Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Welcome back! I've changed things up a bit for just today as we have a very peculiar 2-game slate on our hands. We typically have at least 3 or 4 on Thursday, so it's a bit rough that the NBA is going with this schedule. Anyway, there's still money to be had and good/bad plays to decipher through. Let's go through each of the games in-depth instead of looking at every single person in play at each position.
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Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 46.61 DK - 48.33
We kick it off at PG like most days with Stephen Curry. Curry and the Warriors head int San Antonio to face a Warriors team that's a shell of themselves. Without Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs are unable to do most of what makes them successful on both sides of the ball. They're also running just a bit more, going from a 96.1 to a 98,2 PACE. It doesn't seem like all that much, but it's a few possessions for both teams where many different stats/FP can be accumulated. The PG spot has also been a problem for the Spurs with Tony Park sidelined indefinitely. Dejounte Murray and Patty Mills have split time and while both are average defenders, they're nothing to Stephen Curry. When Curry is on his game, he's made Pat Beverley look like a truly bad defender. Murray and Mills are no matches. Curry isn't going for insane 60+ fantasy points per night or anything, but he's been very consistent behind Durant and Vegas is telling us this will stay relatively close throughout. Curry has been over 40 FP for 6 straight games and will make it 7 here. If it stays close until the final buzzer, he could reach that 60 that he hasn't gotten to yet.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 33.57 DK - 34.81
If you want to talk about consistency, Klay Thompson is the guy. It's obviously rare for a jump shooter to be so consistent, but Klay Thompson is no run of the mill jump shooter. Aside from almost never going cold, he has started contributing in other categories a lot more. It doesn't take long to notice when comparing box scores from the beginning of 2015 and this year. The Spurs are going to be focused on shutting down Durant+Curry with no help from Kawhi, which will leave Danny Green on Thompson 1-on-1. Danny Green is a great on-ball defender, but can have trouble with off-ball screens. AKA the only way Thompson ever really gets the ball. Expect another 30 FP out of Thompson as a floor and 60 if he has one of his 8-10 hot games each year. This line is a lot closer than I would have thought, so even though this is a 2-game slate and we'd be reaching here anyway, I'm comfortable with this game. If you tell me these guys will see their full allotment of minutes, it'll be tough to miss value.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 35.21 DK - 35.19
Draymond is going to play huge minutes tonight. Without any other real interior defender with athleticism, Green will be tasked with shutting down LaMarcus Aldridge to start and Pau Gasol when LMA isn't in the game. It won't be easy for Green, but he'll have plenty of opportunity to respond on offense. LMA and Pau are troublesome with the ball, but Green should be able to take full advantage when he has possession. The slow-paced Spurs are worse against PF's than any other position, giving up 41.1 FPPG on the season. It's still not bad, but a weak point for this Spurs defense nonetheless. Green has been pretty average as expected on the season and does exactly what he's needed to do, whether it be score for the night or lock down the boards and one offensive player. Tonight, as long as the game stays close, Green will be in there for close to 40 minutes and won't be able to miss value when on the floor so long. If you're looking to fade Green, I get it. You'll just receive a friendly reminder that this is a 2-game slate and your pivots are a lot scarier. So unless you're willing to be super risky with a Nance or Ed Davis, Draymond Vs the Spurs is what you get as the PF2.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.35 DK - 40.17
We now move to the Spurs, who are expected to be digging their way out of a slight hole in this one. Vegas only has them losing by 8, so it's really anyone's game. You'd expect the Warriors to win easily, but all starters will be out there if it's an 8-point game with a minute left. LaMarcus Aldridge may not be as sexy to roster as he was a few years ago in Portland, but he's close with Kawhi Leonard out. At just $8.1K, you're getting the number 1 option on the Spurs that is sure to see 15-20 shots or more in this one. The Warriors have played very fast with a 103.4 PACE, which would have been the highest in the league in 2016. This is as big of a pace-up game for the Spurs as they can have and it's why the O/U is so much higher than a typical game in San Antonio. Aldridge will see a ton of Draymond Green, which is obviously tough. Fortunately, he has played well against him in the past and doesn't seem to get shut down by Green. He can just shoot over him or take him below the rim, where he has the advantage. Green is most effective when PF's try to "do too much" and make plays against him. LMA's style of play is to let the game come to him and take what is offered. With his price going down and PF being awful, I'd expect 80%+ ownership. I will be one of that 80 %.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 22.13 DK - 22.51
With the Spurs normally playing at one of the league's slowest paces, you won't often roster any role players. On slow-paced teams, they don't do much in terms of fantasy points. There just isn't enough to go around when you're getting 10-30 fewer possessions than some teams. However, that won't be the case tonight. We already touched on how fast the Warriors play and it will force the Spurs hand. We will see a lot more possessions out of them tonight than we normally do, which is just opportunity after opportunity for these cheapies to pay off. Danny Green is the first one, seeing 30+ minutes a game. He has been as inconsistent as ever, but he excels in fast-paced games where he can get open shots. When the Spurs play slow, he is probably the guy affected most negatively. The halfcourt game is not where Danny Green wants to be. He has picked up his rebounding with Kawhi out and it gives him a slightly higher floor. Still, you never know with Danny Green. He can find a way to get you 12 fantasy points in 40 minutes of work. He can also come away with 45 fantasy points and people would be just as surprised. He's shown the upside already this year with w games over 35 fantasy points, so he's certainly more involved than he was in 2016. I know Danny Green isn't pretty, but you only have so many options. You also have this thing called a salary that he helps with quite a bit.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.81 DK - 29.97
Gasol won't see over 30 minutes, so he's a guy that will stick better in cash games. He is a cash game beast, however, at his fair price. He's a near lock to see 25 fantasy points when given the minutes and has already been over 40 FP once. The match-up with the Warriors is going to bring plenty of scoring opportunities, let alone the increase in rebounds available. There isn't much at all exciting about Pau Gasol in 2017, but he's still holding on to the savviness that made him so great, so he's able to find a way. It's almost like watching Larry Fitzgerald play football. The Warriors don't have anyone to actually match-up, so Gasol should do work when in the game. He's a bit more affordable on DK and as of now, he's on 35% of my DK lineups and 10% on FD. I prefer Nurkic, who we'll get to.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 33.7 DK - 34.37
In one of my higher-anticipated match-ups of this young 2017 season, Lonzo Ball will take the floor and face off with Damian Lillard in Portland. It's one of the "easier" man-to-man match-ups that Ball has seen, but Damian Lillard is a goddamn monster at home. He is going to put a lot of stress on Ball on the defensive side and it'll be interesting to see how the youngin' responds. Will he be tired and try to pass out of key spots or will he try to respond and put himself on the same level? I would say it'll end up somewhere in the middle, but don't expect to be disappointed by Lonzo. Albeit an idiot father who is doing his best to tarnish his kids' names, it's not going to work. Lonzo Ball has shown that he's a pretty grown up and mature dude that doesn't really care what pops says and keeps his head on the basketball court. For a guy that looked like a big distraction coming in, he's had about 3 fewer stories than D'Angelo Russell had after a few weeks in the league. Don't expect Lonzo to go out and mimic Damian Lillard, but don't expect him to bow to his feet, either. Lillard is one of the worst on-ball defenders in the league and he struggles with size. If Ball wants to, he can take it to the hole with ease. The Blazers have allowed the 7th most FPPG to opposing PG's, so there's nothing to worry about on that front. At $7k, you'll need about 40 on this slate because of the options you'll be fading in Curry and Lillard.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.57 DK - 29.77
For me, Bradon Ingram is the best player on this team. I think most would lean Brook Lopez or Lonzo Ball, but they stink on defense and haven't shown the dominance that Ingram has when given the opportunity. Out of 7 games played, he has seen 30+ minutes in 5 of them. In those 5 games, he went for FP totals of 23, 32, 37, 31, and 38. Yep. It might not look like consistency when you first glance at the box scores, but sometimes you have to do a bit of digging. Ingram is a lock to see 30+ minutes against a Blazers squad that oozes athleticism from the wing. Ingram will be more than necessary to both play defense and give the Lakers a spark on offense. Ingram doesn't have the best jumper (still % better than some hybrids like Ben Simmons or Giannis), but it's good enough to keep defenders off-balance. The Blazers are an overall bad defensive squad and they tend to mostly struggle against PG, SF, and C. C.J. McCollum and Aminu plug up the other spots pretty nicely. Against SF's the Blazers have allowed the 7th most FP in the NBA at 48.2. Ingram is by no means a must at a SF position with some options, but full disclosure, he is on 100% of lineups I have built and the only other guy I can say that for is yet to be mentioned.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 42.81 DK - 44.44
He has now been mentioned. My favorite play on this slate is Damian Lillard. While Curry or Durant have the upside to hit 70 if the game stays close, Lillard does as well at home. The Lakers have allowed the 3rd most FP to PG's on the season at 54.5. It's still early, so things may change, but this Lakers team wasn't supposed to be good against PG's, so this is no surprise. Lonzo Ball was profiled as an excellent M2M defender, but he's still another 2-3 development years away from that ringing true. Lillard is one of the few guys in the league who has a clear advantage at home and he's scored 3 FP more in Portland since 2016. His price has risen because of his somewhat-hot start, but I think he has an even bigger night tonight. Now as I write this, he's at 36 minutes against the Jazz. IF something happens and he ends up seeing 45 minutes, just be careful.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 30.74
The problem here is foul trouble. While it's likely coincidental that he's been in so much of it to start the year, it matters. He's seeing less time on the court and is playing more hesitant. We know Jusuf Nurkic is a guy that can put up 50 fantasy points with ease and we will see more than a couple stretches of that Nurkic in 2017. He sees a fantastic match-up with Brook Lopez, who doesn't rebound at all and has just a slightly higher interest in playing defense. He's the reason the Nets ranked dead last against centers in 2016 and why the Lakers are currently 3rd worst. If Nurkic is able to stay away from foul trouble, you can chalk him in for 30+ fantasy points. Believe it or not, this is a guy who will hit 60 fantasy points as often as LaMarcus Aldridge or Draymond Green in their respective spots.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.62 DK - 24.16
We finish things off with an excellent value play. While we have Kevin Durant at SF and he can put up a monster game, we also have a couple savings options in this Portland game. We touched on Ingram, who I'm all over, and now look at Maurice Harkless. Harkless isn't a great player in any form, but he's decent at a whole lot. He is also very match-up dependant ashes nearly worthless in slow-paced games due to his inability to create his own shot. He lives off the peripherals and other guys messing up. That's not to say he can't score. He's a solid 4th option that can hit from the corner or attack backdoor against a porous Lakers interior. This match-up with the Lakers is basically ideal for Harkless, as he'll be needed as a spark on both sides of the floor. His price is way too cheap on both sites (ESPECIALLY DK) and he's fine in all formats.
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