Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Homestead-Miami Speedway
Track - 1.5 Mile Oval
It's finally here! The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will crown a champion this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway following the Ford EcoBoost 400. It feels like we were counting down the days to the Daytona 500 just yesterday even though 35 races and nine months have passed. Brad Keselowski punched the final ticket into the final four this weekend via points last week as Matt Kenseth ended up winning the race denying Chase Elliott his shot at his first win and championship. That makes a final four made up of Martin Truex Jr(7), Kyle Busch(5), Kevin Harvick(2), and Brad Keselowski(3) who have 17 wins between them. Busch(2015), Harvick(2014), and Keselowski(2012) also have one championship while Truex will be seeking his first and is easily the favorite after his incredible season. Also noteworthy, is that since the start of the elimination race format the eventual champion has also won the final race at Homestead despite only having to finish better than the other three drivers. Get ready for an exciting final race NASCAR fans!
Let's now take a look at some of the trends and pre-qualifying picks. To get even more trends and race stats be sure to grab a copy of my DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet. Good luck everyone!
It was Jimmie Johnson coming away with the win last year to pick up his seventh career NASCAR Championship but oddly enough, it has not been his best track over his career. The 13.25 career average finish might have something to do with the fact in old formats he had some big leads with no need to push it but rather play it safe. He didn't make the final four this year but don't count him out as he would love to play spoiler and finish the season in Victory Lane. Kyle Busch took the checkered flag and the Championship the year before and has finished Top 10 here in four of his last five races. That is great news for the #18 team as they made their way into the final four with a win at Martinsville and will be seeking their second Championship in three years. Another driver seeking his second career Championship is Kevin Harvick and no other driver has been near as successful here at Homestead. Harvick has finished Top 5 in back to back races, won here three years ago and has finished Top 10 here in nine straight races and finished half of his career races inside the Top 5. Like Jimmie Johnson, the #42 team of Kyle Larson will also look to play spoiler this weekend and if history says anything, he will have a good shot as he has finished each of the last two races here inside the Top 5. Looking at the other two drivers with a shot to win, Martin Truex Jr. has finished outside the Top 10 in back to back races here but before that had finished inside the Top 10 in seven of his previous eight races. Brad Keselowski was involved in an accident last race here and finished 35th but finished 6th or better in his previous three races but has never won here. Buckle up ladies and gentlemen, we are in for a great race on Sunday.
As he has all season, Martin Truex Jr. headlines the rankings when looking at mile and a half tracks. Six of his seven wins this season have come on intermediate tracks and three of those wins coming in the Playoffs. On top of that, he leads all drivers by an astronomical fantasy number averaging 97.3 DraftKings points per race. I wouldn't be too concerned with his lack of success at Homestead as 2017 has been filled with first times for Truex and the #78 team. With intermediate tracks making up a third of the NASCAR schedule it comes as no surprise Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are joining Truex in the final four as they are next up when looking at average DK points per race on the mile and a half tracks this season. Harvick sits 2nd in that category with an average of 64.5 points per race thanks to a win, five Top 5's and has finished 10 of the 11 races inside the Top 10(8.6 average finish) with 729 laps led. Busch isn't too far behind averaging 50.2 points but has yet to win an intermediate track race but has four Top 5's and has led 466 laps with a 12.7 average finish. Brad Keselowski won the first intermediate race of the season at Atlanta but sits fourth among the playoff drivers on the track type with an average of 36.4 points per race with just 132 laps led and a 13.3 average finish. The top driver not in contention for the Championship on intermediate tracks is Kyle Larson who has four runner-ups, and seven Top 10's but has a disappointing 13.8 average finish thanks to three finishes outside of 30th.
It comes as no surprise that three of the final four drivers dominate the current form rankings going into the final race. Martin Truex Jr. has been the most consistent with two wins and going back to the start of the playoffs, he has finished Top 5 in eight of the nine races. Kevin Harvick punched his ticket to the finale with a win at Texas and has finished Top 5 in three straight and Top 10 in five of his last six coming into this week. Keselowski snuck into the finale on points but has also been consistent over the stretch of the playoffs with a win at Talladega and has finished Top 10 in six of the nine races. Not on the list is Kyle Busch who won the opening Round of 8 race at Martinsville to go along with wins at New Hampshire and Dover but also has three finishes outside of 15th. Over the last six races, Kyle also leads all drivers with 329 laps led.
Martin Truex Jr.($11,100) & Kyle Busch($10,500)
I will be building all of my GPP lineups around one of these two drivers as I have a strong feeling one of them will come away the Champion and win the race. Dating back to 2005(Tony Stewart), every champion had at least five wins during the season and these happen to be the only two with that distinction in 2017. Like I mentioned above, Truex has been dominant on the mile and a half tracks with six of his seven wins while averaging an absurd 97.3 DraftKings points per race. Kyle comes at a discount and while he hasn't won at an intermediate track since Kansas last season, he has been very consistent here at Homestead with a 7th place finish or better in four of his last five races here including his win two years ago.
Kevin Harvick($9,700)
If qualifying doesn't open up enough value to stack Busch and Truex together, I will be creating multiple lineups with one of them and Kevin Harvick who comes at a nice discount in the $9K range. He has been money on intermediate tracks this season with a win, five Top 5's, 10 Top 10's, and the second highest average DK points per race. He has also been the most consistent driver here at Homestead with three straight Top 5's including a win in 2014 and has finished Top 10 in nine straight races here.
Jamie McMurray($7,700)
My initial target in the value range will be McMurray this week. He isn't a winning upside play but has been very consistent on the intermediate tracks this season with eight Top 10's and an 11.7 average finish over the 11 races. He also comes back to Homestead where he has finished Top 5 in two of the last three races here.
**Stay tuned for my final NASCAR picks video of the year which I will be doing on Friday night or early Saturday morning**
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
Chris - Nice job of covering NASCAR this season. The spreadsheets, etc were great. Hope to see you back next year.