DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Also, be sure to grab your copy of Chris's DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet.
Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy golf. Not counting the Sanderson Farms Championship, we are back to a full field event for the first time since the Safeway Open at the start of October. That also means we get back to regular viewing times but that makes me somewhat sad as I really enjoyed the late night golf we got at the CIMB Classic(Malaysia), CJ Cup(Korea), and WGC-HSBC Champions(China) events.
This week the Tour heads back to Las Vegas and TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. It's a weaker field with none of the Top 10 players and only five of the Top 50 players(Hoffman, Chappell, Simpson, Finau, Woodland) in the world golf rankings. Regardless of the field strength, there are some excellent storylines including A.J. McInerney's first career PGA Tour start in his hometown of Las Vegas. Not only did he grow up in Vegas and go to UNLV, he was also a survivor of the tragic shootings a month ago. I won't be on him for DFS this week as I feel the emotions of his first start in this setting will be a lot to overcome to play some top golf but it will be impossible not to pull for him.
The course this week is a Par 71 setup that stretches out to 7,255 yards. There are three average Par 3 holes under 200 yards and one longer one that comes in at 239 yards. As a Par 71, there are three Par 5's, two of which are of average length with the third coming in over 600 yards and will be only reachable in two by the longest of hitters. With just three Par 5's, there is one extra Par 4 this week(11 total) which is the reason you will see the Par 4 Scoring weighted a bit higher than Par 5 Scoring this week but both will be vital to players overall score. Looking at the new course breakdown(last 5 years) courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club, you can see how important Strokes Gained: Approach ash been relative to the players who finish Top 10 and it is a similar picture if you expand it out to the Top 20 and beyond. This is why you will see that stat as my #1 in my model this week. Right there with it will be Birdie or Better % which correlates very close with DraftKings scoring and it makes even more sense this week as this tournament has been, historically, a birdie fest with the winning score coming in a -20 or better in four of the last five years.
With all that said, let's jump in and take a look at some of the top picks for this week.
TPC Summerlin - Las Vegas, NV
Par 71 - 7,255 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click to check out the Course Breakdown from PGATour.com**
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#37)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($11,000)
FanDuel ($9,600)
It's a hefty price to pay for Webb this week but he checks every box on my cheat sheet and it starts with his course history at TPC Summerlin. He won the event back in the 2013-14 season and followed it up with a T4 and even though the last two years results haven't been eye-popping(T56, T31), he is primed for another top performance this time around. He comes in off a T17 at the Safeway Open after finishing last season with an excellent playoff run that included four finishes of T13 or better in his final five events. I won't be going up into the $10K+ range for cash games this week, but I think Webb makes a high upside play in GPP formats.
Luke List
World Golf Ranking (#120)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($5,600)
The numbers may be a bit skewed with a small sample size but List is another player that is trending in the right direction overall and sits #2 in my overall model. He finished in a tie for 15th last year which could have been even better if not for a third round 73 and I feel he can top that this time around. He started off the new season with a T37 at the Safeway Open, T13 at the CIMB Classic, and finished T5 at the Sanderson last week despite shooting 76/72 in the final two rounds. He has the distance to take advantage of some of the longer holes and his stats rankings looked excellent last year due to his fall performance that included a T26 or better in five events before the calendar turned. His first career win is right around the corner and could come as early as this week in Las Vegas.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#67)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)
FanDuel ($9,100)
We just can't have a conversation about players who are going to win for the first in the near future without mentioning Patrick Cantlay. There is some risk this week as he is coming back from China after his T15 last week but his form since returning to the PGA Tour last season has been terrific. Starting at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, he played 13 times in 2016-17 making the cut in every event including a runner-up at the Valspar, a third-place finish at Heritage, four total Top 10's and finished inside the Top 25 eight times. It will be interesting to see how the travel affects him and for this, I will be using him in GPP's only this week but at a price under $10K I think he makes a great start to a more balanced lineup if you are fading the $10K+ players.
Chesson Hadley
World Golf Ranking (#86)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($10,100)
FanDuel ($6,300)
It has been a roller coaster of a career for Chesson Hadley who won the 2014 Puerto Rico Open which led him to the PGA Tour Rookie of the Year award. Things went downhill after that as he tallied just four Top 10's in 2015, none in 2016 and then spent most of last season on the Web.Com Tour as he tried to earn his full card and get back to the PGA Tour. He did just that by winning twice and even with a disappointing T46 at the Web.com Tour Championship at the start of this month, he finished #1 on the money list. He has carried that momentum over into the fall season on the PGA Tour as he finished T3 at the Safeway Open and runner-up last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Statistically, he has been money in those two events gaining 4.9 strokes off the tee, 12.1 strokes on the approach, and a6.5 strokes putting. The price is high but I will be riding the hot hand into another week field event this week.
Kevin Streelman
World Golf Ranking (#146)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($7,300)
For the stats section this week, I wanted to highlight a more current stat approach rather than the full season stats on my sheet. To do this I will be using the eight rounds of data for each player using the tools at Fantasy National Golf Club. Kicking things off is Kevin Streelman who is having a fantastic start to his 2017-18 season. It started with a T13 at the Safeway Open where he gained Strokes on the field in every single category and then he followed it up with a 10th place finish in last weeks Sanderson Farms Championship where he was dynamite with the approach shot gaining 6.3 strokes on the field. Looking at my sheet, he ranks Top 30(in the field) in SG: Total, T2G, Off the Tee, and Approach(2017 stats) and also ranks Top 30 in Par Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Scrambling. Fire up Streelman in all formats this week.
Tyrone Van Aswegen
World Golf Ranking (#315)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($5,700)
Dipping down into the value range this week, I am high on Tyrone Van Aswegen who is also having a nice start to the year. After picking up just two Top 10's all of last year and three in the last two years, he grabbed his first one of the 2017-18 season in the opening Safeway Open while gaining strokes to the field in all categories except putting. Last week at teh Sanderson Farms wasn't quite as good but he still finished with a top 25 after back to back rounds of 74 on the weekend. During that tourney, he still finished gaining five strokes to the field on the approach shot but had some issues off the tee and putting. If he continues to crush greens at this rate and possibly even just putt average he will find himself in the mix again this week. I am a fan of his price on DraftKings in the low $7K range in a weak field but love his price in the sub $6K range on FanDuel and will use him in all format over there.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
image sources
Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel cash game NFL plays.
DraftKings and FanDuel Week 11 cash game NFL plays
Week 10 NFL cash game picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings