Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns, left, is tied up by Denver Nuggets forward Joffrey Lauvergne, of France, during the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Oct. 30, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Happy Sunday, NBA DFS die hards! Sadly the best DFS game of all is happening at 3:30, so we'll only have access to the NYK/ORL game if you play the 3:30 slate on FanDuel for some reason. Methinks you'll probably fade that slate like I will, so we'll focus on the later games instead. Game on!
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Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 49.77 DK - 51.34
Well the Thunder ended their 3 game skid against Minnesota, but it came at the cost of Westbrook's daily fantasy contributions. He scored 10 fewer fantasy points than any of the games in his last 6. And 7 games ago? Westbrook played the Spurs, and kinda sucked from a fantasy perspective. A lot of that was bad luck - Westy shot 5/22 from the field, and easily could have had 3-4 more assists if his teammates hit a couple more open shots. This game also has the closest spread by far of any other game on the slate at -4 - the next closest is GSW over Miami by 10.5. Of all the big money options going today, I'd guess that Russ has the highest floor. Point guard is also so thin that it's fairly hard to find value elsewhere.
Let's discuss the rest, because really, it's hard to declare an obvious second play here. Curry and Dragic will square off in the GSW/MIA game, but both have significant issues. Dragic's minutes have been all over the place recently, and Curry is a decent candidate to lose minutes if the game is remotely out of hand as he nurses his hand. The Spurs have no real fantasy point guard, and that game has the lowest total on the slate. Ball and Paul play in LA, but both have their own minutes issues (the Rockets haven't played a close game in a month it seems like, and the Lakers have an itchy trigger finger with their guys when games get out of hand). That leaves us with Teague and Rivers - I actually don't mind picking one of these dudes on the basis of their floor. If the Clips can keep the game close, Rivers could probably be a pretty good play. I don't think I'd trust Teague though given that he's just come back from injury and the game has a double digit spread, though.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 55.5 DK - 57.97
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.05 DK - 26.66
Two incredibly high upside plays, but have you looked at the Rockets game log recently? They haven't played a game decided by fewer than 14 points since October 30th. Like, how the hell are we supposed to figure out what their actual minutes plan is, here? The Rockets have the highest implied total of any team on the slate, but they're also favored by the widest margin. Harden's averaged 60+ fantasy points in the last 3 games regardless of blowout status, though, and if you have an appetite for a little risk he's arguably a higher upside guy that Westbrook is.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.25 DK - 33.32
If you see a Minnesota player in a write-up, it's usually because of a relatively high floor, and Wiggins is no exception. He's played fewer than 35 minutes in a game exactly 3 times all season, and while Minnesota is heavily favored here, it just hasn't really matter with Thibs running the show. Wiggins should have an excellent match-up with the offense-only Lou Williams, and the 5x points per dollar projection our lineup optimizer is spitting out seems fair to me. He's pretty scoring dependent, but if you go down the list of shooting guards things don't really get a lot prettier. Enjoy!
Also considered: Lou Williams.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.35 DK - 26.46
It takes a lot to run a player against Oklahoma City, but there's sort of a perfect storm working in favor of playing Kyle Anderson tonight. First of all, he's just underpriced considering that Parker is only playing 14-18 minutes a game. He was pretty bad in a lopsided rematch with Memphis, but prior to that he had paid 5x-7x points per dollar in 7 consecutive games. The Spurs are another team that is happy to rest guys when games get out of hand, and the relatively close spread here should help raise Anderson's floor. I love him as a safe way to get away from a bad position cheaply for value.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.4 DK - 26.55
Another player in the Rockets question mark arena. What is the Rockets real plan when it comes to Ariza's minutes? I suspect it's something like 35-38 minutes per game. And here's the thing - he might not need those minutes to pay off against Brandon Ingram and the Lakers. The Lake-show are playing the league's 2nd fastest PACE this season, and Ariza thrives against teams that play lazy perimeter defense in the way the Lakers do. Look for him to catch a lot of passes from Harden and Paul, and take his fair share of wide open shots in the first half especially. Ariza also consistently plays 32+ minutes even in blowouts, so he seems like a great option to pair with Anderson at the SF position.
If you really want to pay up, both Paul George and Jimmy Butler seem similar to me here. Both are playing tons of minutes and are generally paying slightly below their value in subpar match-ups. I wouldn't be devastated to see their names in cash game lineups, but would much rather spend my excess salary elsewhere.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.92 DK - 29.35
I guess I just don't get why Taj is still so cheap? I mean he was bad in the OKC game, but most people are bad against OKC, and prior to that he had averaged a double-double and 33 fantasy points over the course of his previous 5 games. He's locked into a 36-40 minute rotation almost regardless of the game script, and he'll have an excellent match-up with the Clippers power forward rotation. Jordan will have his hands full with Towns, and Gibson's max energy style should give fits to Harrell or whoever else matches up against him.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 43.33 DK - 42.86
I know it's the game with the lowest total, but I just don't mind rolling out Aldridge here. He posted 26 and 9 in their meeting a couple weeks ago, and unlike at SF, the position is probably too shallow to go double cheap. He presents a mismatch for Melo or George thanks to his excellent midrange game and height, and Adams will be required to keep Gasol in check. Aldridge has also been a sneaky usage guy this season with Kawhi gone. His 28.3 USG is .3 below Kevin Durant and .3 ahead of John Wall, but he's priced cheaper than most clear first options on other teams. It's another shallow position, and Aldridge seems great here.
Consider Montrezl Harrell. His minutes are on the rise and the position has its issues today.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 46.57 DK - 48.25
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 30.45 DK - 30.32
You won't be able to pay up at every position tonight, but I think we have reasonable options across two different pay scales here. Towns is fairly priced in a medium match-up with the Clips. It's awfully nice to get him at around $9k instead of the $10k prices he's flirted with earlier this year. Gasol seems kind of like the diamond in the rough here, though. His minutes have quietly ticked up recently, playing 34, 29, and 28 in his last 3 games as compared to his 26 minute season averages. Steven Adams is an athletic and pesky defender, but Gasol's polished game that starts around the foul line at least mitigates some of Adams' low post physicality. I think he makes for a good cash play even if the upside isn't through the roof in what should be a low scoring match-up.
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