slice and dice through this defense all night and will have nothing to worry about once he gets to the rim. This defense is pitiful and Westbrook will crush when in there. For me, this is one of 3-4 guys that I'll make sure I have 100% of.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.82 DK - 31.35
No matter what your opinion is on Lonzo or his dad, you have to try to take an objective stand as best as you can. Personally, I don't care about any of it so I've hopefully been able to do that. There's no doubt that he's been disappointing with his shot, but everything else has been nice. He's stuffing the stat sheet on a nightly basis and it's obvious if you watch the games that his trust with teammates is slowly building. The Lakers get a great matchup tonight with a team that will match their sleeping in Philadelphia. You won't find a team that plays faster than L.A., but there's a reason this game is sitting at a 221 O/U. Lonzo will get his 30 minutes and should have no issue getting to 25-30 as a floor. He will have a ton of peripherals up for grabs and could be a game he pushes for a triple-double. Let's remember that Lonzo Ball was one of the best shooters in a long time at UCLA, so this is a guy that's well versed in scoring. It hasn't hit him on the NBA level yet, but there's no saying when he feels it and gets to just 20 real-life points, which would push him towards smashing value. Lonzo isn't the easiest roster in the world, but this match-up is great and you don't have a ton of alternatives at the position.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 20.44 DK - 20.6
If you're looking to pay down at PG, there's a very intriguing option in Tyler Ulis. We can go back and forth all day on whether it will be Ulis or James, but we know as much as the next guy. That "next guy" likely including the entire clueless Suns coaching staff. With that being said, go ahead and throw last game out. It was the Suns' last chance to get a look at Mike James before being forced to decide to either sign or release him. Ulis will grab the start here and should be in for another 30+ minutes. With John Wall still out, it'll be the weak Tim Frazier and Tomas Satoransky on Ulis. Neither are anywhere close to the defender John Wall is and we're seeing the results. With Devin Booker out, we're going to touch on quite a few Suns. He's the clear catalyst of this offense and leaves a gaping hole in the heart of the squad. With 20+ shots on the table and a lot of ball-handling, Ulis should see a sizable boost. He's a guy I like more than the field and will use for value a lot on this slate.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.71 DK - 41.92
Brad Beal was finally Brad Beal last game. I fortunately had 100% exposure but was about 30 seconds away from turning that into 80% McCollum and 20% elsewhere. Thank the lord that didn't happen. Beal ended up with 51 real-life points and 56 fantasy points. With John Wall out, this is closer to what we expected. 50 is obviously stretching it. But I'd expect him to average 27-32 without Wall. He now gets a match-up with a Suns team that has nobody to cover him. With Devin Booker out and T.J. Warren having more than enough on his plate, it'll be Daniels and Jackson who gets most time here. Warren will likely slide over down the stretch. Assuming the Suns are able to keep this one close, Beal could be in for another huge night. The Suns play as fast as anyone in the league and are now in even more of shambles.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 7.31 DK - 8.1
Let's get back to some Phoenix value in the wake of Devin Booker. Booker is going to be out 2-3 weeks (amazing and hard to believe after watching the injury) and it'll be a bunch of guys that have to take control. T.J. Warren is the biggest, but Troy Daniels should see the most minutes. They've shown a willingness to play him 30 minutes in the past and I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up around that number. If you don't know who Troy Daniels is, look him up on YouTube. He's one of the best 3-point shooters this league has to offer, but that's about it. Against a Wizards squad that doesn't mind giving up open shots, I like Daniels if given the time. He's insanely cheap and only needs a few shots to hit value. Daniels will likely see the Wizards weakest defender, so I don't think it's fair to assume Beal sticks on him, thoughts possible and still not worrisome. With Devin Booker out, Troy Daniels is a guy that should be $4500-$5k. He's not going to obliterate and get 40, but 18-28 fantasy points should be very much in the works.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.35 DK - 34.3
It was down to Donovan Mitchell and KCP for the final spot at SG. KCP is a fine savings option that should grab you 20-25 fantasy points rather easily. Mitchell is a stud that's going to see 34+ minutes on James Harden and Eric Gordon. Two guys that are very happy the defensive presence of Chris Paul is back. Mitchell may just be a PG, but this is by no means a fluke. Donnie Mitchell was fantastic at Louisville and has been doing this in the NCAA for a few years. Rick Pitino just has an utterly bad offense, but that's another discussion. Mitchell is going to continue putting up points and while the crazy bursts will slow, consistently will remain. His price is just about right and I'm willing to play him in all formats, but do prefer Beal and Daniel just slightly. Mitchell will have some extra ownership on him as well as there are some who just chase the points and will end up here. This game between the Jazz and Rockets is one we'll mostly ignore, but so will everyone else (for good reason). In tournaments, it's worth taking a shot. Mitchell as a 1-off can be used in any format without hesitation.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 35.98 DK - 35.29
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 18.99 DK - 18.84
The case for T.J. Warren here is a quick and easy one. Devin Booker is out. I can stop now. Warren will see a huge usage bump and at least 5 extra shots. I wouldn't be surprised if he got over the 20 attempt mark. He may also see an extra 4 or 5 minutes on the floor. Otto Porter is a great defender, but the game is going to pretty fast and I think the Suns stay with them. Warren is extremely safe with a ton of upside. I can say the same for Josh Jackson. Over the last 4 games, he's been at 27, 23, 14, and 31 minutes. Not that Booker is out, we have to assume he gets to at least the 30 mark. If not 32-34. Jackson is young, but he's stuffed the stat sheet with 0.97 FP/min, which is decent. Both of these guys are in play at very different price points.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 41.6 DK - 41.85
It's very easy to like these Thunder studs against the Brooklyn Nets. With just 4 games and so few options, they should be highly owned. I'm not sure that's the case here, however, as we do have T.J. Warren just a little cheaper. Here we have Paul George at SF after 2 miserable performances against the Grizzlies and Spurs. We'll cut him a break. He now draws a match-up with DeMarre Carroll, which is a good one. Carroll is actually a decent defender when he has help, but not when he's left on an island. They've allowed the 10th most FP to opposing SF's and have been worse as the season has progressed. In this offense, George is extremely safe. They will get him his 13+ shots at a minimum and you can guarantee 30-35 fantasy points. If The Brooklyn Nets find a way to keep it close, the sky is the limit here. We've already seen him gover over 50 numerous times and is safe to say that Paul George is going to have some huge games that blow $8300 out of the water. He's also fine to be paired with Westbrook. They naturally cut into each other's production, but if the game stays close it doesn't really matter. The Nets give up such an incredible amount of peripherals that it's hard for a guy like PG13 to crap the bed. I do slightly prefer T.J Warren with Devin Booker out, but will have a lot of exposure to both. Let's touch on a guy that may fly under the radar and certainly shouldn't.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.42 DK - 31.78
Small forward is offering you a lot and it's not going to be easy to ignore some of these guys. I'm personally diversifying my exposure at SF more than anywhere else. I just see the other positions being more clear and having a few traps I'm fine staying away from. At small forward, though, there's 5 or 6 guys who can legitimately get it done. Brandon Ingram has slowly become the star of this Lakers squad and looks to have a pretty promising future. Aside from the occasional 50 piece, Ingram typically bounces around from 25-35 fantasy points. He excels in fast-paced games and struggles in the half-court set. The 76ers like to run as much as the next guy and I think this game actually goes over the 221 mark. Ingram is another safe option at SF with more than enough upside. We're done with the Lake show now, but have plenty to go on the Philly side of the coin. Let's do it. Now.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 48.52 DK - 47.25
We've ignored the Sixers so far, though guys like J.J. Redick and Robert Covington are definitely interesting. A guy like Bob Covington should be getting more attention, but there's a lot of options at SF. That's definitely not what's going on at PF. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the 2nd most expensive option. There isn't much depth (yet) and the mid-range will have a bunch of over-owned meh options. Ben Simmons will be highly owned as well, but he should be. Go ahead and do yourself a favor and stop looking at DvP when it comes to Simmons. At this point, he is getting the best defender every team has to offer. It does not matter. It matters how fast the game will be and where his opportunities will come. Against the fastest team in the nation, that should be no issue. It'll be Ingram, Kuzma, and Nance that try a hand on Simmons and none will make much a difference to a guy that looks to score as his 3rd priority. Simmons is going to stud the stat sheet tonight and I think a 40 FP floor is conservative. He has no ceiling if it stays close. You won't be able to pay up for all of these guys, so you'll have to be smart. The opportunity cost at PF for value is not there. Simmons is going to give you 34+ minutes of production against a Lakers team that loves to run the floor and forget who to cover. He's by no means safer than Westbrook as a superstar, but I would take him over Harden at his price easily.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.6 DK - 33.45
While the Thunder have struggled to start with an 11-12 record, I like how Carmelo Anthony is handling this situation. There was never a possibility of him complaining to Russell Westbrook or Paul George because he knows where he's at in his career, but it's still nice to see him play with energy. When you're getting 20+ shots a night for over 10 years and then straight to the 3rd option, it can't be easy. Melo is still playing team ball and contributing where needed. His price has dipped below $7k on both sites and he'll only need you in the 30's to reach value. He can usually do that with ease against opponents like this. As a 3rd option, Melo has been very matchup-dependant. He had a decent game against the Jazz who struggle against athletic PF's, but has been atrocious against almost every other "slow it down" team. Tonight, that's certainly not the case. Melo is going to get plenty of open looks and opportunities in the open floor to attack. Because of his price drop, I don't think you have to look at this as playing 2 stars from the same team. He's more priced like a role player that has immense upside. While we're kind of forced on these Thunder with 5 games on the docket, these are guys we'd be looking at on a 15-game slate. The Nets stink and the Thunder have a monstrous amount of upside if it can stay close.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 49.93 DK - 52.07
We're right onto the other 76ers superstar in Joel Embiid. The Sixers have 2 guys right now that are just nonsensical when it comes to their age and ability. Embiid, like Simmons, is fixing up veterans on a nightly basis like it's no big deal. The guy doesn't really have a baseline, but typically jumps from 42-55. Against a Lakers team that can't cover a big, I'm willing to bet a lot on closer to 60. He's proven his upside with a 90+ FP game and I'm sure we'll see a couple more this year without warning. Embiid will see a combo of Brook Lopez and umm... Kyle Kuzma? Larry Nance? Andrew Bogut? I have no idea what the Lakers plan to do with Embiid tonight, but I can promise you that he will have the advantage for every second on the floor. This is a game you should be tuning into for the sole purpose of seeing 6'9 wing forwards try to cover Joel Embiid. As long as these 2 teams are able to keep it close, the sky is the limit. His price is high and rightfully so, but you'll have to make a decision. The next guy we touch on is safe and will help you in efforts to pay up elsewhere. As we sit, I have 50% each.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.98 DK - 30.97
We're right back to these Thunder with our 4th and final of the night in Steven Adams. While Westbrook, George, and Melo all bring some flash, Adams is right up there at his price. He will never get you the 50 FP some centers can, but has a double-double before entering the stadium against these bigs. Adams has been consistently getting 30-34 minutes and has been used a ton in the PnR with Westbrook. Over 30 FP in each of his last 3 and 6 of the last 9 is very good to see. Adams isn't necessarily streaky, but can go quiet for long stretches. The Nets are going to toss Jarrett Allen and Tyler Zeller at Adams, who will both try their best to get under his skin. It won't work and he'll end up dominating them on the boards. If you do think this game blows out, Adams might be the guy you avoid. He has been seeing bigger minutes and I'm sure they wouldn't hate to give him some rest. If it stays close, all aboard the Steven Adams safe train. Good luck tonight to everyone and make sure to comment if you have any questions!
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Kyle Kidman 😂