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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/5/17
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Point guard
Russell Westbrook FD - $10700 DK - $11000
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 50.69 DK - 52.39
We've only got three games to choose from tonight when looking at our top fantasy plays, and there is jut one way to go to spend up, and that is Russell Westbrook. If you're on DraftKings, FanDuel or both, Russ stands alone as the sole $10K+ play on the day, and while he may not be universally owned, I can see a case for fading him in very large GPP's, he will be a popular cash option and I wouldn't be surprised to see him over 50% owned in double ups particularly on FanDuel where he'll only eat up 18% of your overall salary. Russ seems to be gaining momentum on the push back to the Westbrook of old, posting four double doubles and three triple doubles in his last seven contests, and paying over 6X points per dollar in four of those games at this salary. Ricky Rubio's a solid defender, and the Jazz as a team are one of the toughest opposing matchups for the point guard position, but this is Russell Westbrook, and it's a slim pickin's type of slate.
Kyle Lowry FD - $8500 DK - $8700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 41.87 DK - 43.79
in regards to just how slim the pickin's are tonight, it's going to be tough to get out of the point without spending some cash, which leads to the case for fading Westbrook. Our next two plays reside right at the top of the heap with Russ, but don't require quite as much salary commitment. They also each project for better PPD return. First we have Toronto Raptors Kyle Lowry, hosting the Phoenix Suns. That's the selling point here, is the matchup. The Suns don't play defense, they allow extreme fantasy production at every position and point guard is no exception. In just their last five games heading into last night's game in Philadelphia, the Suns are allowing 62 FanDuel points to opposing point guards. This game has a combined pace of 102.8 and sports a 224.5 projection with the Raptors favored by 13.5, though with only three games we can't be as particular on blowout concern as we might be on a fuller slate. Lowry is coming off of one of his worst performances of the season against Indiana on Friday night, and should be ready for a nice bounce back showing this evening.
Damian Lillard FD - $9100 DK - $9400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 44.21 DK - 46.12
Sandwiched in between Westbrook and Lowry is Damian Lillard. Lillard and the Trailblazers will host the Wizards tonight, who come in on the tail end of a back to back, and are still without John Wall. Advantage: Lillard. Tim Frazier is no John Wall, and Damian Lillard should be free to drop buckets all night long. Even if Bradley Beal slides over for a bit, he won't be able to cover Lillard all night. Damian should see his full allotment of minutes in this one, which has been an average of 38 over his last six games, five of which Lillard shot 29 points or better in. If he continues scoring like he has been down this stretch, it's only a matter of time before we see Lillard back in the $10K club, so now is the perfect time to get in while the price is depressed.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal FD - $7600 DK - $7600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 38.56 DK - 40.07
The narrative was with John Wall going down, Bradley Beal was going to step up and be the man in Washington. Thing's haven't quite worked out that way though, as Beal has struggled a bit in the four games without Wall. In the first game he dropped 26 points in 35 minutes and paid over 6X PPD at his current price, and that game coincidentally was against these same Trailblazers. Since then it's been a bit of a roller coaster, though he did take a elbow to the face against the Sixers, and attempted to wear a mask for protection a couple night's later against Detroit which may have hindered his performance more than it helped. Regardless, Beal has seen a steady run of minutes and usage with Wall out of the way, and it's a matter of time before he starts scoring 20+ on the regular again. These two teams run a similar pace, which is league average, but with just a 5.5 point spread, there's no reason to think Beal doesn't see 35 minutes at the least in this one which gives him plenty of time to find his shot.
Devin Booker FD - $7100 DK - $8000
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 36.5 DK - 37.93
DeMar DeRozan FD - $8700 DK - $8500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 41.48 DK - 41.58
These two plays face-off with each other in Toronto, and will spend much of the night on each other. First we have DeMar DeRozan. Double D has bounced back nicely after leaving mid-game against the Hawks last Saturday with a knee ailment, which was clearly bothering him for some time, as he struggled mightily in the games leading into that contest. He has since returned to his old self and in his two games back following his early departure he's averaging 28 points, 4.5 boards, 5.5 dimes, .5 block and a steal per game in 34 minutes. He'll have the good fortune of going up against Devin Booker tonight who doesn't have a defensive game at all. On the offensive end however Booker is a scoring machine averaging 31 points in 33 minutes per game since sitting out last Sunday with an inflamed toe. Booker has flashed 7X upside twice in the past week, and both of these guys paired together make a compelling piece to a game stack, with significant risk, but potentially great reward.
Small forward
T.J. Warren FD - $6800 DK - $6400
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 34.63 DK - 33.78
The Suns are on their third game in four days, but don't expect that to slow them down any. Phoenix plays the fastest game in basketball, and play a Toronto team that isn't shy when it comes to running the boards either. This should open up a lot of opportunity for T.J. Warren, who flirts with 20 points on a nightly basis and has no trouble filling the stat sheet either. Warren was shut down in Detroit last Wednesday, but that game not withstanding, he has scored at least 18 and upwards of 27 in six of his last seven with 5.7 boards, a block, and 1.5 steals per game in that stretch, showing as much as 6.75X upside. The Raptors aren't a pushover at the three, but aren't a threat to shut anybody down either. If we're spending up in our back court plays, Warren presents a reasonably priced way to start out our front court.
Otto Porter FD - $7000 DK - $6900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.05 DK - 33.5
While we expected Bradley Beal to be the man with John Wall out, Otto Porter has stepped up nicely for the Wizards in the four games they have been without Wall. Starting with a stellar performance against the Trailblazers in which he double doubled with 24 points, 10 boards, to pair along with two assists, a block and three steals, he ended the night with a 7.25X PPD performance and has continued to stuff the stat sheet every game since. Tonight he meets up with the Blazers once again this time in Portland, and that last game was no fluke as the Blazers can't defend against the three at all. Over their last five games they're the weakest defense at the position and look to Porter to put together another monster 36 minute outing. It's a fantastic spot for Porter, and I'll have a ton of exposure in all formats.
Joe Ingles FD - $5000 DK - $4900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 23.73 DK - 24.49
Don't look now, but here come the Jazz. Utah have put together a solid five game winning streak as I write this, (Monday night's game has yet to start) including two massive blowouts. Joe Ingles has certainly contributed to the recent success, averaging 31 minutes per game and contributing points, rebounds, and assists, as well as picking up several steals in those contests. He's been shooting the rock well, going 44.9% from the field and 46.8% from three. Value is tough to come by tonight, with just three games on the docket, and we can't spend all the way up everywhere so Ingles presents a nice way to find safety and value even against a Thunder defense that has been particularly tough on opposing small forwards this season.
Power forward
Markieff Morris FD - $4800 DK - $4700
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.54 DK - 25.63
As I was just saying we can't spend up everywhere, and it appears most of our value will come at the four as the priciest option is only $7K. We'll start things off though, with our cheapest play of the night, Markieff Morris. Not only is Morris our cheapest play we're choosing to spotlight on tonights three game set, he also presents the highest PPD projection despite going against Al-Farouq Aminu, one of the toughest defenders at the position. Morris has been anything but reliable since returning from sports hernia surgery, but he did flash some life against the Pistons on Friday night when he scored a season high 23 points and paid nearly 9X PPD in just 27 minutes. To put some perspective, Morris scored more points Friday night than he did in the previous three games combined. It remains to be seen if this Morris is here for good, but on a short slate such as this, I'll roll the dice on Markieff as my top value play of the night.
Serge Ibaka FD - $5200 DK - $5000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 25.27 DK - 25.17
Serge Ibaka has struggled to score this season with the Raptors, but has come around recently scoring double digits in three of his last four outings, and capped it off with a three for four performance from beyond the arc Friday night against the Pacers scoring 15 points, a feat he accomplished only twice in November. In addition to the scoring coming around Ibaka has been putting up impressive defensive numbers all season long, averaging two blocks per game over the last five games, with two steals in that span. With the scoring starting to come around, paired with the defensive game, Ibaka is poised to become a solid fantasy threat and looks to continue building on Fridays performance tonight against the Suns who are nearly as bad at defending the PF position as the Pacers are. Ibaka has yet to flash much upside this season, but as a cash game play, he should definitely get you where you need to be.
Derrick Favors FD - $7000 DK - $6600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.2 DK - 30.19
Utah's game against the Wizards is just getting underway as I write this, so I can't say how things have gone with Rudy Gobert reclaiming his spot as the Jazz starting center, shifting Derrick Favors back to the power forward spot. We know going in that the minutes are being restricted though, and I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the team choose to rest Gobert on the tail end of the back to back tonight against the Thunder. Favors meanwhile has been phenomenal filling in at the five while Gobert was sidelined for 11 games with a bone bruise, capping his start at center off with two straight double doubles and 54 points scored in three games. He's shown 7.5X upside more than once while subbing for Gobert, and as long as Favors can continue to see 30+ minutes per game, he will remain a solid play at this price point.
Center
Jusuf Nurkic FD - $7400 DK - $7200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 35.36 DK - 35.14
Until Rudy Gobert is back to full run and off any type of minutes restriction he remains out of play, which means tonight, spending up at center means Jusuf Nurkic. Center is a tough position to target tonight, as five of the six teams we have on the schedule rank among the 13 toughest teams at the position to target, and targeting Phoenix means locking Jonas Valanciunas who sees hardly any minutes. So we're going to return to the game with the lowest projected total, but no blowout risk. First up is Nurkic who struggled mightily against Boogie Cousins on Saturday night, compiling five personal fouls and seeing just 24 minutes. Prior to that game Nurkic was consistently seeing 30-35 minutes per game, compiling three double doubles in five games. Nurkic has been dominant in the paint, is shooting 45.7%, with 7.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game, if you have the salary to spend up at center, then Nurkic is the way to go.
Marcin Gortat FD - $4700 DK - $5200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 21.43 DK - 21.31
If you need to save however, then look across the court to the opposing bench and Marcin Gortat. Marcin is a riskier option than Nurkic, but for the price presents solid upside potential as the tradeoff, as evidenced by the 9X PPD he posted Friday night against the Pistons. It was his seventh double double of the season, with 12 points and boards, plus three assists and four steals. The Blazers are a top ten team at defending the five, but they do rank worse than Washington, and are allowing five more fantasy points per game to the position than the Wizards are over the last ten contests. Gortat struggled against Portland when these two teams met last week, but he's also significantly cheaper now than he was then so the price is much more appealing this time around. If I had to choose I'd take Nurkic in my cash games, and reserve Gortat for my tournament lineups.
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image sources
- Russell Westbrook: (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Price tags are ideal and you can build pretty much any good lineup you want tonight….seems like the gpps will be won based on who plugs in the right Center…and maybe the right SF combination. All the other positions seem to be pretty equal across the board and you cant go wrong with any of the top guys. I’ll probably use T. Chandler but the ‘Rap could esily turn that into a blowout and he not see the minutes. So in that case, spending down for Poeltl may be the sleeper tonight. Allows you to go with Lillard/ Lowry and mid tier across the board.