Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/30/17

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Point guard

Damian Lillard FD - $9100 DK - $8500
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 40.52 DK - 42.37

After a big Wednesday slate, the NBA has given us a fun 5-gamer. All 5 games are worth a look and ownership shouldn't be crowded in any 1 spot. We'll start it off at point guard with Damian Lillard, who's facing off with the Milwaukee Bucks at home in the Moda Center. Lillard has been exceptional on the season and is having his most consistent one yet. He sits around the 45 FP mark on most nights and flashes the 50+ upside plenty. Tonight, the match-up with the Bucks is fine. Eric Bledsoe is a strong individual defender, but the Bucks don't really have any rim protection, which is an issue against a guy like Lillard that doesn't have to shoot to score. He is the most expensive PG on the board, but his price is fair. Point Guard isn't nearly as deep as it usually is and Lillard is a very safe bet for 40+. He also has more upside than anyone at the position and can go for 60 on any night.

Eric Bledsoe FD - $7500 DK - $6800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 33.49 DK - 33.53

We're going to stay in the same game and look at Eric Bledsoe, facing the Blazers. Unlike Bledsoe, Damian Lillard is not a good defender. He's actually very bad at defense. As a team, the Blazers have defended PG's quite well (37 FPPG allowed), but it may not be real. Against top 15 PG's, they rank 3rd worst. It only makes sense for a team with horrible PG defense and very unintimidating options down low. Bledsoe has been great since coming to the Bucks and he's found a way to fit with Middleton and Giannis without any growing pains. Since getting string minutes, he has been over 40 FP in 4 of the last 6. This is an extremely talented PG who is one of the top DFS guys when being used properly. The Bucks look like they know what they're doing with him and this match-up against the Blazers should go back and forth. Plenty of attention will be on Giannis, leaving Bledsoe 1-on-1 with Lillard to do his work. He's a tad bit cheaper than Lillard and just as safe for the price. This is the game to target for PG's.

Jerryd Bayless FD - $3700 DK - $3400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 10.86 DK - 11.75

If you want to pay down at PG, we may have some value in Jerryd Bayless emerging. As I write this, T.J. McConnell is on the downside of questionable. If he fights through this injury, you can obviously ignore Bayless on the bench. Now if McConnell sits, you have to like Bayless. He's already getting a solid 20-25 minutes a game, so an injury to the starter would have to put him over 30. The match-up with the Celtics is fine and it really just comes down to getting the playing time. He's a guy that's going to be involved and not sit in the corner for 30 minutes, so value at $3500 is going to be hit very fast.It's always going to be tough to trust a guy like Jerryd Bayless, but he's a proven commodity and if we can guarantee 30+ minutes out of a guy at his price, I'll do it every time. Make sure you keep an eye on the status of T.J. McConnell.

Shooting Guard

Donovan Mitchell FD - $6800 DK - $6900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.6 DK - 34.47

Shooting guard isn't as juicy as point guard, so it'll be important to get it right. We start it off with Donovan Mitchell against the Clippers. Mitchell, a rookie, has been one of the more impressive players on this season. He's consistently around 30 fantasy points and a big part of this offense. He'll also get to face-off with Lou Williams, who doesn't care in the slightest about defense. With so much uncertainty at the position, I think to throw Mitchell in there and count on 25-35 fantasy points is perfectly fine. His price is under $7k and he won't break your bank. The Jazz offense is typically slow, and while the Clippers aren't fast, it will be an uptick in PACE to a degree. Mitchell is safe in both cash games and tournaments at a position that only has a few solid options.

Marcus Smart FD - $6200 DK - $5200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.13 DK - 27.18

We've already touched on this game with Jerryd Bayless and we'll be touching on both teams plenty throughout this article. Vegas hasn't yet dropped a line or total in this game, but I'm expecting it to be around 220 with a 3 or 4 spread, at most. With just 5 games on the docket, it's our favorite of the bunch. We have Marcus Smart here at SG as an extremely safe option at a very fair price. He's locked into 30-34 minutes and 10-15 shots. The 76'ers rank dead last in the NBA against SG's allowing over 50 FP per game. J.J. Redick and TLC are not fit for this defense and they are getting destroyed on a nightly basis. Smart is underpriced on both sites, but especially DK, where he's close to a guarantee in cash games. Go ahead and pencil in 25 fantasy points with the upside for 40. Shooting guard isn't deep, but at least we have some safe and affordable options.

Lou Williams will see an uptick in usage with Blake Griffin out, but the Jazz aren't the easiest defense for a perimeter scorer to face.

Small forward

LeBron James FD - $12000 DK - $11700
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 58.82 DK - 62.06

It seems like LeBron just has something working for him every night and he just keeps on producing. He put up a ridiculous 60 fantasy points against the Heat before getting ejected in the middle of the 3rd quarter. LeBron has been better this season than he has in the past 5, at least from a DFS perspective. He's been consistent, has hit some crazy ceilings, and is as match-up proof as can get. It was his first ejection of his career and I'm sure it will give him a little spark He also saw just 28 minutes against the Heat, so he's ready to go. You can count him in for 35-40 minutes of domination if it stays close. Taurean Prince is a league-average defender that has a 0% chance of actually impeding LeBron James. If LeBron is on his game to any degree, he will be right over 50 FP again. He has a 70 FP ceiling that's being hit more often than it was in previous years. While he is expensive and is going to cost you elsewhere, he could very well end up being worth it.

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11800 DK - $11100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 56.14 DK - 56.23

These 2 guys seem to be in play in unison on most nights, and here we are again. If you don't love LeBron or just want to be a little bit cheaper, Giannis is the strongest of all pivots. He is just such an amazing basketball player. Last game, he saw just 26 minutes against the Kings in a blowout and put up a stupid 62 fantasy points. In games that remain close, you can expect 36-40 minutes out of him. This match-up with the Blazers is great as it should stay extremely close and both teams don't mind running the floor. The Blazers have some fine defenders in Mo Harkless and Aminu, but I think we all know how much that matters to Antetokounmpo. He's a lock for 50 fantasy points with the upside for far more. Small forward is a very interesting spot and if you're able to jam both of these guys into there, it might be worth a shot.

Wesley Johnson FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 26.96 DK - 25.51
Sam Dekker FD - $3800 DK - $3500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 10.23 DK - 10.1

Look, you're definitely playing with fire here. Wesley Johnson and Sam Dekker are tough to trust in the first place. Let alone against the Utah Jazz. Blake Griffin is going to be out for a few months and it's going to leave a huge hole in the lineup. With Rudy Gobert also out for the Jazz, I'm expecting Favors to match with DeAndre Jordan and for them to go small. This would let Johnson and Dekker play both the 3 and 4, giving each of them around 30-33 minutes. You also have to consider that this defense is very different without Rudy Gobert.  They are able to play at a faster PACE and Derrick Favors is not a good rim protector. I think Dekker is a better play as he is cheaper and a better "DFS player". I guess that just means he gets involved more. Blake Griffin was a huge piece of this offense and the ball has to go somewhere. Thes two guys are extremely cheap and I wouldn't be surprised if either destroyed value.

 

Power forward

Ben Simmons FD - $9900 DK - $9300
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 47.31 DK - 48.32

Ben Simmons is damn good. If he's able to stay healthy, I don't what his upside. He's putting up by far the best numbers of any rookie and I just don't know how this isn't a top 3 player by next season. In 5 years, probably the best. Like we've seen in LeBron's illustrious career, it's all about staying healthy. LBJ has figured out a way to stay on the court for 14 straight years and it's made him all the more impressive. Simmons has dealt with previous injuries, but he's been decently durable this year and has been playing well with some nagging pain. This match-up with the Celtics is average on paper, but it's tough to judge Simmons based on what other "power forwards" do against a team. I suppose Tatum and Brown will both see time on Simmons and neither will do much. Simmons is dicing up every offense he faces and stuffing the stat sheet like no other. You want to target him in games that should be close and don't have any crazy rim defense to contend with. Simmons is expensive and I guess it's hard for some to pay $10k for a rookie, but he's all the well worth it. He makes for a great play in all formats, though I do prefer LBJ and Giannis a position ago. You also now have Embiid ruled out, which gives Simmons even more cash game value.

Derrick Favors FD - $7400 DK - $6600
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.53 DK - 31.45

We looked at Donovan Mitchell at SG, but I don't think this Jazz team will get much attention overall. The Clippers defense is nothing to worry about and with Blake Griffin out, they are going to struggle against PF's. Instead of Griffin, it'll be Montrezl Harrell and Sam Dekker to cover Favors. Yeah, good luck with that. Favors is back to his old self, putting up 30 on most nights with an occasional 40-50 in strong match-ups. He's getting a solid 35-ish minutes a game and as many shots as he wants. It's actually been cool to watch this team without Rudy Gobert. While there definitely much worse without him, it's allowed some of these guys to show what they have in a bit of a faster-paced offense. Favors is an elite cash game play and is perfectly fine in tournaments. I actually have 100% Favors right now and while that's not necessary, he is a phenomenal play.

Jayson Tatum FD - $5100 DK - $5900
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.61 DK - 25.92

For a rookie, Jayson Tatum is very consistent. He's had plenty of games where he's struggled, but typically figures out a way to get to 25-30 fantasy points. He's also very match-up driven, meaning he's a lot better in strong match-ups than weak ones. That sounds stupid, but a guy like Derrick Favors is a lot less dependant on who is covering him than Tatum is. The match-up with the 76ers is a strong one as long as Ben Simmons doesn't shadow. He typically doesn't shadow PF's, which is why they're allowing the 4th most FP over the last 10 games at 48 FPPG. Tatum is under $6k on both sites and will only need you to get 30 fantasy points in cash games. I like him a lot more in cash games than tournaments, as he just hasn't shown a super high and consistent ceiling. This is a game you want exposure to and Jayson Tatum gives you a safe play at a position without much value.

Center

Jusuf Nurkic FD - $7400 DK - $6700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 36.87 DK - 36.4

There are a lot of different ways to go here at center and Jusuf Nurkic is a very strong option. This game between the Blazers and Bucks is one of our favorites on this slate as it should remain close throughout and both teams have rather concentrated offenses. The Bucks defense is extremely weak down low and I have no idea how Thon Maker is going to cover him. He will also see some John Henson and Bolomboy, who are far too small to cover a 280 pound 7' footer. Nurkic is inherently up and down in production, but tends to be pretty predictable. He excels against bad interiors and struggles against good ones. Makes sense. He's used a ton in this offense and I think it's a huge mismatch. Nurkic also struggles with foul trouble, and these Bucks big men are not going to give him any fits. With so many options on the slate, he shouldn't be any higher than 20%. Go ahead and get exposure in both cash games and tournaments.

Al Horford FD - $7300 DK - $6800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.1 DK - 36.34

If you're not a fan of Jusuf Nurkic, which I know many aren't, Al Horford is a great pivot. Horford has been electric on this offense and while he's still tough to trust, you can be sure that he's going to shoot 15 times and see the floor for 32+ minutes. With Embiid out for the 76ers, they are seriously lacking any type of skilled size. Holmes and Okafor aren't bad, but they are far better on offense than defense Horford is a solid offensive player and neither of those guys will be able to stay with him on the perimeter. He put up 31 fantasy points when these 2 last played and I think that's a very safe projection. If the game stays close, he could very well get over 40 FP at $7k. I prefer Nurkic, but it's not by much.

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