Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
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Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 44.97 DK - 46.77
Welcome back to another edition of DFS Saturday in the NBA. We've got a solid seven game slate of hoops action tonight, which is rather generous compared to some of the weak offering's the 2017 schedule has given us to this point. Tonight has it all, high projections, fast paced teams, weak defenses, electric offenses, and a bit of injury concern. Most of that factors in to our opening play for the evening in Steph Curry of the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are an electric offense, that play at a high clip of speed and face the Sixers tonight in the game with the highest projected total of the evening. The Warriors travel into the Wells Fargo Center a week after playing host to Philly in Oakland. In that game the Philly squad held their own with the champions through three quarters before Golden State let loose in the final frame on their way to a 135-114 win. Steph was solid in that one, coming just an assist shy of a double double with 22 points, four assists and a steal in 29 minutes. He missed the next game against Orlando with a bruised thigh, returning Thursday in Boston for a less than impressive nine point showing which surely factors in to him costing $4-500 less than he did the last time these teams met up. Steph should have a nice bounce back performance tonight in a game the Warriors are a clear favorite to win, but aren't expected to run away with. Even if they do, I'd expect it to be a repeat of last week with Philly keeping it competitive long enough to allow Steph to pay value. If this one ends with less than a ten point differential as projected, Steph could see more than enough time to make a great tournament play, but even if it gets out of hand, Curry should easily pay cash value before we get to that point.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 22.35 DK - 23.34
We're going to follow Steph up with a couple of price/opportunity plays which should provide us plenty of value. First up we have Mario Chalmers and the Grizzlies hosting the Rockets. Mike Conley has a sore achilles and is expected to miss a couple of weeks, and Chalmers has been thrust into the Memphis starting rotation. He drew his first start Wednesday against the Pacers and saw 30 minutes of action. He ended the night with an 8/4/6 line which was good enough for a 5X performance. Things are much more promising for Chalmers tonight against a Rockets defense that ranks among the most generous to opposing point guards, and is trying to work Chris Paul back into action. This game has the second highest projection on the evening, and as long as Chalmers is going to continue to see 30 minutes of run time, he should be a lock for 5X points per dollar with 6X upside.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 19.83 DK - 20.56
Yogi Ferrell was seeing 33.2 minutes as a starter with the Mavericks over a four game span, but was relegated back to the bench in a reserve role last night against the Timberwolves. That could've been a counter measure to put a bigger lineup on the court against a tough, physical Minnesota team, or it could've been a result of his 0-9 shooting performance against the Spurs on Tuesday. If it's the former, and Ferrell returns to the starting five tonight against the Bucks, then he is just too cheap to pass up against a Milwaukee team allowing 43.1 FP per game to opposing point guards. This game has one of the lower projections and rightfully so, as these two teams don't particularly run the boards so much as they stroll them, so even at the price of admission, I would limit Yogi to cash games only, but if he's announced as a starter once again, he will be among my top cash plays.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.14 DK - 39.55
Lou Williams has really stepped in while the Clippers have been hurting. Patrick Beverley has missed four straight and Danilo Gallinari has been sidelined for five. In the first three games with both of those guys inactive, against the Thunder, Pelicans, and Sixers, Sweet Lou has averaged 43.23 FP per game in 37.3 minutes and 80 points scored in that stretch. I'm particularly intrigued by the FanDuel price, which is actually $900 less than he cost last night against the Cavaliers who are ranked almost identically as the Hornets in both pace factor and DvP at the two. Williams has proven to be a solid source of production for the Clippers as they struggle to get healthy, and will remain a solid fantasy option at least until Bev and Gallo return, if not long after.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 43.94 DK - 44.85
Like Lou, Tyreke Evans isn't a starter, but that doesn't stop him from seeing starters minutes. Evans is averaging just under 28 minutes per game this season, but over the past eight he has bumped it up to 31.5 per game. In that span he has seen six 20+ point performances including a 32 point showing against the Magic. He's putting up some of the best numbers of his career with the Grizz, averaging 2.0 threes per game, while shooting over 50% from the field (52.3%) for the first time ever. Tonight Evans and the Grizzlies find themselves in a pace up contest against a Houston team that is average defending against the two. Evans has flashed 6X upside at these prices, and the system isn't ruling it out tonight making him an excellent play in all formats.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.59 DK - 35.47
The Jazz are hurting bad. Rudy Gobert has missed four straight, and now Ricky Rubio missed his first game of the year last night against the Nets, and will likely miss the tail end of the back to back set tonight as Utah heads to Orlando to face the Magic. Donovan Mitchell drew the start for Rubio last night and will likely do so again tonight making him a tremendous asset. He ended the night with 35 minutes and posted a solid stat sheet with 15 points, 7 boards, and 8 assists, along with a block and steal for good measure. We haven't gotten a line from Vegas on this game yet, as I'm sure they're waiting to confirm who is in and who is out, but I'd expect a high scoring affair against a Magic team that plays the sixth fastest game in the league with a 103.9 defensive efficiency. Mitchell is once again a solid play in all formats, and will continue to be so as long as the Jazz struggle to get healthy.
DK - $11400
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 58.03 DK - 58.79
We bypassed Harden up at shooting guard because there is plenty of value to be had, where as at small forward, the system feels paying up for Giannis is without question the way to go. Only two players at the position project for more points per dollar, and neither is going to get you anywhere near the raw point total that the Greek freak is projecting for. Giannis posted a somewhat disappointing night against the Pistons on Wednesday, ending the night with 21 points and just one assist. Coming from a man who leads the game with 31.3 points per game and has averaged five assists since the addition of Eric Bledsoe to the Bucks, it was definitely an off night, but certainly an outlier as it was only the third time all season Antetokounmpo produced fewer than 50 fantasy points. Expect a big return to form for Giannis tonight against a Mavericks team with the fourth worst defensive efficiency in the league. Whatever combination of Barnes, Matthews, Dirk, they try and sic on him, they won't stand a prayer. There are other big money plays you can consider for tournaments, though as safety is concerned, I love Giannis for cash, and definitely consider him in play for tournaments as well.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.36 DK - 27.9
This is one of those plays where the sites just can't seem to agree. Taurean Prince is at a season high on FanDuel, but sits at a season low on DraftKings. I think FanDuel is right, and as such, I will take full advantage of the price on DraftKings, where Prince has 6X upside even against the hottest team in the NBA. In the past week, Prince has seen just over 33 minutes per game and dropped 14 points to go with a career high eight assists against the Kings on Wednesday. he's playing a well rounded game, and has put together a full stat sheet with all the peripherals each time out. The Celtics are on fire right now and are 6.5 point favorites to continue their winning ways tonight, but they still rank among the bottom ten teams defensively at small forward, and Prince is a reasonably priced way to gain exposure to this game. Though I said I loved the DK price, and I do, I don't exclude the thought of Prince on FD. I'll limit him to cash there due to the lack of upside, on DK, Prince is an all format play.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.91 DK - 30.34
Sticking with that same game we find Jaylen Brown of the Celtics. When it comes to shooting the rock Brown is as erratic as they come, he can go out there one night and drop 20 and follow up the next night with nine. As frustrating as that can be, when looking beyond the scoring, we see a lot of deeper consistency. First up is the minutes, Brown is a lock for 30+ minutes per game, punching out earlier than that just three times this season. Then there are the peripherals, when Brown isn't scoring, he's passing out assists, and grabbing rebounds. The Hawks are allowing 20.3 points and 8.2 rebounds to opposing threes this season and if Brown even comes close to that he's going to crush value. Based on pricing I prefer Prince on DraftKings, but this is really a pick'em on FanDuel in cash, while Brown has a higher ceiling so I'll take him in FanDuel tournaments.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 41.01 DK - 42.08
I'm a Sixers fan, and I love what I've seen from Ben Simmons this year, that said, I'm not prepared to spend 10K+ on him until I see a little more consistency in the production. Especially when I can get Blake Griffin at a significant discount, and with a similar projected point total. Griffin saw 42 minutes on the court in last night's overtime loss to the Cavaliers. He needed all 42 to post 23 points due to some poor shooting (32% from the field, 25% from beyond) but with his third double double of the season, Griffin was able to pay off 6X PPD. It was also the third straight game in which Griffin was able to notch 20+ points scoring. He'll be tested against the likes of Dwight Howard and Marvin Williams, but I think he's up to the challenge and is the best way to spend up at the four on a night without Davis or Porzingis.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.1 DK - 30.01
Moving down to the next price level we find Derrick Favors. Favors is nobody's favorite option, least of all mine, but let's look at the facts. Rudy Gobert is out indefinitely, and during his absence, Favors is tasked with leading the Utah front court. With Gobert off the court, Favors is seeing 31.25 minutes per game and averaging 13.5 points and 9.6 rebounds. Despite one of his better scoring expeditions last night against the Nets, Favors was lacking at the glass and his fantasy output suffered. He'll look for redemption tonight, but it won't come easily against a Magic team allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points to the position, but for the opportunity, Favors is priced to a point where we have to stop and take notice.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.84 DK - 26.65
Marcus Morris sat out the first month of the season, making his debut in a Boston uniform earlier this month, and quickly jumped into the starting rotation for the very hot Celtics. With Boston easing him back into action, he saw the most minutes yet this season against the Warriors (26) on Thursday, though it was on Tuesday when he posted his first double double of the season against the Nets that we saw Morris' ceiling. Since being activated, Morris has consistently paid 5X value with 7X upside when running with the Celtics starting five, and tonight he'll take on an Atlanta front court that isn't the same since the departure of Paul Millsap, and are allowing 50.6 FP to opposing power forwards. While I don't expect that from Morris, you have to like the projections from the system for 5.5X while not ruling out 6.5X upside. Morris provides all kinds of safety in cash games, and is an excellent option in tournaments as well.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 43.81 DK - 44.45
Like I said earlier about Ben Simmons, I LOVE Joel Embiid, I trust the process, but I don't trust that $10K+ price tag. Yeah, I saw the game against the Lakers, where Embiid posted one of the best fantasy performances we'll see this year, but Embiid also had his worst fantasy showing of the season just last week against the same Warriors team he's taking on tonight. So if paying up at Center, the system feels we can do well to save a few thousand in salary and look to Marc Gasol. While it was maybe overshadowed by Embiid's night in L.A. Gasol had an impressive night on Wednesday as well putting up 71.1 FD Points by dropping 39 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists and blocks in 39 minutes against the Pacers. Both Gasol and Embiid paid just under 10K on their respective salaries that night, and the sites didn't over correct on Gasol's price tag near as much for tonight's set. With Mike Conley ruled out indefinitely nursing that achilles injury look to the veteran center to try and pick up some of the slack and fill the void in his absence. If Gasol is going to continue to see close to 40 minutes a night then he has to be in consideration at this price point.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.47 DK - 34.91
Do you get the feeling we're really digging the Celtics tonight? Rightfully so I would say, as we have the best team in the game against one of the worst, and with only a 6.5 point spread so no real blowout concern keeps the Celtics well within play. We'll close out today with Boston center Al Horford. Horford is a key component when looking at the Celtics 14 game win streak and their complete dismantling of the Golden State offense on Thursday. Boston held the Warriors to 88 points, the lowest score they've posted since Kevin Durant came to town. On the offensive end, Horford led the way, with his second straight double double, sixth of the season, ending the night with 18 points, 11 boards and 2 assists in 35 minutes. From a fantasy perspective it was a little underwhelming, but against the Warriors it's a solid night at the arena. He sees a much better match up tonight against the Hawks. We've already covered every aspect of this game, from Vegas to pace, and Atlanta is godawful at defending the five. They're allowing 16.3 points and 12.3 rebounds to the position, good for the sixth most fantasy points allowed. It's a sweet situation, and Horford putting up 5X should not be a problem. Horford is an excellent cash play, and won't eat up a ton of your salary in the process.
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View Comments
Kyrie too, or am I crazy?
Not crazy at all, Kyrie comes in near the top of the list at PG, but as PPD plays go, the three given above rank slightly higher, and I don't like giving too many high priced options at a position, so went with Steph. Kyrie is definitely in play though.
Guess who had to leave the game early again last night - yep you know it - Anthony Davis - the cash game staple for DFSR. That's the second game already this year to leave and not return - just not lining up with the 1% "fact" we got here a few weeks ago. Everyone who took him knows they lost money last night - you will not make money in the long term in Cash games with this clown. But please keep recommending - it was easy money for the rest of us with a brain
smh, Bubba. Really? Sounds like you’re doing fine anyways, genius. Plus, yesterday’s were actually VERY good.