Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/20/17

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Point guard

Russell Westbrook FD - $9900 DK - $10500
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 46.83 DK - 48.63

At this point, the ship has sailed on Russell Westbrook being anywhere near the fantasy player he was last year. He's sharing the ball a lot more and it's let him lessen his workload. He's still been a monster, though, putting up 40+ FP nearly every game and flashing the 60+ upside a few times. He now gets a match-up against a Pelicans squad that struggles with perimeter defense. On the season, they've allowed 43 FPPG to opposing PG's, which really isn't too bad. However, Jrue Holiday is not the right guy to cover Westbrook. He's not fast nor strong enough, and can't stay with him to the rim. Westbrook is priced into the player he is this year and will only need you about 45-50 in cash games. In what should be a very close game down to the wire, Westbrook makes for a solid play in all formats.

Tim Frazier FD - $3100 DK - $3400
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 23.76 DK - 23.84

For the sake of this article, we'll be assuming John Wall is out. He missed the game just yesterday and it's rare to see a guy return on the end of a B2B. On the off-chance Wall does play, every Washington Wizard we look at sees a slight downgrade. Frazier sees a massive one. In that game just last night, Frazier ended up with 24 fantasy points in 35 minutes. At his price, that's more than enough, and also just about his floor. He's typically a lot more active when on the court and should put the ball in the bucket more efficiently here. The Bucks are an average defensive team and we can count on the weakest of all to see Frazier. Any good defender will have his hands full with Beal and Porter on the perimeter, who will be doing the real scoring here. Frazier is an attractive min-priced PG who will get you 30 minutes and hit value. It's always something to consider on a slate like this.

Kemba Walker FD - $8300 DK - $7900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 39.86 DK - 41.49

Kemba is on fire, putting up 35 fantasy points in each of his last 5 and exploding for 60 2 games ago. He is running this offense like a well-oiled machine and this Timberwolves defense isn't going to be the one to throw a wrench into things. With Nicolas Batum back, the Wolves won't be able to put Butler or Wiggins on Kemba. Instead, it'll be Jeff Teague, who's fine, but not anywhere near the defender Wiggins or Jimmy is. We know he prefers playing at home and Vegas has the Hornets -2, so it'll remain close. The T-Wolves have a lot of strong individual defenders, but rank just 19th in defensive efficiency. Expect another 35 minutes and fantasy points out of Kemba in a top 10 spot. 

 Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal FD - $7900 DK - $8000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 41.53 DK - 43.55

We're still assuming John Wall is out. Beal is in play either way, but it's not even a discussion for me if he sits. When Wall is out, Beal jumps in as one of the higher usage plays in the entire league. He shot 23 times last night with Wall out and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number go further up in what should be a close game against the Bucks. My guess is Giannis will cover Porter, leaving Middleton for Beal. He's by no means an easy guy to score against, but this is Brad Beal we're talking about, not some replacement. He's a lock for 40 FP with upside for 75. He's no longer relying on just scoring, but can still throw up 40 real-life points on frequent occasion. He's a star in this league and one of the best number 2 options. He's able to prove that without stepping on toes when Wall sit out there. Everything above is contingent on Wall being at the end of the bench. 

Donovan Mitchell FD - $6600 DK - $6800
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.85 DK - 37.95
Alec Burks FD - $3300 DK - $3500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 19.16 DK - 19.49

It's not just you, the Jazz keep playing teams that play fast and don't play defense. Including this game, they've played the 6ers and Nets in 4 of the last 8 games. Mitchell has been insane as a rookie and he would win ROY in most seasons. The match-up with the 76ers is solid, as they've allowed the 2nd most FPPG to opposing SG's at 55.3. J.J. Redick was a fine defender on a slow-paced Clippers team, but has been pitiful in Philly. Mitchell is putting up 30+ fantasy points on most nights as this up-pace contest should be no exception. He can score in a bunch of different ways and will get a guaranteed 12-17 shots. As for Alec Burks, he's been over 20 minutes in 3 straight and over 20 FP in 2 of those. He's minimum-priced, so you have to give it a look. This game will be close and high-scoring, but I don't think the public is on is very much. The entire vibe of the Jazz is different without Gobert.

Lou Williams FD - $6000 DK - $7000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.61 DK - 37.17

I figured Lou Will would end up at $7k or $8k without Gallinari and be unplayable until later in the year. Instead, both sites are under $7k, putting him in an excellent spot for both cash games and tournaments. With Gallinari out, he's as safe as could be. He's willing to shoot 20 times in any game and this bout with the Knicks should be a fun one. They don't really have a perimeter defender to worry about, so expect a combo of Hardaway and Lee. Neither are anything to worry about for a guy in Lou Will that can score on the best of 'em. His volume is undeniable at this point and his floor is around 20 if his shot won't fall. His ceiling is supposedly 62, which he just hit a couple games ago.

Small forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12000 DK - $11500
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 60.39 DK - 61.56

Small forward may very well end up as the position that decides it all. We have 2 superstars at the top in great match-ups, as well as a couple cheaper options. Kicking it off with Giannis is pretty easy to figure out. He's facing off with a Wizards team that likes to play fast, gives up a ton of peripherals, and doesn't play much interior defense. The likes of Otto Porter and whoever else will do "fine" on Giannis on the perimeter, but none of them have any chance inside 10 feet. He's probably the best fantasy player in the NBA right now, putting up 50+ in 6 of his last 7 and showing a ceiling that is unmatched. There's no spread on this game because of the Wall news, but I expect it to be very close either way, with an O/U around 225. These 2 teams both play fast and have no issues trying to outscore you for the win. Giannis has a 50 point floor in this match-up with a realistic ceiling of 80. His unrealistic or "1-2 times a season" upside is 100. It'll happen eventually.

LeBron James FD - $11600 DK - $11300
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 58.96 DK - 61.76

No matter what you think of the Cavs or LeBron as a person, you can't sit there and deny what he's doing this season. Aside from having the best performance of the year so far (92 FD points), he's put up 55+ FP in 8 of his last 9 contests. He's playing huge minutes and about 3 positions at once. His workload will eventually need to lessen if the Cavs want to make a push in the playoffs, but it will have to at least be after D-Rose gets healthy. You can count on LeBron to continue getting big minutes until then and the production is automatic when he's on the floor. The Pistons play slow, but they aren't as good on defense as they were last year and KCP  is gone. Stanley Johnson, who's a great defender on guards, will have no shot at staying with LBJ. This game will almost certainly stay close in Detriot, so there's no blowout concern. He's cheaper than Giannis with a slightly lower floor and an identical ceiling.

Evan Fournier FD - $6400 DK - $6300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 33.43 DK - 34.01
Jonathon Simmons FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 22.97 DK - 23.07

We've managed to ignore the Magic up to this point, but don't worry, they are coming. 4 of them to be exact. Now, statistically, the Pacers for some reason have strong numbers against SF's. We know Bojan is nothing special on D, so what is it? Well, they haven't played any good SF's. The last above average one they played was Robert Covington on November 3rd. At that point, they ranked 7th worst against SF's. That's the number I expect them to finish around and I'm certainly willing to target them here. Fournier is the better option of course with much more upside, but both have a floor of around 20. In cash games, Jonathan Simmons gives you a legitimate scorer for under $5k in a fast=paced match-up. It's all you can really ask for out of an SF position that rarely brings dependable value. I don't have either of these guys locked in everywhere, but 50% or so across the board makes a lot of sense on this slate.

Power forward

Blake Griffin FD - $8700 DK - $8900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 44 DK - 45.09
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $9200 DK - $8700
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 45.51 DK - 45.75

These 2 monsters will face off in the best big man match-up of the night. Porzingis is probably better than Griffin right now, but it's very close and neither is great at defense. In fact, they've both allowed top 10 fantasy numbers to the PF+C spot. The Clippers are just a bit worse, but I'm personally a little more worried about the rim protection/rebound share of DeAndre Jordan than Enes Kanter. Porzingis is a little more pricey, but I think he ends up more popular as well. He's more popular and the new flashy toy. Griffin is still a superstar and he's putting up 40 fantasy points on most nights. Both of these guys are very consistent and in turn safe in all formats. I think I personally prefer Griffin, but any difference is marginal. Take your pick.

Aaron Gordon FD - $7500 DK - $7200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.72 DK - 35.57

Over the past 3 games, Gordon has shot 13-for-34. He did still put up close to 30 FP and 2 of the match-ups were incredibly tough, but it's nonetheless a downside. I hope people use it as a reason to get off him tonight because this is an ideal match-up. If Gordon was coming off a normal 45 FP game against a bad team, he would be close to 50% owned tonight. Instead, I think he sits around 25% and makes for an elite play across the board. The Pacers rank dead last against PF's with 55.2 FPPG allowed. Thad Yong was actually a good defender once, but he can't keep up with the pace these Pacers play at. It's a pace-up game for the Magic and we know how well Gordon plays in the open court. There's never a guarantee n game script, but there's a high chance this one stays close and tight. Gordon is my favorite play on the Magic and a guy I personally love tonight. This is the branch I'm willing to sit on.

Center

Marcin Gortat FD - $4600 DK - $5300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.01 DK - 26.96

Still priced under $5k on FD and at $5.3 on DK, Gortat remains extremely underpriced. He's put up 28 and 40 in his last 2, which are very normal performances for him in quality match-ups. He's a double/double walking off the bus in some match-ups and this should be one. For one, the Bucks just don't have size. He will be the biggest guy on the floor by a margin and boards shouldn't be tough to get. Second, Wall is likely out. While some may assume he relies on the PNR, not so much. He averaged an extra 0.16 FP per minute with Wall off. It doesn't seem like much, but everything matters. Especially at this price. He'll only need you about 25, so the upside is there in all formats. You're going to need to pay down in a few spots tonight and Gortat lets you do that while avoiding a dead spot in the lineup like some other punts.

Myles Turner FD - $7500 DK - $6800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.17 DK - 37.7
Nikola Vucevic FD - $7600 DK - $7100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 40.18 DK - 39.41

Both of these guys are firmly in play. Vucevic has only been getting 25 or so minutes, but you have to think those will go back up with him being rested and Myles Turner being on the other side. Turner has been phenomenal since returning from injury. He put up 50+ fantasy points last time out against the Heat and this is a much better match-up. Neither of these guys are good at defense and both teams in turn rank in the bottom 10 against centers. They are both similarly priced and in cash games, I'll go Turner. In tournaments, Vucevic will be lesser owned and has just as much upside. Get exposure to this game in at least a spot or two.

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