Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) gestures during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Brooklyn Nets Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015, in Memphis, Tenn. The Grizzlies defeated the Nets 101-91. (AP Photo/Brandon Dill)
Happy Sunday, NBA addicts! It's a 3 game slate today, but blessedly we get both Brooklyn and Phoenix as two of the 6 teams having a go at it. Should be plenty of value to be had on this smaller slate, so let's get right to work!
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Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 35.77 DK - 37.07
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.15 DK - 30.2
Do you take the point guard against the team with the worst defensive efficiency or the league's fastest PACE? Those aren't bad decisions to have to make on such a small slate, and we get both options before us here. The issue of course is that both are very expensive compared to where they've been recently, and on a small slate that could cause some salary problems. Still, Dragic is coming off of back to back games with 38+ fantasy points, and he'll have his best match-up by a country mile against the decimated Bulls. Whiteside is questionable at the moment, which should divert even more shots Dragic's way. He's looking pretty solid. Chalmers remains the primary ball handler for the Grizzlies, but his dismal shooting recently seems to be trying to patience of the Grizzlies' coaching staff. Still, at just $6k on DK it's hard to imagine him being anything but a chalk play.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 22.61 DK - 22.32
He instantly becomes the highest owned point guard on the slate by a mile if Jeff Teague misses this game, as expected. Not a whole lot of analysis here - he put up a very balanced 8/6/6 with 4 steals when Teague missed the Miami game, and he gets a significantly better match-up here against the league's 2nd fastest team. I wouldn't overthink this one too much - he's a much better play that even Dragic and Chalmers in their plus match-ups (but only if Teague sits of course).
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 31.95 DK - 32.32
Likely the overwhelming cash game chalk, Wiggins brings basically everything you'd like to see from a double-up play today. He's a favorite for 38+ minutes in close games, is coming off back to back games where he's paid 5x points per dollar on these prices, and has one of the league's best match-ups in the Suns. Throw in the fact that Devin Booker is banged up and I like this spot even better, given how physically Wiggins plays. This is an easy one to set and forget.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 38.21
Reke's minutes have settled into the 30ish range, which isn't ideal on this salary, but it's still a match-up like you read about, and the usage is there. Evans is just at the mercy of whether his shot is falling. In his last 8 games he's paid better than 5x points per dollar in 5 of those, and shot better than 50% from the field in 4 of those. In the 3 games where he shot less than 50% from the field, he was simply terrible. Still, if there's a game where he's a favorite to have a good shooting performance, this is one of them.
Also considered: Devin Booker, but honestly the toe injury scares me enough that I'd rather just play the other guys.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.56 DK - 38.42
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.82 DK - 33.04
It's a tale of two potential strategies out of the small forward position today - go expensive and inefficient, or go cheap, risky, and possibly inefficient. Good times - nay - the best of times! This duo represents the expensive and relatively inefficient plays. Butler has played absurdly consistent minutes, but the usage with his new team hasn't exactly justified the price just yet. His value goes way up if Teague misses this one (which is what we're assuming as of this writing), but even with Teague gone he's no sure thing to hit value. Warren, meanwhile, has been showing flashes of hitting on this price recently, but his season averages here are fairly dismal. If you play Warren you're just hoping that the game stays close (which is more likely against a Teague-less squad, of course), and that he hits the higher end of his minutes. Both of these teams are in the bottom 10 of the league defensively, so it stands to reason that both of these fellows have as high a points per dollar floor as anyone at this very shallow position.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 23.55 DK - 23.11
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 20.84 DK - 21.28
And now for the cheaper and riskier options. Parsons has been better on a points per minute basis recently, but Brooks is still hogging all of the minutes. If Minny and Phoenix are two great match-ups for opposing offensive players, Brooklyn is the very best in the league, and both of these guys are obviously up against the Nets. It's going to be tough to stomach playing either of them, though, simply because they are so uninvolved in the offense recently. If you elect to go in this direction you are probably doing so because you just don't trust the big money options, and the Siren's Song of the BKN match-up is simply too much to overcome. I can't say I'd blame you in that case, but recognize that 3x points per dollar is very much in play for either of these two.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.81 DK - 33.75
The position is awful, Gibson has 40 minute upside, he's still too cheap for his production, and he has the second best match-up of the slate. Easy one, and might be 100% owned for 50/50s.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.29 DK - 28.77
The second power forward spot is the tricky one, but I'm leaning Markkanen here. Listen, the Bulls are probably going to be significant underdogs in every game for the rest of the season, but somebody has to play the minutes, right? In spite of their perpetual blowout status, Lauri was on a 4 game streak of paying 5x points per dollar before 2 understandably profound beat downs at the hands of Utah and Golden State. Their being 7 point underdogs to the Heat might as well be a pick 'em as far as Chicago game scripts are concerned, and Whiteside potentially missing this game would be a huge boon to his rebounding upside.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 47.04 DK - 48.56
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.9 DK - 45.9
Both are simply terrific plays for a slate this size, so it's really going to come down to what kind of money you need to spend and your tolerance for risk. Per Doug Norrie's research, Towns has been the most consistent fantasy performer among the big money players this season. Gasol, on the other hand, has flashed 70+ fantasy point upside, and he also has a ridiculous match-up with Brooklyn's lack of big men. Tough to go super wrong here - love either one.
Keep an eye on the Hassan Whiteside situation: If he winds up missing, Kelly Olynyk will be the likely beneficiary, and would represent a great value on both sites.
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