Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.54 DK - 37.42
I love how these two teams face off right as Eric Bledsoe gains his stride in Milwaukee. While we know narratives are always a little tough to navigate, this is a very new situation that should play a huge impact. I doubt Bledsoe is comfortable taking a bunch of shots away from his new teammates, but they will defer and he played a lot of PG anyway last game. He ended up playing 35 minutes and put up 41 fantasy points against John Wall. Ignoring the personal feud that Bledsoe has with the Suns, they stink against point guards. Since his departure, it's been Tyler Ulis and Mike James at the point. Two undersized guards that are in there for offense and speed. The Suns love to play fast and it'll be a certain pace-up game for a Bucks teams that plays somewhat slow. Vegas currently has this game at a 221 over/under with just a -5 line, so it should be high scoring and close. Bledsoe is way too cheap on both sites and a guy you can play in all formats, bar none.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.43 DK - 46.16
There are a lot of different ways to pay up at point guard and a lot of them are in very solid spots. At the super high-end, Russell Westbrook has a very volatile match-up with the Warriors where he is a phenomenal tournament option. John Wall and Stephen Curry are also in good spots and can be played anywhere across the board. With that being said, Damian Lillard is our favorite of the bunch. He's struggled in 2 straight tough match-ups, so hopefully his ownership will be down with the other options. The 76ers toss out T.J. McConnell and Jerryd Bayless at point guard, who have exactly a 0% chance of slowing down Dame. I assume we'll see TLC or Covington on him at some point, which will at least be competitive. Lillard has been a stud both at home and on the road this year and Vegas thinks this one stays close. He's priced fairly on both sites and I'd expect around 45 FP tonight. His ceiling is unlimited.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.81 DK - 25.35
It was very encouraging to see both George Hill and De'Aaron Fox get 32 minutes last game. They are probably starting to realize that they are both deserve to be on the court over guys like Garret Temple or Justin Jackson. Fox has jumped into the NBA and been extremely productive from the jump. He's averaging just over 1 FP per minute and has a pretty sizeable sample size under his belt at this point. When in the game, this isn't one of the guys who will defer. No matter who's on the court with him, it's his ball and he's willing to shoot if he can get open. The Lakers only have one good perimeter in KCP and he will not be on Fox. He will see a combo of Lonzo Ball and Jordan Clarkson. Neither of which do much of anything on defense. It's pretty obvious that Fox is going to be a premier PG in this league in a few years, and while he's not there yet, a sub-$5k tag on a guy like Fox who will get 30+ minutes against the Lakers is intriguing.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 58.7 DK - 62.35
We'll kick it off at shooting guard with the cream of the crop. Harden is cheaper than 2 studs we'll talk about later, but not by much. He started off the season pretty slow, but has picked it up into the James Harden we all know and love. He's now been over 50 fantasy points for 8 straight contests and is typically around 60. His floor is insane and his ceiling right up there with the other superstars (limitless). Tonight, he sees an average match-up with the Nuggets. They have a strong wing defender in Gary Harris, but he doesn't scare me off of James Harden in the slightest. Vegas does expect this game to be close and high-scoring, which is as important for Harden as anything. He will play another 35+ minutes with the ball in his hands and the FP flowing in. You will have to make some pivotal decisions on this slate, however, as we do have quite a few expensive options that deserve attention. Don't let Harden get lost in the mix. He could very well end up as the leading scorer on the night. With all of that being said, I do like the 2 stud SF's in cash games if you forced me. Harden is close.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.56 DK - 31.28
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 26.09 DK - 26.45
We'll now look at the 2 guys who will be tasked with covering James Harden. While that's definitely a downgrade in a lot of ways (foul trouble, stamina, effort), it can boost guys in other ways. Harris and Barton will both be forced to stay out there for 30+ minutes for their defense and scoring punch that's far superior to the bench guys. Barton is the more offensively-skilled of the two, so I like him more in tournaments where he can get hot and carry you to the top. Harris is more of a cash game play that should see close to 40 minutes and sit right around the 30 FP mark. He's nothing special but a very good youngster that will very rarely burn you in cash games. All in all, both of these guys are interesting in an offense that should be playing catch-up most of the night. These two will be covered by the likes of James Harden and Eric Gordon as well, which never hurts.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.98 DK - 38.13
We already looked at Damian Lillard at PG and we like his backcourt mate in C.J. McCollum nearly as much. While they naturally take stats away from each other, they both have big nights together plenty. The 76ers lack any type of perimeter defense and it's destroyed their DvP. Against shooting guards, the '6ers have allowed a league-high 56.4 FP's per game. J.J. Redick and TLC are both far below average defenders that have no chance of staying with a superstar like C.J. McCollum. His price is fair on both sites and he'll need to get you around 30 FP in cash games. He's been over 30 in 7 of his last 8 and typically sits around 38-42. If you think this game stays close like Vegas does, you have to like these 2 Blazers that make up for the majority of the offense. The 76ers don't have anyone to stop them.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 62.67 DK - 63.86
Small forward is a spot you're going to need some money for. Even if you want to pay down in 1 spot, it's almost a must to pay up at the other. We're going to talk about LeBron and Giannis, but KD, PG13, and Butler are all in interesting spots of their own. I do think LBJ and Giannis are in a class of their own, however. Kicking it off with LeBron isn't too tough. Vegas has the Cavs favored by 11, which is right on the verge of blowout territory. If this game did end up being an 11 point win, LeBron would see close to another 40 minutes against a Nets squad that doesn't play defense. They play at the league's fastest PACE and it's why a slow team like the Cavs now has a 229 over/under. The Nets are currently playing faster than any team ever. Really. James is having one of his best fantasy seasons ever and it has a lot to do with the lack of weapons around him. The usage, minutes, and production will continue at least for now. The match-up with the Nets is as close to optimal as you'll get and it's tough to keep him out of any lineup. That is until you see all the other options.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 61.4 DK - 62.03
You probably can't play both of them, so it's going to be a very difficult and pivotal choice for every person on this slate. They are both firmly in play and have a fantastic floor and ceiling. If you can find a way to play both, it might be worth it. We know James has close to an optimal match-up, but so does Giannis. The Suns are an atrocious defensive team as a whole and it mostly has to do with the PACE they play at. For example, T.J. Warren is far from the 6th worst SF defender in the league, but the Suns give up the 6th most FP at 46.2 per game. The Suns are currently playing at a 106.5 PACE, which is right up there with the Nets as the fastest in basketball. The Milwaukee Bucks play at the league's 28th PACE, so this fast-paced boost is huge for a guy like Giannis that is obviously lethal in the open court. Vegas thinks this game stays close and Giannis is a guarantee to put up 55+ if it does. The upside, like LeBron, is unlimited. He's just a tad more expensive than LBJ, but maybe it'll keep his ownership down by a few points.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.34 DK - 26.12
If you need to spend down a bit, you do have a very solid pivot in Kyle Anderson. Anderson was a guy who just stood in the corner last year and it got to the point where he was better off ignoring. This season, however, he's picked things up in the offense. He's been at 10 and 6 assists over the last 2 games and saw a higher usage (34%) than ever before. I wouldn't say what he's doing is sustainable or unsustainable, but it's a different role in the offense, so who knows. The Pelicans can't guard on the perimeter and we've seen it all year long. This Spurs squad doesn't have much on the outside, so Andersson is being given the opportunity to make a name for himself. It has more to do with the lack of surrounding pieces, but we don't care. The game should stay close and he should get his 30-35 minutes. His price is fair on both sites and he makes for an excellent play in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.15 DK - 34.25
John Collins finally saw 30+ minutes for the first time all season and it came against the Spurs. He put up 39 fantasy points in 36 minutes, which isn't surprising. This is a guy that has been producing non-stop when on the floor and was excellent in college. He's averaging well over 1 FP per minute and now sees a very solid match-up with a Clippers team that doesn't love defense. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are menaces on offense, but they rank just 19th against big men in terms of FPPG allowed. Collins is still way too cheap and a guy that is likely around $7k very soon. We also have Mike Muscala and Luke Babbitt out, so the minutes are going to be locked in. The only real problem here is the foul trouble and who he will have to guard. If he's able to stay out of foul trouble, he makes for one of the safest plays on the entire slate. I currently have him in 100% of lineups.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 42.89 DK - 42.56
With Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins on the other side, the Spurs are going to need some serious contributions from LaMarcus Aldridge. I'd expect him to be ready too. It was only 3 or 4 years ago that LMA was the AD of the NBA, putting up 20-15-5 stat lines like it's another day at work. He's certainly slown since getting to San Antonio, but has the offensive reigns this year and is letting his upside from Portland show a little bit. He's hit 45+ fantasy points 5 times so far, after only getting there 8 times in 2016. His price is way down and Popovich has no option but to play him for 32+ minutes against this interior. The Pelicans are fine and dandy against big men numbers-wise, but it has more to do with intimidation. Neither Cousins nor Davis is a great defender and they can be attacked there. Most teams just stay away unless they have a guy that needs the ball. LMA is certainly one of them. If you're worried about having too many Spurs, I would say stop at 2. Anderson and LMA complement each other and will both benefit from the same game script. If you're able to pay up a little, let's look at Ben Simmons.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.98 DK - 42.95
On paper, Ben Simmons is a horrible play. He's more expensive than ever before and facing a Blazers team that is ranked number 1 against PF's.With that being said, I think those numbers are a bit fraudulent. For one, Al-Farouq Aminu has been around for more than half of the games as a dominant defender. Looking purely at the individual match-ups, it will have to be Noah Vonleh, Evan Turner, and Mo Harkless. If you've watched any Ben Simmons, you know none of those guys have any shot. Vonleh is way too big and awkward. Turner and Harkless are way too small. Simmons is an absolute menace night in and night out and he's playing point guard as well as power forward. His price is high, but he's getting 35+ minutes consistently in close games. The ball is in his hands all game long and I don't think the Blazers have anyone to cover him. We like Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum on the other side, so a game stack is also in play. Simmons isn't the best play on paper, but I love the match-up, especially if it looks like he'll be low-owned.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 46.83 DK - 48.55
Paul Millsap is out indefinitely. It's definitely tough news for a Nuggets team that was putting things together down low, but it only helps Nikola Jokic. His usage will spike a ton and so will his per-minute production. There will also be more minutes and rebounds up for grabs. Jokic is a guy who has no problem running the entire offense and settling with a boring 60 fantasy points. He is that good. He'll be given that opportunity against a Rockets team that should struggle immensely to cover him. We know Clint Capela is an animal down low, but he actually has a shock collar on that doesn't allow him out of the paint. Maybe it'll the be Ryan Anderson turn, until he backs him into the paint and dunks on him. The point is they don't have a big man that's both big and athletic enough to stay with the Joker. Maybe it's a bold call, but a 45 FP floor and a 70 FP ceiling is what I'm looking for here. If Jokic is able to keep it close with the Rockets, this is a game with the potential fr buckets of FP's. A game stack is in the works over here.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.3 DK - 45.59
If Jokic is a little too expensive for you or if you think that game will blowout, here's a solid pivot in Kevin Love. Like LeBron, Love has seen a spike in his numbers with some of the supporting cast gone. He's taken full advantage, securing a double/double before getting off the bus on most nights. His minutes are always wonky because of his injury history, but they aren't tough to figure out. He's going to stick around for 35+ minutes in a close game, but be the first guy gone in a blowout. It makes him a little risky, but I personally think this one stays competitive, so I like him across the board. Brooklyn, like we all know, is the fastest team around and it gives opponents a bunch more shots at rebounds and assists. Love is a guy who derives his upside on peripherals, so a close game with the Nets could bring everything together. He isn't as safe as Jokic and probably doesn't have as much upside either, but a 35-50 FP game at $8k is perfectly fine on this slate.
If you're feeling crazy, Thon Maker might get forced into 25+ minutes.
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View Comments
How is Westrook at the super high end he is only 1,000 more then Lillard and to be honest I think he is the better play.
He has more upside. If Warriors blowout Thunder, Westbrook is an atrocious cash game play. If it stays close, 80+ isn't crazy to expect. Lillard will get 40+ either way.
Don't forget that De'Aaron Fox destroyed Lonzo in college. Makes things a little interesting.