The crowd cheers after Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) scored during the first half of Game 2 in a second-round NBA playoff basketball series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
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Top Plays
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 52.41 DK - 54.46
The Warriors travel into Boston tonight in a game with just a 7 point spread. The Celtics have won 13 games in a row, so it won't be any easy task for Golden State to come in and walk away with the W, like it is most nights. The game is expected to stay close throughout, which gives these guys on both teams a far higher floor and ceiling. To be clear, if this game does happen to blowout, it will end up as a VERY ugly slate. Stack the other game if you really think it will. We will assume it stays close as Vegas is doing the same. Stephen Curry missed last game with a quad injury, but is expecting to come back tonight. Ideally, the Celtics would like to match him up with Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown, but they won't be able to with all of the other weapons. That will leave Kyrie alone on Curry. While Kyrie has been a tad bit better in the Brad Stevens defensive system, he's by no means a good defender. Curry will have his way around the court and he will hit value as long as his shots are falling. His price is down and rightfully so. He's not the same 60+ FP guy he was twice a week last year, but is sitting between 40-50 as much as anyone in basketball. This match-up with the Celtics is as safe as it gets for Curry, assuming 4 quarters of competitive basketball are played.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 55.48 DK - 55.89
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 21.95 DK - 21.29
Here is your most expensive and your cheapest option at SF all in one. Starting with Durant, he's been good, not great. Getting over 50 FP just once in his last 7 is obviously a concern, but one I think is better left alone. In my opinion, he's just going through a small shooting struggle that will inevitably disappear. Kevin Durant is the top option on this Warriors team and they do feed him like it. He will presumably match-up with Jaylen Brown for most of the game, but could see some Marcus Smart or Jayson Tatum as well. None of which are too scary for a guy like KD, who has a distinct advantage over each in one way or another. His price is down a bit and he's a guy I personally have in every single lineup. Now for Iggy, he's not nearly as exciting, but just as much in play. With so many superstars on this slate, you'll need to pay down somewhere. Iggy should get you 22-25 productive minutes at just $4k. While it's not optimal and we would be ignoring him on a full slate, our options are limited. Iggy is one of the only real value plays available on this slate and while his upside is far from high, a floor of 15-20 FP in 22+ minutes is fair. Both of these guys are firmly in play at 2 very different price points. Also, just as a note, if the Warriors have any injuries announced, Iggy is typically the guy who benefits most with minutes.
Secondary Plays
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 37.87 DK - 38.97
Both of these "secondary" plays are great options, to be clear. They just come in at a slightly lower point per dollar projection. You'll just likely run into some issues if you try to play 4 or 5 Warriors, for a couple different reasons. For one, salary. 4 of these guys are priced up and you will need a guy later at SG who is very expensive. I do think 3 or 4 of them is fine, but only because it's such a small slate. Klay Thompson in the mid-$6k's in always interesting. In a road matchup with the Celtics where the Warriors are favored by just 7, Thompson should get involved. He, like Curry and Durant, hasn't been so up and down this season. He will still have some big games, but there is a level of consistency we haven't seen from Klay in the past. You can lock him in for 30 fantasy points with a ceiling around 45-50 nowadays. Sure, he will probably go for 70 at least once or twice this year, but you can't predict it. He'll draw a tough match-up with Marcus Smart, but it's nothing Thompson can't handle. If his shots are falling and the game stays close, he could easily get to 40/45 FP.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 44.39 DK - 44.09
The Celtics and Jayson Tatum are a top 5 team against opposing PF's, but Draymond Green is no typical PF. Sure, he'll bruise with you, but he'll also shoot 3's, drive, pass, and defend. He stuffs the stat sheet as good as anyone in the game, so you can't be too worried about an individual match-up. With that being said, Tatum is young and even when they do match-up, I don't think either has a clear advantage. This game is going to be very fast-paced and it will benefit a guy like Green immensely. Living off of peripherals, he thrives when offenses shoot quick and don't get back on defense. It often turns into a rebound, dribble-up, and assist for Draymond. The Celtics will shoot as quick as anyone, though they will get back on D. They lack an interior presence and I look for Green to take advantage of it. This game could also go a little small and Al Horford may end up on Green. If that's the case, buckets and boards for days.
Top Plays
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 38.59 DK - 39.45
If Vegas is expecting the Celtics to remain close, we have to like the firepower that can keep up. That obviously starts with Kyrie Irving. Irving missed 2 games this week, but got right back into the mix with nearly 40 FP in less than 30 minutes against Brooklyn. In a huge game against the Warriors in TD Garden, Irving will be out there for well over 32 minutes. He's the only way this game stays close and gets an elite match-up with Stephen Curry. Curry, who supposedly works on his defense, is bad at all faces of it. He's just as bad as he was 3 years ago. They only give up 42 FPPG to opposing PG's, however, for a lot of reasons. The biggest one is the blowout. Most starting point guards are reaching by the 3rd quarter and on the bench by the 4th. Assuming that isn't the case tonight, Irvin will surpass that 42 number without hesitation. He' yet to explode this year with 50+, but he's been over 40 in a stretch of 10 games more than he ever was in Cleveland. This is his team and he will shoot as much as he wants. With just 2 games on the slate and me personally liking this one more, you won't find a lineup of mine with Kyrie. As for expected ownership, I bet it falls around 65%. It's high, obviously, but all relative on this slate.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 35.74 DK - 36.24
The Celtics played th Warriors twice last year and one 1. In the game they won, Al Horford played 32 minutes and had a good fantasy day. We're not looking at that for some type of production bar, but just to know that he can run with these guys while keeping it a close game. He ended up matching up with Draymond Green down the stretch, which is a bad match-up no matter how you look at. Fortunately, Horford does some has advantages over Green and he did use them, going for 6 assists to add on to his normal game. Now if this game doesn't stay close, Horford is far from safe. He could literally see 20-25 minutes of worthless time. On the other hand, if it stays close like we expect, will surpass value with certainty. He's the number 2 option on this offense and will shoot 15-20 times if he plays 34+ minutes. The individual match-up is never great with the Warriors, but they play fast and it isn't too tough to take advantage.
Secondary Plays
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 24.3 DK - 24.94
Marcus Morris hasn't gotten the reigns removed yet, so he can't be a top play yet. His minutes are still capped around 25-27, so in tournaments, the upside really isn't there. In cash games, however, it's a different story. This is a great player who does produce when given opportunity. Since coming back from injury, he's been over 20 FP in all but one contest against the Raptors. He'll match-up with a combo of Draymond Green, Kevin Durant, and David West. He is a very versatile player, so he has a game he can play against all those guys. He's not a must by any means, because you probably won't get more than 30, but that's ok. In cash, we need to pay down in a couple spots and Morris gives you that opportunity while also taking away the bust risk that anyone cheaper has. All in all, if this game stays close, a lot of people are going to hit and surpass value.
Top Plays
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 62.72 DK - 67.16
Vegas has yet to drop a line for this game, but I suspect the total will be high and the spread not much more than 5 or 6 in the Rockets favor. We'll srart it off with James Harden, who's the top play on the slate. To me, it's not close. Sure, Chris Paul may be back for 20 minutes, but I think that just draws some attention away from Harden anyway. He's the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd option on this offense and has the 3rd highest usage rate in the NBA. This match-up with the Suns is tremendous, as they play at a faster PACE than any team has in recent history (105). Devin Booker is a skilled defender, but not elite by any means. The Suns allow the 4th most FPPG to opposing SG's and Harden should have a field day. I assume they will try T.J. Warren on him as well, but it just causes other mismatches on the floor and he won't have any more luck than Booker. Harden is a must play for me, but his price makes him always fadeable. Even with just 2 games on the slate, there are decisions to be made that will drastically change your roster construction. Harden is the biggest of those decisions.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 36.34 DK - 36.99
Is Clint Capela really good or is James Harden turning any other big man into a monster? I think it lies somewhere in the middle. If Capela didn't land on this team, I don't think he would have ever had a starting job. Crazy take maybe, but it's the truth. Harden has highlighted every positive of his game and harped on it, while identifying the negatives and staying away. Harden has the most dangerous pick and roll in the game and Capela is his favorite big to run it with. He can't shoot, or dribble, but it doesn't matter when you're catching it 2 feet above the rim or 2 feet in front of it. Harden is amazing at putting the ball in the right spot for Capela and they combo well in tournaments. His rebounding doesn't have much to do with Harden, so I'll give him that. He's typically over 10 rebounds, but often sits in that crazy 15-18 range when the game stays close. The Suns already have a weak interior and now Greg Monroe and Tyson Chandler are questionable. I like Capela more than Horford, but just slightly. Both are in play and the only 2 centers I like (unless Monroe + Chandler end up out, then Alex Len is fine).
Secondary Plays
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 22.8 DK - 24.21
RyNo is one of the most frustrating DFS plays out there. We've seen him put up 40 FP plenty of times when Anthony Davis would sit out in New Orleans, but I guess those days are gone. His 3-point shot somehow NEVER EVER gets hot and there is a very legit theory that he can't shoot with a red background. I really hope that's not true, but the splits aren't easy to dismiss. And if he knew it and signed with the Rockets, he just isn't a smart human being. Fortunately, the game's in Phoenix tonight, so we don't have to worry about any of that garbage. Anderson will be open as much as he wants against the interior and it will just be a case of whether or not his 3's fall. Marquese Chriss and Alex Len will not be playing any defense at the 3-point line. If they fall, he exceeds value bye 5 or 10 fantasy points. If they don't, he disappoints with 15 fantasy points. In a fast-paced affair with a Suns team that shoots more than anyone, I reckon he ends up closer to 35 than 15. He's a guy I have a ton of tournament exposure to as my stubborn-self believes he can get hot from the field and finish with 40+ fantasy points.
Top Plays
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 40.07 DK - 41.83
Now if the Suns want to keep this one close, we know how it must go down. For one, Devin Booker has to be on his game. He can't start cold against the Rockets while Harden puts up a 70 point half. It does happen a lot to these Suns, so there is legit blowout risk if it doesn't get going quick. If the Suns come out fast and keep it close initially, I think we see a 3 or 4 point game down to the wire. In that case, it'll be tough for Devin Booker to not blow value out of the water. He may eventually see a better defender, but Harden is the match-up initially. He's destroyed him in the past and I would expect another huge game tonight, as long as his shot isn't ice cold like it is 1/10 games. The Suns play faster than any team, so they are always playing down in pace. Against the Rockets, it will be just barely. Devin Booker has taken control of this team since Eric Bledsoe left and I'm excited to see how he plays facing off with the best SG in the game. I prefer both Harden and Booker over Klay and Smart.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.94 DK - 37.35
Warren got off to a pretty slow start this year, but is fully back to the player we know and love. If you go read what I said about him when he was putting up 15 FP a night, you shouldn't be surprised. He's been the player that has won me the most money this season as the general public is pretty stupid when it comes to him. You play Warren when he will be needed for his defense and is able to capitalize on PACE. Not against the Heat, Magic, or Spurs, where he was just as highly owned, because who knows. Either way, this match-up with the Rockets is a + one. He's as safe of an option as you'll find and his price is fair on both sites. He will be needed to keep this game close as Devin Booker can't do it all by himself. Warren is a workhorse and has no problem seeing 35-40 minutes in a close game. I could also see Warren getting some time on Harden, which would force him out there for a long time. if you can give me 35+ minutes of Warren, I'll guarantee he hits value. Small forward is an interesting spot tonight and Warren is right up there with Durant in terms of FP/$/
Secondary Plays
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.02 DK - 23.64
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 19.17 DK - 18.91
Tyson Chandler and Greg Monroe are both listed as questionable, which could make these 2 guys jump out. No matter who plays or doesn't, Chriss is interesting. He's been seeing 25+ minutes and when playing well, has 40 FP upside. He is a gut I will reserve for tournaments, however, as his floor is no higher than Mbah A Moute. Now if Chandler AND Monroe miss, these 2 guys should each see over 30 minutes in a fast-paced game, putting them squarely in play in all formats. If just 1 misses, I'll ignore Len and have regular tournament exposure to Chriss. The Rockets aren't necessarily porous down low, but it's Clint Capela and nobody else. Certainly not Ryan Anderson.You can find him on the 3 point line. While we only have 2 games on this slate, there's a lot of different ways to attack them.
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