Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) runs against the Tennessee Titans during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 1, 2017, in Houston. (AP Photo/George Bridges)
Week 8 is in the books with the weather wreaking havoc all over the East Coast last Sunday. We also saw a shootout between the Texans and Seahawks as well as some out-of-nowhere WR performances. Let's try to make sense of Week 9 where it looks like paying up for quarterback and running back will be the play.
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Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 26.09 DK - 27.56
I suppose it's always a little disingenuous to recommend a player after his best game of the season, though most would admit that projecting Watson's game against the Seattle defense would have taken some out of the box thinking. Honestly, projecting Watson's 402/4 through the air, 6/87 on the ground against anyone would have been more than a little suspect. Alas, he torched the Seahawks and now draws arguably the best matchup on the board against the Colts. Watson's been a revelation this season, leading the NFL in fantasy points while effectively playing two fewer games than most of his contemporaries. The "knock" on Watson is that he's been very touchdown dependent in his scoring, leading the league with 19 while throwing significantly less than anyone in the top group. Those are likely to regress some, but the rushing yards (269 on the ground, the overwhelming leader among QBs) always keeps his floor on the higher side. The Indy defense is awful (30th in DVOA) and the Texans have, by far, the highest implied total on the board at 31. Watson is expensive and he isn't a must play, but he's the top option on the board.
**Tragic news out of Houston on Thursday afternoon. DeShaun Watson suffered a torn ACL which will require season-ending surgery. Get him out of your lineups. As a replacement, consider Drew Brees who gets an elite matchup vs. the Bucs who rank 30th in passing yards allowed per game(274.7). It is also a plus for the Saints passing game that the Bucs are likely going to be without Brent Grimes once again this week.**
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 22.2 DK - 22.98
The reason Watson isn't a must play is the savings you get on someone like Wilson. He and Deshaun went toe-to-toe last Sunday in an epic shootout that saw Wilson finish with a crazy 452/4 line and another 30 yards on the ground. That these two guys finished with more than 850 yards combined through the air is just nuts. Without any real Seattle running game to speak of, Wilson's had to throw more this season (pass attempts up 10% since last year). Add in some regression on defense and he's had to keep scoring late in games. Washington is a top 15 defense so Russ doesn't get Watson's cupcake matchup, but the 'Hawks are projected in the 26 point range and Wilson has a stranglehold on almost every conceivable way Seattle scores. There's merit to taking the leftover salary and filling out a more balanced roster, though fading Watson won't be for the faint of heart.
Strongly consider Alex Smith
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 19.46 DK - 20.87
There are quite a few interesting running backs in the upper tier this week which could make the decisions rather close. Fournette stands out for a couple of reasons. He's less expensive that Gurley and Hunt on FanDuel meaning you can somewhat confidently take the savings if you think most other factors are equal. And by that I mean he's on the short list of elite running back volume this season. He ranks fifth in per game usage (Rushing Attempts + Receiving Targets) and is coming off the bye plus a weak off before that with a tweaked ankle. The Jags are home favorites against the Bengals who have fared well against the run this season. It's not a perfect matchup, but that's where you need to factor if it's worth the savings. I think it is and see Fournette as a high floor play.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 20.18 DK - 22.19
The same logic as Fournette applies to Gurley but on DraftKings where he's the cheapest of the "big three" running backs on the main slate. Gurley ranks third in running back per game usage (26 looks per game) and the two guys above him Bell (bye) and Zeke (likely suspended) aren't available on this slate. The Rams come in as road favorites (-3.5) against the Giants who rank 24th in DVOA against the run this season which looks even worse when you consider they've played really only two teams against "good" running backs (Zeke and Melvin Gordon). Guys like Ameer Abdullah and Jacquizz Rodgers averaged 5 ypc against them. This is a great spot on DK for Gurley.
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 18.23 DK - 20.3
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 13.95 DK - 16.33
The bad news on Ingram first: he fumbled twice last week and that kind of thing is exactly how running backs start to fall out of favor with the coaching staff. He and Kamara ended up splitting carries and we are going to want to keep an ear out for this situation over the course of the week. All things considered, I still think Ingram is a solid play here as a heavy (-7) home favorite with the second most implied points on the week (28.5). We'd seen multiple weeks of him getting bell-cow type run and even in a "bad" game with the fumbles he still went 18/75/1 with 6 targets in the passing game. And that was only on 31 snaps. It's the snaps that are the concern though as Kamara also saw 31 for an even split. They are both on here because the opportunity is fantastic against the Bucs who rank 32nd in defensive DVOA and 18th against the run. Ultimately, I think we can land on Ingram and feel good about the opportunity at the price, but monitor this situation throughout the course of the week.
Keep an eye on the Ezekiel Elliott situation. It very much looks like he'll be suspended leaving some possible punt play opportunities if the Cowboys label a clear backup.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.5 DK - 20.86
I'm well aware that it doesn't take much to write up the most expensive player at each position. I actually thought about leaving Nuck off the picks here just because it would be very tough, if paying up for RB, to also roster him. But on this slate he's so far ahead of the next closest WR projection that you can't leave him out even if the lineups might not have him across the board. You are paying Antonio Brown prices for the guy now and only AB and Jarvis Landry have averaged more targets per game than Hopkins (10.85). No other main slate WR is within 2.5 points of his projection in our system. But the blowout risk is real and again, you are paying a premium to roster the guy.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 15.68 DK - 18.56
If the Cowboys are without Zeke (and I think they will be) their offense likely takes on a much different look than what they've been used to. It won't be as easy to run the ball and in a potentially high-scoring game Dez could play a huge role. Kansas City ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1s this season and Dez is averaging more than 9 targets a game. Expect that number to go up here as the Dallas pass-to-run ratio should climb. Bryant's had issues with converting targets though with his rate at only 50%. I'm looking strictly for potential volume at slightly depressed prices here and think he's an excellent DK play for the slate.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 12.58 DK - 14.97
With the Panthers shipping Kelvin Benjamin off to the Bills yesterday, Funchess becomes the clear "WR1" in Carolina. I use quotes only to mean the WR1 status is only related to his role with the Panthers. He's far from a true WR1. But the Benjamin trade does open up targets and Funchess was second on the team already in that department. A slight uptick in looks should be in the cards and his price is still firmly in the middle salary tier. He's a better FanDuel play at his prices than DraftKings and has seen 8 or more targets in five out of the last six weeks.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 12.37 DK - 15.18
Much like Funchess, an opportunity has opened up in the Giants' passing game because of the season-ending injuries to Beckham and Marshall. We just had to wait three weeks for Shepard to get back out on the field. He's the defacto WR1 in New York now and his likely to see increased volume in the passing game. The Giants still struggle to run the ball and will likely have to take to the air as road underdogs. Double-digit targets isn't out of the question for Sterling and his price on FanDuel is especially attractive.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 11.41 DK - 13.92
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 10.88 DK - 13.08
I'm just putting these guys on here as possibly salary relief WRs on a week where spending on QB and RB might be the way to go. Neither will set the world on fire (literally or figuratively) but are both coming cheap and project as their team's leaders in target share. Kupp is coming off a bye but in Week 7 saw 10 targets for a 4/51/1 line and I don't think he draws Jenkins in this matchup. Matthews is also coming off a bye and is Tennessee's most targeted WR when Mariota plays.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 12.18 DK - 14.84
Before the Giants' bye week he saw 19 targets combined in Weeks 6 and 7. Engram is listed as a TE but profiles more as a WR and has become a popular target for Manning in the wake of the WR injuries for New York. Shepard's return likely eats into that target share some, but it's encouraging that he saw higher target numbers even when everyone was healthy. The price did come up some after the bye week, but he projects in the same-ish range as Kelce and Ertz for 10-15% less depending on the site.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 8.63 DK - 10.75
Dickson's projected usage goes up along the same lines of Devin Funchess now that Benjamin is gone. He's an excellent value on DraftKings where he's coming in close to the minimum. He's averaged six targets a game over the last four weeks and could see that number tick up slightly this week. At tight end, we are typically just trying to buy midrange targets on the cheap and Dickson checks that box.
Consider Delanie Walker if he gets a clean bill of health leading into the week. Also consider Vernon Davis if the Redskins are without Jordan Reed and Niles Paul.
Jacksonville Jaguars
FD 5300 DK 3800
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 10.63 DK - 10.63
O/u 39.5 Jax -3.5
Los Angeles Rams
FD 4800 DK 3100
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 8.58 DK - 8.58
O/u 41.5 LAR -3.5
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