New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates a touchdown with New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, in Miami Gardens, Fla., Sunday Sept. 7, 2014. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
Welcome back fantasy football fans. Can you believe we are already in the home stretch of the regular season? It has been an odd year in a lot of ways from a fantasy perspective but with the help of our articles, podcasts, and premium tools, I hope you are having a successful season. Either way, we here at DFSR are primed to finish strong. Before jumping into my top stacks for this week, let's take a look at some of the injuries that could affect our decisions going into Sunday's action.
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Quarterback - Tom Brady
Primary Target - Rob Gronkowski
Secondary Target - Brandin Cooks
Week 13 starts and ends with Tom Brady and the Patriots offense for me. They are the third highest scoring team in the NFL behind the Eagles and the Rams and are the #1 overall team when looking at total yards. The best part about the Pats is that they never really take their foot off the pedal and Belichick made that clear in last week's post-game interview when asked why he didn't sit Tom Brady. Using the DFSR Player Lab this week, I started off with three filters and of course, it left me with just one option. The GOAT, Tom Brady, himself who is having another MVP-like season as he leads the league with 3,374 passing yards(8.27 yards per attempt) and is second to Carson Wentz with 26 touchdowns. Brady has huge upside with six games where he has thrown for 300+ yards(bonus on DraftKings) and is the only quarterback to average over 300 yards passing per game this season. My top target to pair with him this week is Rob Gronkowski who sits third in touchdown receptions and absolutely crushes the Bills, especially in Buffalo. If you are into narratives, take a look at this info from Evan Silva on Twitter.
That is pretty amazing if you ask me. I will also be building some stacks with Brandin Cooks who has been seeing a nice uptick in volume lately with 27 targets over the last three weeks. He has also produced with that volume catching 18 of those and has topped 70 yards in all three games and has scored in back to back weeks. Either way you go with this stack, it is very expensive which should help keep the ownership down but the upside is huge and there is always a ton of value plays to help get you there.
Quarterback - Jameis Winston
Primary Target - Mike Evans
After trying to play through a shoulder injury early in the season, the Bucs ended up having to put Winston on the shelf for a couple weeks to let it heal properly. He was back as a full participant in practice this week and was named the Week 13 starter just in time for a plus matchup vs. the Packers who have allowed the eighth most passing yards per game(244.1). While the Packers do rank 18th in fantasy points per game against allowed to quarterbacks, they have been a disaster against wide receivers ranked 31st in fantasy points against and the fifth-most touchdowns. That is great news for Mike Evans who has been a target monster all season with six games where he has received double-digits and best of all, his price is at its lowest point since Week 6 on DraftKings. Speaking of value prices, Winston is the 17th most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and the 19th most expensive on FanDuel this week. This stack has huge upside at a minimal cost and will allow you to fit in some other top players.
**Update: Cameron Brate was added to the injury report on Thursday with a hip issue and is questionable for Sunday's game. If he were ruled out, I believe it would add a few extra targets for Evans. Stay tuned for more updates.**
There are a couple highly correlated running back/defense stacks I will be using this week and it starts with the Jaguars and Leonard Fournette. It starts with the "Sacksonville" defense that leads the league with 41 sacks on the season, sits third in interceptions with 14, and second in overall takeaways with 25. The upside comes with their ability to score touchdowns on defense as seven of their 25 takeaways have ended up in the endzone, which also happens to lead the league this season. They are the most expensive defense on both sites but sit in a great spot at home vs. a Colts team that ranks 27th overall in yards and points per game and have just one win on the road in 2017.
I will be pairing the defense with their starting running back, Leonard Fournette, who appears to be back at full health as he was a full participant in practice this week for the first time a couple weeks. Despite coming off a disappointing Week 12 with just 25 yards rushing, he is having a terrific rookie season for the Jags with 765 yards rushing with an additional 173 through the air with seven total touchdowns. He has shown big upside as well with four games with 100 or more rush yards and with that dud last week, could be a bit lower owned in Week 13. He is in play on both sites but has much better value on DraftKings where his price has dipped below $8K for the first time since Week 6. He gets a terrific matchup vs. the Colts who rank 26th overall in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
Strongly Consider: Los Angeles Rams & Todd Gurley & Los Angeles Chargers & Melvin Gordon
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Here is a link to a cheatsheet I have been working on this season:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14g6AabIVL1CpLTk1WfDtUCCWh-yJxDljOvOeuTkngzs/edit?usp=sharing