Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Well, well, well. You're back for another Sunday of NBA DFS, are you? If you've come to this article after 3 quarters of a crappy NFL Sunday, take a brief pause. Take a deep breath. And get ready for some picks guaranteed to turn around your Sunday, make women want you, and men want to be you. Or vice versa. No guarantees, but I mean, it's as close a sure thing as can be. Let's do this like Brutus.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 45.66 DK - 46.84
It's the age old question on small slates, really: How much do we take blowout risk into account? I'll tell you, the main slate tonight poses this question as hard as any I've seen recently. Every position is shallow due to a combination of slow play or uncertain minutes, and while there is value to be had, spending up is surprisingly difficult. Enter Steph Curry. $10k is a lot to pay for Steph based on his recent performance... but what do you do with a guy like in this best possible match-up for an opposing point guard? The Nets are playing the league's fastest PACE with the league's 5th worst defensive efficiency. Brooklyn was already shallow when it comes to defending opposing PGs, and now Spencer Dinwiddie is supposed to cover him? This one has all the makings of a big break-out game for Curry, but only if he stays on the floor. If he doesn't, well, it could be a disaster. Welcome to the Sunday slate, everyone!
EDIT: While I was writing this Philly dropped 53 points on Golden State in the first quarter. Basketball, man. This sport is nuts.
DOUBLE EDIT: After I got done writing, Golden State somehow came back and is now up by 18 in the 4th. Good God.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.36 DK - 32.39
So if you play Dragic today, you're doing so for one reason: consistent minutes. Dragic has played 30 or more minutes in every game he's played this season, and while that often leads to efficient pricing and not a lot of value, that's sort of something we're into on this slate. Dragic has averaged a hair under 5x points per dollar on these prices this season, and I'd venture that his average minute per game are slightly below where his expected minutes per game in non-blowouts will be going forward. Vegas has this as the 2nd tightest game on the day (a 4.5 spread), so I'd guess you'll see the Dragon play 35-37 minutes. The undersized Collison is a great match-up for Goran here, and I expect him to top 35 fantasy points here with some ease.
Also considered: Tyler Ulis, but you're taking on real risk there.
The case against the rest:
There are a lot of so-so plays tonight, but none that are great. Wall, Ball, and Lowry are a little bit expensive for my tastes. Teague has a slow match-up, Dinwiddie could get blown out, the Denver and Chicago PG situations are uncertain, Jackson and Collison don't play a ton of minutes, and then you're basically out of PGs. Weird slate for sure.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.16 DK - 29.21
Fun fact - KCP is one of the worst players in the NBA this season per PER. Do we care? Of course not. All we care about is whether or not he's going to be on the court for consistent minutes and putting shots in the air, and as of now, he's doing both. He's averaged 36+ minutes and 30+ fantasy points per game over his last 3, and while those were in excellent match-ups, he's got another one of those today. He'll either be guarded by the banged up Gary Harris or the defensively challenged Jamal Murray, either of whom should give him some room to launch shots from deep. While the Lakers' minutes have been all over the place this season (as usual), KCP has played at least 33 minutes in every game since October. I think he's got a great floor here.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 39.45 DK - 40.19
Speaking of high floors, DeRozan has averaged 5x+ points per dollar on these prices over his last 5 games, and while that's nothing new from him, you have to love him averaging better than 6 assists per game over that stretch. DeRozan has always been pretty scoring dependent, and if he can turn his excellent ability to get into the paint into more assists I can see his price climbing from here. Like a lot of high priced players DeRozan is basically efficiently priced, but Toronto is banged up enough that I'm still happy to roll with him here, particularly if Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka are out once again.
Also considered: Victor Oladipo, though I'll probably just roll with DeRozan given how similar they are in price. I do love Oladipo's upside though, particularly if he is bringing the same energy that caused him to snatch 15 boards last game.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 32.83
Like KCP, Ingram is part of the same cast of characters that is bringing some sanity to the Lakers' rotations this season. Like KCP, he's also scoring dependent, though he does rebound the position pretty well when he is engaged. He's shot a combined 35 shots over his last two games, so it look for all the world like we're catching him on the front end of a usage upswing. If that's the case, we'll probably see a 10% rise in prices over the next couple of weeks. I don't expect that he'll settle in at 17.5 shots per game, but he's still priced like the guy who has averaged 12.5 shots per game this season, and that looks to be heading in the right direction. I'll write this again before the article is over, but Denver represents one of the best match-ups on the slate. They're still playing fast, they're still playing poor defense, and this game has the highest total on the day this side of the GS-BKN game. I think Ingram will be highly owned, for good reason.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.44 DK - 24.03
The million dollar question on this slate is projecting out the Denver combo guards and wing players. Chandler's been fantastic in the last two games, but it's very hard to know what Denver's real plan is here. Harris didn't play 2 games ago, and Chandler was great. Harris came back last game and Chandler was great again - but it was a blowout. So which Chandler will show up against the Lakers? It's really anybody's guess. What we DO know is that the Lakers are playing a blistering 106.2 PACE this season (good for 3rd in the league), so there will be more possessions to be had by all. I suspect you'll see reasonable ownership on Chandler here, but I also feel like the play isn't as good as it appears on the surface.
A few others to keep an eye on: Kevin Durant could be hugely owned here whether you think it stays close or not. Our system is bullish on Josh Richardson to bounce back at some point, but man, the recent performance requires a very steady hand to roll him out there. OG Anunoby is very much in play if he draws another start.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 41.55 DK - 40.33
While there is some craziness at the wing position in Denver, they do seem to have a pretty clear plan at the power forward position, though it takes some digging to find it. Each of the Nuggets' last 3 games was decided by 17 points or more, but in the game prior to that, Millsap played 40 minutes and scored 52 fantasy points. Millsap's year to date stats are an absolute mess thanks to how wild things have been in Denver, but I'm very confident that he'll cost something like $8k in average match-ups by the end of the season. His shots per minute are slightly up this season, and the rest of his stats are tracking in line with what we came to expect from him in Atlanta. This match-up, as you well know by now, is something much better than a league average match-up, so I'm a big time buyer here.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 35.33 DK - 35.75
Kuzma has been a darling for our lineup optimizer for some time, and he continues to produce in plus match-ups. Playing against Denver bigs has gotten a lot harder since Millsap came to town, but Jokic still struggles a great deal with his help defense, and I think Kuz has the tools to make them pay here. The Lakers are finding any excuse they can to play him for 37+ minutes per game, and really only blowouts prevent him from doing so. I think he's an easy bet for a double double and 5x points per dollar in a fast paced match-up with Denver, and think he makes a great high floor cash game play.
If Ibaka is out again, Pascal Siakam becomes a phenomenal play once again.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 34.02 DK - 34.33
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 48.88 DK - 49.76
By now you've gotten your fill of me describing the pitfalls of the Denver and Lakers' defenses, but here we are once again. I think both of these guys are in play today, so it really come down to A) if you have any slots left from their respective team and B) how much salary you have kicking around. Lopez strikes me as the riskier of the two just because his minutes can be very up and down, and the Lakers can be quick to pull him if he is getting abused on the defensive end. And, well, he could get abused pretty badly here. Still, we've also seem incredible points per dollar upside out of him when things are clicking on the offensive end and on the glass, and Jokic does allow other centers to put up big totals sometimes. I think he's more of a GPP play, but Lopez is very much on my radar.
And what about the Joker? An incredible fantasy riser last season, we've seen Jokic's prices top $11k as he rolls up we seems like an unstoppable 60 fantasy points a night, and now we've seen him fall to $9k on the back of some serious inconsistency. So can we roll him today? I say we absolutely can. Like Millsap, his minutes have been jerked around as much by bad game scripts as anything else, and Jokic absolutely feeds on bad defenses. None of the Lakers bigs should be able to handle his refined post game, and I think he should bring a high floor with an absurd ceiling tonight.
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