Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving replete with all the food, family and football you could handle. It's another holiday in the books and we now march on into the rest of Week 12 for the NFL. There are a bunch of potential blowouts looming this week, but also a number of teams in great spots to put up a lot of points. Let's take a look at some picks for the week.
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Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 26.77 DK - 27.7
If he isn’t the total and complete chalk on this main slate then I’ll eat my hat. Literally, I’ll ingest an entire hat that I own. Wilson is in the perfect cash game spot this week. He’s playing the 49ers who are allowing the most opponent plays per game this season (68.9 / game) and have the 30th ranked DVOA defense against the pass. Wilson is basically the entire Seahawks’ offense leading the team in passing (of course) but also rushing. He’s likely to finish the season like this and it’s rare for a quarterback to shoulder the entire load. But there’s Russell just doing everything and that should be the case again this week in what represents basically the perfect DFS matchup. Wilson is the highest scoring fantasy quarterback of the season and that’s unlikely to change after this week.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 21.85 DK - 22.7
Let me be very clear: Wilson is far and away the best quarterback value of the week. It’s not particularly close (for me) and the additional QBs here are strictly GPP pivots/alternate slate plays. Cam’s made some improvements this season in terms of his accuracy in that the 62% completion percentage is up from the career-worst 52% last season. Christian McCaffery has a lot to do with this considering the ease of routes he’s running and the number of targets he’s seen this season. The yards per completion are actually down which makes sense considering this new addition to the passing game. But the other welcome change is how much more Cam’s been taking off and running. He’s on pace for his most rushing yards since 2012 and already has 4 rushing touchdowns. The Panthers are -4.5 road favorites against the Jets who have a bottom third defense. Newton will also get Greg Olsen back this week which will add an additional weapon to the passing game.
Strongly consider Matt Ryan against a Bucs’ D ranked 28th against the pass this season. The Falcons could take to the air more if Freeman is out again this week. Alex Smith is also a consideration in what could very well be a bounce-back game against the the Bills. His ownership will be low because of last week’s performance but remember this is the fourth highest fantasy scoring quarterback this season.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 23.81 DK - 26.58
Bell’s 29.4 touches per game (rushing attempts + passing targets) are by far the best in the league and among RBs actually playing this week (sorry Zeke) he’s seeing a whole 4 touches more than the next closest guy in Leonard Fournette. Simply put: no other non-quarterback sees as many touches as Bell and though the price is way up there, he’s still worth it. This is the perfect running back spot for Bell with the Steelers huge -14 home favorites against the hapless Packers. Green Bay’s been solid against the run this season, but look like they’ll be without Clay Matthews on the D-line. The Packers have allowed solid games to pedigree running backs (Ingram, Howard, Zeke, etc) though that being said, this isn’t a perfect matchup for Bell. But the usage and potential game script outstrip some of those concerns and I think we can safely pay up for him this week.
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 19.77 DK - 21.14
Fournette’s ankle looked just fine last week, and the Jags must not have had any concerns when they played him 50 snaps and gave him 31 looks in the offense (28 carries, 3 targets). He turned that into only 118 total yards, but it’s the usage I’m most interested in here. Fournette is in a great spot going into this week with Jacksonville looking to solidify their playoff chances (they’re 7-3 and on top of the AFC North) against a bruised and battered Arizona squad. The Cardinals’ D isn’t bad, but Jacksonville is a -4.5 road favorite and has shown a willingness to give Fournette outsized touches. As I said in the Bell write-up, he’s second among active RBs in usage and looks like he’s over the ankle issues he struggled with the last couple of weeks. I think the prices on both sites are completely reasonable and the lack of a TD last week kept them in check.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 19.4 DK - 21.13
I know, I know. You don’t want to see this name. After a crazy chalk ownership week on Hunt where he was a big disappointment, it feels odd going back to the well. There was a little bit of context behind his poor performance last week though. The weather was awful, Smith struggled to complete passes and lengthen drives and the Chiefs were forced to play more catch up late than projected. Hunt still saw 18 carries and 4 targets tallying 77 yards which would have looked a lot better had his longest run in the second half not been called back because of a suspect holding call. The Chiefs are big -10 home favorites against the Bills team ranked second to last in defensive DVOA against the run. Hunt is now the 7th most expensive RB on FD (5th on DK) and I think this price represents his true value and could even be a little low. I also suspect we are going to get him at lower ownership because of last week’s chalk dud.
Note: We are waiting for news, but if Devonta Freeman were to sit again, Tevin Coleman would be a near lock cash game play. But it does look like Freeman is going to play.
Very strongly consider Todd Gurley against the Saints who’ve been much worse against the run this season. It could be that Gurley moves ahead of one of the guys above by the time we are all set and done with final projections.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 17.22 DK - 21.2
Like I said with Wilson above, the Seahawks simply can’t run the ball at all and have had to use the pass to really get anything in the way of consistent yardage. Though they are big favorites this week against the 49ers, it’s hard to imagine them pulling away and grinding out the clock on the ground. That should leave opportunity for Baldwin who could absolutely brutalize San Fran out of the slot. The 6 targets each of the last two weeks is something of a concern, but that’s coming off of three straight games of double-digit looks. Baldwin has enough of a target track record that I’m not willing to look too much into the recent dip and if anything it’s kept his price in check. He’s not a complete cash game lock considering some of the other middle-tier value but offers a solid floor in a plus matchup. I think you can also strongly consider Paul Richardson along with Baldwin though the former has a bit more boom/ bust in him.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 16.43 DK - 20.7
What we’ve seen with Landry is it kind of doesn’t matter what crappy Dolphins’ quarterback is slinging him the ball. He sees his targets in the passing game no matter what. He’s third in the league in targets behind Hopkins and Brown though he trails those guys massively in yards. The Fins have looked his way in the red zone (6 TDs) and I do still think there is big yards’ upside on the chance his crazy target share helps him break off a long one or two. He doesn’t run deep routes, but that helps the volume with these subpar quarterbacks because he becomes the default outlet under pressure. The lack of yards is what’s keeping his prices in check and I think he’s a solid play on both sites this week in a game the Dolphins will almost assuredly being playing catch up.
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 12.57 DK - 15.42
The Robert Woods injury is going to open up a lot of targets in the passing game and Krupp stands to see at least a moderate uptick in looks from Goff. Woods had seen 21 targets over the last two weeks but Kupp comes in second on the team with 62 targets this season. Close to double-digit looks this week is completely in the cards in what could be a shootout against the Saints. Right now, this game has the highest total on the board (54, NO -2.5) and if the Rams are playing any kind of catch up then Krupp has extreme upside. He’ll likely be one of the highest-owned WRs this week because of the new opportunity and potential pace of the game. I think you can also strongly consider Sammy Watkins for many of the same reasons though the latter hasn’t seen much in the way of targets so far this year.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 13.31 DK - 16.69
With Blaine Gabbert behind center last week, Larry Fitz saw 10 targets and turned them into a 9/91/1 line. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance but it’s clear the quality of targets he saw from Gabbert were an upgrade over what Drew Stanton was throwing out there. The Cardinals look like they’ll be in catch up mode against the Jags and Fitz lining up in the slot should have him avoiding both Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. I’m mostly interested in his DraftKings price with the PPR floor. He’s really not a FanDuel play at that price.
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 18.17 DK - 22.27
It doesn’t always make sense to spend up at tight end considering the nature of the position and how often TEs are the 3rd or 4th option for teams in the passing game. But that isn’t the case with Kelce who leads the Chiefs in targets (83) going away. He has 17 more looks than the next closest guy (Tyreke Hill) and is the clear red zone target as well. The Chiefs have one of the highest totals on the board against the going-in-the-wrong-direction Chiefs and considering their offense is basically concentrated between Hunt and Kelce in terms of position talent (with Hill mixed in) I think we can safely stack the former two and have a higher implied floor. Kelce is expensive but I think spending up here makes sense this week.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.18 DK - 15.6
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 11.79 DK - 15.32
If you choose to go a little cheaper then you are getting solid lower tier pricing on both of these guys. Like Kelce, both of these guys lead their respective teams in passing targets this season though of course each of their offenses are markedly worse than the Chiefs. No matter, you are getting them discounted and both have very high floors relative to salary. Walker has seen 8 or more targets in four of the last five weeks and over the last three has averaged a 6/75 line with the upside only curbed because of the lack of touchdowns. In fact, despite leading the Titans in red zone targets he is without a touchdown this season. I think we are buying very low on Walker considering the possible run bad on finding the end zone.
Doyle has scored a couple of times this season and has also seen some games with extreme usage in the passing game. His last game, a 2/9 on five targets performance appears a total outlier. Previous to that he’d averaged 10 targets over four weeks good for an 8/69 line. He’s a fantastic cash game pivot away from Kelce if you want to spend up at other positions.
Pittsburgh Steelers
FD 4800 DK 3900
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 11.18 DK - 11.18
Carolina Panthers
FD 5000 DK 3300
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 9.28 DK - 9.28
Cincinnati Bengals
FD 4900 DK 3900
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 9.61 DK - 9.61
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View Comments
I can see why you like all of the defenses playing Green Bay, lol.