Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 11 - 11/14/17

We are coming off an absolutely crazy Week 10 that saw some heavy chalk put up complete duds. It was an off-brand kind of week with some of the top performances coming from virtual no-name backups and afterthoughts. Let's hope Week 11 gets back to some normalcy with a few prolific offenses facing very suspect defenses.

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Quarterback

Alex Smith FD 7900 DK 6700
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 21.34 DK - 22.01
If you’ve been wondering what the New York Giants defense has been up to the last few weeks, rest assured it hasn’t anything good. Opposing quarterbacks have been salivating at the chance to face this D with last three games looking like this:

CJ Beathard - 288/2
Jared Goff - 311/4 (on 22 total pass attempts)
Russell Wilson - 334/3

It’s been an all-you-can-eat buffet for opposing QBs and that doesn’t stand to change much this week. The Chiefs come in with the third highest team implied total on the main slate (27) with the ultra-efficient Smith behind center. He has the second-best completion percentage (70%) among qualified QBs facing the 28th DVOA defense who seem to be getting worse by the week. He’s the 8th most expensive FD QB despite ranking third overall in fantasy points at the position this season. Stacking Chiefs in cash games is looking very much like the play this week coming off the bye week and at slightly reduced price points. Smith’s accuracy and ability to run keep his floor high.

Tom Brady FD 8600 DK 7400
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 22.75 DK - 23.31
We are typically recommending mobile quarterbacks at this price point because strictly pocket passers can get skunked if the TDs get vultured with no effective way to make up the fantasy point difference. Brady doesn’t fit that mold, but the Patriots come in with the highest team total and Brady can be counted on for at least 35 passing attempts per game (he leads the league in total attempts on the season). The Pats D has greatly improved over the last few weeks, leading to less shootout-type games for Brady, though Vegas does like the Raiders to keep in this game with the 52 o/u (NE -7) the highest of the week. Unlike Drew Brees at the same price point (and implied total) Brady doesn’t have quite the run game at his disposal. The former hasn’t topped 30 passing attempts in any of the last three games. Brady could also get Chris Hogan back this week which would significantly boost the passing attack.

Drew Brees FD 8100 DK 6800
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 18.96 DK - 19.71
Just because I like Brady a bit more doesn’t mean we should take Brees out of the running this week. He’s playing at home as a big favorite and those are the two boxes we want to check with the guy. That being said, the Washington defense isn’t a total sieve (12th in DVOA, 13th against the pass). But the bigger concern is what I mentioned above: with the success of Ingram and Kamara in the backfield, Brees just hasn’t been asked to shoulder much of the load on offense. His passing attempts per game are way down in the short term as the Saints are grinding out huge chunks of yards (and time of possession) on the ground. It’s not a plan that’s likely to change this week. That being said, if the Redskins can keep pace then this is certainly a week we could see Brees with an uptick in attempts which would mean we’re getting him on the cheap. I prefer the two guys above but could see higher ownership on Brees this week because of the contextual factors.

Consider Blake Bortles and Tom Savage coming ultra-cheap on DraftKings

Running Back

Kareem Hunt FD 8600 DK 8000
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 19.27 DK - 20.81
Hunt’s first five games on the ground:
19/122/1

His last four games on the ground:
14/48/0

From a rushing perspective, there’s been a sharp decline in performance since being shot out of a cannon to start the season. And it isn’t like he’s faced a who’s who of rushing defenses in the last few weeks. Sure Denver and Pittsburgh are top teams, but Dallas and Oakland are garbage. But there’s reason for optimism here. For starters, the work in the passing game has remained consistent over those two time periods (basically 4 targets per game throughout) and their commitment to him as an every down back means something. The Chiefs are also huge favorites coming off a bye against a Giants’ run defense ranked 25th in DVOA. If there’s a bounce-back opportunity for Hunt, this is it. Considering Bell is the Thursday night game, I suspect Hunt to be the highest owned RB on the main.

Mark Ingram FD 8200 DK 8100
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 18.46 DK - 20.51
Ingram throttled the Bills last week on the road, finishing with a 21/133/3 game on the ground (Kamara pitched in a 12/106/1 of his own in a rushing bloodbath). After some speculation he’d lose looks because of the fumbling “issues” Ingram outsnapped Kamara 37-29 in a game that was well over by halftime. There is still solid concern that the snaps will continue trending this way and that he's in more of a timeshare than we would think. But the volume has been there since the Adrian Peterson trade and the Saints are big home favorites again this week (-7.5) which is just the spot to grab running backs. He's the goal line back and does have touchdown upside (as evidenced by last week). It's only Kamara waiting in the wings that has me a little bearish.

Chris Thompson FD 6800 DK 5400
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 14.61 DK - 17.16
Rob Kelley will sit this week leaving some question marks in the Washington backfield. Though he’s been (by far) their biggest contributor out of the running back position, the Redskins have been loathed to give Thompson any kind of heavy workload in the running game. That changed somewhat last week after Kelley went down with Thompson out-snapping Perine 45-20 and carrying the ball 9 times with 7 targets in the passing game. It’s the latter where Thompson’s seen his most usage this season (53 targets - second on the team). With the Redskins coming into the game as 7.5 road dogs to the Saints, it really seems like this is going to be a heavy snap game for Thompson who could even enter the game as the lead back. Either way, it stands to reason he’s the clear beneficiary of the Kelley injury and is an exception DK play considering the full point PPR scoring.

Leonard Fournette FD 9300 DK 8200
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 18.53 DK - 19.88
He’s coming off two pretty forgettable weeks. Week 9 saw him randomly scratched right before kickoff for a violation of team rules and Week 10 was a slog. He couldn’t get anything going and finished with an uninspiring 17/33/0 line in a Jags overtime win against the Chargers. This is a bounce-back spot for Fournette as a -7.5 road favorite against the Browns. While Cleveland has solid numbers against the run this season, it’s worth mentioning that they’ve played exactly one running back who ranks in the top 15 fantasy RBs this season (Le’Veon Bell and that was Week 1 when he hadn’t played at all in the preseason). It stands to reason their defense against the run looks a lot better on paper than the actual reality of the situation. I’m fine running out Fournette here at the top end of the pay scale as I think the recency bias and inflated CLE defensive numbers will keep people away.

Strongly consider playing the Thursday-Monday slate where you can  roster both Le'Veon Bell (Thurs) and Tevin Coleman (Monday - if Freeman sits). They are both elite plays.

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas FD 8600 DK 7400
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 16.73 DK - 20.44
If you’re noticing a theme with this week’s picks (i.e. 2-3 teams are basically monopolizing the write-ups) then that’s because there’s a great disparity in the quality of opponent and offense on the whole. Thomas is top ten in targets this season (impressive considering how little the Saints have thrown the ball) and is converting 71% of his looks. The Redskins won’t shadow Thomas with Norman with the latter lining up almost exclusively on the left side of the field. Thomas splits his time on either side and it stands to reason the Saints will want to match up him up with Breshaud Breeland as much as possible. Considering the outsize target share he sees in the Saints’ passing offense, this is a spot you can target Thomas even if he gets scripted out of work because of a potential blowout. Among the top tier WRs on the main slate, he strikes me as safer than Hopkins (because of the QB) and Thielen (because of the Rams CB situation).

Jarvis Landry FD 6800 DK 6400
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 14.41 DK - 18.16
Among the top ten fantasy scoring wide receivers this season, no one is more consistent on a week-to-week basis than Landry. His .34 coefficient of variation is the lowest and only Michael Thomas (see above) is all that close at .41. Landry’s consistency stems directly from the crazy target share he sees week in and week out. His 97 targets are behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown and his 5 TDs rank in the top 5 among WRs. The only issue with Landry is the yards per attempt are crazy low compared to his fantasy points per game contemporaries. He’s yet to top 100 yards in a game this season with most of his routes coming at or near the line of scrimmage. Honestly, I find this encouraging because there very much stands to be a week we see him break one. Last season he had six catches for 30 yards or more. This year? None. My strong guess, considering the number of targets, is this falls under the “bad luck” category. I’m not penciling it in to happen this week, but the best way to increase your chances at long catches to have the quarterback feed you the ball over and over. In this vein, Landry is among the best in football.

Sterling Shepard FD 6500 DK 6300
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 13.38 DK - 16.42
We projected a high floor for Shepard last week because of the lack of Giants’ WR options and their inability to run the ball effectively. Nothing has changed on either front and the only difference this week is a worse matchup in KC. The Giants are coming in as heavy underdogs and will likely have to throw most of the game to keep it even a semblance of close. Shepard turned a team-high 13 targets into an 11/142 game. He’ll likely draw Marcus Peters this week, and that’s a real concern but he remains Eli’s top target in the passing game and the price on FanDuel is still very much a bargain if this is his expected target share.

Jamison Crowder FD 5400 DK 4300
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 11.64 DK - 14.51
After sitting out Week 9 with an injury, Crowder returned against the Vikings and led the team with 11 targets. He struggled to convert and finished with a 4/76 line. The latter meant his price barely moved week-over-week and he’s among the best values on this main slate for both sites. Anything close to double-digit target expectation in these price tiers is a pretty easy call and Crowder’s last two games have him averaging 12. A game script with the Redskins playing catchup is how Vegas sees this game playing out and that could mean another heavy workload. The Saints have been damn good against the pass this season but their best weapons in Lattimore and Crawley aren’t likely to follow Crowder into the slot. It’s still not an ideal matchup but the reduced price more than makes up for the opposing defense.

Tight End

Travis Kelce FD 7500 DK 7300
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 13.87 DK - 17.08
Skipped a whole position with the Chiefs, but worry not. We are back at it again here with Kelce. The Giants have been shaaa-redded by opposing tight ends this season. Consider some recent games from this likes of:

Garrett Celek 4/67/1
Jimmy Graham 3/51/1
Hunter Henry 3/42/1
Cameron Brate 4/80/1

Noticing a theme here? Tight ends are getting into the end zone against this team and now they’ll have to contend with arguably the best tight end in football. Kelce leads all tight ends in yards (629), is second in TDs (5) and has among the best touchdown celebrations going. He’s expensive, but on a week where you can go a bit cheaper at WR I think paying up for him is okay considering the matchup.

Vernon Davis FD 5200 DK 4600
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 11.49 DK - 14.28
This play is completely contingent on Jordan Reed sitting out again, so we might have to wait until Sunday to find out about Davis’s viability. But if he’s again the lone Washington tight end, then rolling him out there on these prices is close to a cash game lock. His last two weeks without Reed have seen him average 10 targets and a 6.5/74 line. That’s more than enough volume in a game the where Redskins will likely need to resort to the pass. Davis is a route-running tight end and the Skins don’t have much run game to speak of anyway. Expect high ownership of Davis if Reed can’t go again.

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars
FD 5600 DK 4000
Opponent CLE
Projected Points - 11.69

Kansas City Chiefs
FD 5100 DK 3300
Opponent NYG
Projected Points - 8.19

Los Angeles Chargers
FD 4300 DK 3000
Opponent BUF
Projected Points - 8.85

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