New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady looks to pass during the first half of a preseason NFL football game against the New York Giants Thursday, Sept. 1, 2016, in East Rutherford. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
We are entering the home stretch of the NFL season with a lot of teams going in opposite directions. For instance, the 49ers will debut their big trade acquisition in Jimmy Garoppolo as they prepare for the future. Meanwhile, the Giants will trot out Geno Smith because, lolz. There are plenty of solid matchups this week and value at all stops along the salary tiers. Let's take a look at what Week 13 has to offer.
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Quick note: I’m giving a few more recommendations than normal here because pricing really matters this week and the considerations are different for the different sites.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 23.37 DK - 23.93
Brady is the clear the top overall points option on the slate (doubly so on DK where both Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson aren’t available on the main slate). The only real question with Brady is whether you can absorb the high salaries. It’s close. Brady has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the last three weeks, all blowouts. With the game on the road against Buffalo Vegas has it staying somewhat close (Pats -7.5) with New England sporting the highest implied total on the day. It should be said that Buffalo’s defense is much better against the pass than the run and that’s something of a concern. The Pats have been employing an RBBC and making some progress there so it’s not unreasonable to think they prey on Buffalo’s major weakness. But this is still Brady and they’ve also used the short passing game as de facto run in the past. I’m siding with Brady’s track record and the Vegas total here though paying all the way up for him could prove a little difficult with a few big money RBs available on this slate.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 19.51 DK - 20.66
The Rams have taken the leash off of Goff over the last few weeks. He’s attempted 37 or more passes in four of the last five games which is significant considering only one of them saw them playing from behind. They’ve looked to establish the pass early and often which is a sharp reversal from the beginning of the season where they relied heavily on the run. Goff’s seen an uptick in his completion percentage over the short term and thrown nine touchdowns to one interception in the last four. He struggled somewhat in his first meeting with the Cardinals 22-37 for 235 yards, but that was still a 33-0 win for the Rams. He’s priced reasonably at $6700 on DK and could be a heavy target there this week.
The Cheapies
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 19.59 DK - 20.24
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 17.99 DK - 18.67
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 15.9 DK - 16.99
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 15.81 DK - 17
All four of these guys are coming very cheap on DraftKings where we might be able to find some value in their respective skillsets. For starters, all four can run which, in this price tier, really helps. Smith’s price has come down sharply after some early season feel good and we might be buying low on DK if the Chiefs can sort anything out with their offense. Taylor will likely be playing catch up against the Pats, and like I said before, Vegas doesn’t have that game getting too out of hand.
Hundley gets a Tampa Bay defense ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and the former’s coming off his best week yet with three TD passes against an excellent Steelers’ D. And finally, Trubisky gets the woeful (and fast-paced) 49ers. Dude’s already run for 4 TDs this season and is min priced. I hate piling all of these together, but there could be a strong case to punt the position on DraftKings this week.
Consider Carson Wentz and Russell Wilson on FD though they aren’t available on DK.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 21.02 DK - 23.12
The Rams’ offense is completely rolling right now and they trail only the Eagles in point differential on the season. They’ve had the luxury of picking their matchups on offense with Jared Goff throwing 37 or more passes in the last three weeks, a divergence from their early season reliance on the run. And that has cut into Gurley’s recent performance as he’s been averaging only 15 carries a game over the last four. But the increase in passing has gone his way with the lead back averaging more than five targets a game over that span. The Cardinals rank 4th in DVOA against the run, though it should be noted Gurley carved them up for a 22/106/1 line in Week 7 while also chipping in 4/48 through the air. He’s third among active backs in usage and could overtake Leonard Fournette if the former’s touches keep on their downward trend. We are paying a premium for Gurley here, but he’s worth it considering the other options on the main slate.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 19.17 DK - 21.17
The Chargers enter the week as the, by far, biggest home favorite on the slate at -13.5 (27.5 implied points) against a Cleveland defense that’s (not so) quietly allowed the second most points in the league this season. Though their defensive numbers against the run look decent (2nd in DVOA) it should be said that they really haven’t faced many above average running attacks. They are coming off a week allowing a 23/114/1 line to Joe Mixon (his best game by a mile) and over 100 yards to Leonard Fournette the week before. Gordon remains a top usage target in the NFL ranking fifth among active running backs and has seen 20 or more carries in four of the last seven weeks. Expect that to continue this week in a game that should be scripted in his favor. It appears we are buying Gordon at a steep discount this week as he’s the 6th most expensive back on both sites. Considering his weekly usage and matchup, this makes for an ideal cash game spot.
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 16.29 DK - 17.55
Because both sites’ pricing was likely locked in prior to the Sunday night game, neither FanDuel or DraftKings adjusted Williams after his breakout performance against the Steelers. All the better for us. With both Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones out of the mix for the Packers, Williams completely dominated the running back touches (45 of the 55 offensive snaps) on his way to a 21/66/1 rushing performance while chipping in a 4/69/1 line through the air. It was a top overall fantasy week. The touchdowns were likely a little lucky (especially the one through the air) but the usage was elite. If the Packers are without Ty Mont again this week then we could see another big usage week out of Williams against a Bucs’ D that ranks significantly worse than the Steelers. If he’s the sole back again then he’s likely an incredibly chalky play on both sites.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 16.96 DK - 20.81
Allen’s having a second-half-of-they-year resurgence and only Antonio Brown’s heroics have kept Allen from being the top fantasy WR over the last two weeks. In that time he’s led the NFL in targets (27) and yards (331) while also finding the end zone three times. After a mid-season run of bad CB matchups, Allen is feasting on opposing defenses, returning to the level of an elite possession receiver. It will be interesting to see if he the Browns elect to shadow Allen with Jason McCourty. I suspect not as the Browns haven’t brought McCourty into the slot at all this season and that’s where Allen lines up a majority of the time. Considering Brown is the Monday night game and Julio Jones will likely draw a ton of Xavier Rhodes, we can view Allen as the “safest” WR on the slate. Even with the unspectacular four-week stretch he ranks 4th overall in targets with a chance to overtake Jarvis Landry if the Dolphins’ QB play continues its abysmal ways.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 14.07 DK - 17.32
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 14.66 DK - 17.38
With Robert Woods on the shelf last week we projected an increase in targets for both of these guys and that’s exactly how it played out. Both posted season highs in targets at 11 and 9 respectively. Kupp finished with an 8/116 line while Watkins put up a 4/82/1. Krupp remains the safer option of the two this week as he’ll line up in the slot with Watkins likely drawing Patrick Peterson shadow coverage. I still see the latter as something of a value because of how little the price moved up in the short term, but he’s definitely the riskier of the two. Kupp could easily see double-digit targets again and he is elite in terms of red zone targets this season. He ranks 5th in the NFL in RZ looks and one could make the case his 47% conversion rate has some run bad in it considering it’s the second-lowest rate in the top ten. Strongly consider Josh Reynolds as a punt play. He equaled Kupps’ snaps and could be a solid GPP pivot if you think Peterson gives Watkins the business.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 17.11 DK - 20.19
Don’t look now but Cooks leads New England in targets (81), yards (869) and trails only Gronk in TDs (5). It’s not easy for a wide receiver to come to a new team and gel with a quarterback. The first five games of the season he averaged 6.4 targets, while the last six he’s increased it to 8.2 per game. Over the last three weeks, he’s been a top 5 fantasy receiver and increasing targets from Tom Brady is one of the best spots you can be in football.
There is likely some good value on the Oakland WR duo of Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson with Crabtree suspended and Cooper likely to sit with injury. That’s a lot of targets to go around and the Raiders have a good matchup against the Giants.
Also strongly consider Davante Adams
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 15.41 DK - 18.91
The Chiefs are going to turn this thing around right? Right? They've lost three straight games and looked particularly bad last week against the Bills. It was Kelce's worst game of the season and his price is back down to the lowest it's been since Week 9. This is stil the leader in targets for tight ends on the season and he's seen 9 or more looks in three of the last four weeks. I'm fine buying here especially considering some of the savings you get at wide receiver.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 9.64 DK - 12.12
Despite the inexplicable 0/0/0 line from Vernon Davis on Thanksgiving, the Giants have still spent the rest of the season getting bombarded by opposing tight ends. They've allowed touchdowns to the position in nine of their eleven games. Cook was basically a no-show last week, but has seen a healthy target share over the course of the season (about 6 per game) and does have a couple of huge games on his resume. He should see increased targets with Cooper and Crabtree out of the mix and draws one of the best matchups for the position.
Jacksonville Jaguars
FD 5600 DK 4500
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 11.41 DK - 11.41
Los Angeles Chargers
FD 5300 DK 4000
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 9.75 DK - 9.75
Oakland Raiders
FD 4600 DK 3100
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 7.91 DK - 7.91
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View Comments
Call me crazy this week guys but someone no one is mentioning this week that is min price at QB is Kizer. Other than the Jaguars game his last 3 games hes put up about 15, 20, and 24 DK points. He averages 6 rushing attempts per game plus will be asked to throw being down in this game. Everyone is on the chargers this week making him an outstanding gpp play.