Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
What's better than playing DFS football on a Sunday? Playing DFS basketball on a Sunday, of course! And we get treated to a bigger fall Sunday slate than usual. Last night was one of the more confusing nights in recent memory, but Sunday brings us a handful of punts that should smooth things over for us considerably. Let's do this like Brutus.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 23.08 DK - 23.26
The Knicks went into this season (apparently) thinking the only three positions you needed on the court were PG, C, and Kristaps. By the looks of their roster, there’s no other explanation. But we really don’t care how they end up in the standings, but rather how much value we grab from the guys who actually get minutes. Jack got the start last game and played 26 minutes putting up an 8/7/5 line against the Nets. It gets just as easy tonight versus the Cavs who can’t defend anyone at all. They’ve been slaughtered by the opposing point guard because they are playing makeshift lineups without anyone to adequately defend the position. Jrue Holiday shredded them last night and I daresay they could be in trouble again here tonight. I wish Jack had seen a few more minutes but the price has barely moved and this is a good matchup.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.31 DK - 28.01
One can almost never trust a team like the Kings who are highly incentivized to lose every game and just tank the whole season. That leaves predicting their minutes an uphill climb we almost never want to endure. But today they are sitting George Hill and that should (he says begrudgingly) leave most, if not all, of the point guard minutes to Fox. He’s been remarkably competent (from a fantasy perspective) in the PG role this season averaging a 15/5/4 in 27 minutes a game. It’s tough to imagine him playing less than that with Hill out of the mix and it’s entirely likely he eclipses 30 without much on an effort. The way the sites are pricing backups these days (though to his credit, he’s been better than hill) Fox doesn’t come in as a punt. But in the new-look pricing we are seeing, I think trusting the minutes and the early season production puts him fully in play.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 30.13 DK - 30.69
He’s a stupid good price on DraftKings where it almost seems like a mistake the salary hasn’t corrected. After being relegated to the Kings’ tanking last season (combined with sharing the court with Boogie) he’s getting minutes in bunches as the Pacers’ one and working in a number of different ways to contribute to the stat line. This isn’t a great matchup against the Spurs, but they’ve looked defensively deficient at times this season (blown out by the Magic on Friday) and are clearly a different team without Kawhi. Collison’s averaging a 16/8/3 line to start the season which is putting him right at the value mark on FD and an even better play on DK. He’ll see a mix of Murray (the length could bother him) and Mills (not so much) but the minutes and usage are the story and I think we are still buying low on the new-look (though not good) Pacers.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.43 DK - 29.36
Harris checks all the boxes for an easy cash game inclusion this Sunday. His minutes are secure, he just paid 6x points per dollar on these prices, he's got the best match-up in the league against a team that plays both fast and terribly, and is coming off a good performance when he was highly owned throughout the industry. You can grab Harris happily here along with greater than 50% of the field and worry about wringing your hands at other positions instead.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.55 DK - 26.42
I can hear your groan through my computer screen, hypothetical reader. But bear with me for a second. I don't want to appeal to authority, but did you notice how Hardaway Jr. was a 53% start against Brooklyn, and how every single good DFS player ran him out there? It was no accident - the peripheral stats on THJ all point to him bouncing back to some kind of form sooner rather than later. There are the narrative factors as well, of course - the Knicks paid him a lot of money, they have no one else who can really shoot, and so on, but even on a simple statistical level Hardaway should be performing better than this. He's shooting 26% from the field - about 16% lower than his career averages - as well as 22% from deep. This just isn't how basketball players work. 26 year olds don't just forget to shoot. The Cavs aren't exactly a great match-up, but Hardaway Jr. is simply too cheap, and I'll be playing him every one of my 50/50 and double up lineups until this price goes to $5,000.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.15 DK - 38.39
Beal was ejected early in the Golden State game, but prior to that the Wiz seemed to be proudly displaying their plan to play him long, hard minutes whenever humanly possible. And he's been delivering! He's average 24/5/3 in games where he actually played his full allotment of minutes, and it looks for all the world like he's a heavy favorite to be out there for 37+ minutes in games that stay close. That's not a given in this one of course - the Kings have already announced that they plan to sit Z-Bo and George Hill - and this Wizards team could deliver them a pretty righteous beating here. Still, I'll happily grab him against the offense-first Buddy Hield.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 60.75 DK - 60.81
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 51.54 DK - 51.46
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 53.29 DK - 54.5
Well, this is admittedly sort of a cop-out, but if our projection system is clear on one thing for this slate it's this - there is an absolute pile of great value to be had by paying up at small forward today. Each of them has their respective pros and cons, and frankly it's very difficult for me to parse which is the best overall play. Giannis and Durant have been very consistent on their relative price points. LeBron has been running the point and looks like an incredible steal in games that don't go completely haywire. All three have reasonable match-ups, so how do you choose? Let's break it down. If you're looking for strict points per dollar safety, pick Giannis. The guy is a force of nature, and is following up on his campaign of being one of the superstars with the least volatile performances from game to game last year with a vengeance, scoring between 60 and 66 fantasy points in each of his games to start the season. If you can't afford Giannis, but still want safety, pick LeBron. I recognize that this sounds nuts, but there is simply no way the Cavs will get blown out in this game after last night's embarrassment against New Orleans. If you can't afford either, play Durant. He's the stud SF with the greatest blowout risk for my money, but I still think he represents a relatively safe option here. It's just that I like the other two guys that much more.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 19.11 DK - 20.41
How cheap is too cheap for Bojan "don't call me Bogdan" Bogdanovic? I recognize that he was bad against OKC, but the guy seems to be in line for a 30 minute rotation right now, and he handily paid 6.5x points per dollar in his first go around this season. He's not very exciting, and there are better punts out there today, but if you find yourself in the need of a little stars and scrubs action, he's fine filler so you can pay up elsewhere even in a lousy match-up with San Antonio.
Also considered: Wilson Chandler? He's cheap, the match-up is insanely great... and he's been absolutely God awful this season.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.22 DK - 32.49
Now here's a punt I can sink my teeth into. Skal isn't as cheap as he may have been yesteryear, but at $5,000 on FanDuel they are just begging you to play him here. With Z-Bo already ruled out, Labissiere should be in line for 30-34 minutes of playing time, and as a potentially solid contributor across 4 categories, he will be one of the highest owned players on a short slate today.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 36.68 DK - 36.63
We get Gordon on a discount after the Magic inexplicably blew out the Spurs, and I'm just loving it. It's obvious that both FanDuel and DraftKings have committed to moving prices quickly this season, and Gordon represents a new kind of value that we are going to have to get used to. His price seems improperly dinged after a lackluster fantasy point performance against San Antonio, but on a per-minute basis he was the same beast he's always been. The plan appears to be to play him 34-36 minutes per game in close contests, and given that he's scored better than 1.3 fantasy points per minute over the course of this young season, he just seems too cheap on these prices. Charlotte's been playing a faster pace this season, and since Dwight should have his hands full with Vuc, Gordon rates to have a less than stellar defender on him here. I think he's a very safe option with tremendous upside in a game that Vegas is projecting to be separated by fewer than 4 points.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 40.15 DK - 41.26
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 40.77 DK - 40.32
Two solid and similar options at the bigger money slots. Both Aldridge and Porzingis find themselves shouldering a much heavier offensive burden this season, the former due to injury, and the latter due to a mass exodus of NBA quality players from his team. Aldridge's shots per game have risen from 14.6 last season to 19.0 this season, and Porzingis' have jumped from 14.9 to 20.8. Both are playing more minutes, and their other stats have risen in lockstep as well. It's unsurprising then that both have provided a steady diet of 5x points per dollar in ways that look eminently sustainable - Aldridge even came close to paying this price when the Spurs were busy getting blown out by the Magic. Vegas sees Aldridge as the safer of the two if you are concerned about blowouts, but it's hard to ignore Porzingis' potential upside when he inevitably starts racking up defensive stats once again. I'm not sure I'll wind up sticking with either since the demands on salary are so great on a short slate, but I wouldn't be disappointed to see either name in my cash game lineups today.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 40.83 DK - 42.29
People keep hating on our Dwight picks, and he just keeps marching out there and putting up absurd rebounding totals. His rebounding tour de force continued against his former team in Houston, which marked his 5th straight 15+ rebound game to start the season. He's also had at least 1 block in every single game, and is averaging 2 blocks per game. This kind of consistent non-scoring production makes Dwight an incredibly high floor player, and we could see considerable upside in the game where the Hornets decide that he has a favorable offensive match-up as well. The Magic are up to the 4th fastest pace in the league this season, and have allowed a top 10 fantasy point total to opposing centers over the last couple seasons. I love Dwight as a great way to round out my cash games today.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.38 DK - 32.9
I do like Howard, but I wouldn't be disappointed to fill out my lineups with Gortat either. As I've mentioned a couple of times by now, the Wizards seem to be treating every game like a playoff game, and that means Gortat sees 34-36 minutes as long as the game is remotely close. While his match-up isn't as good as Howard's, the Kings have been in the bottom 3rd of the league against opposing centers over the last 2 seasons, and have been considerably worse since Boogie's departure. Cauley-Stein has some flash down low, but he still isn't much of a post defender, and without Z-Bo to bang bodies down low I could see Gortat putting together a quietly efficient 5-6x points per dollar here in the same ways that he did against Golden State and the Lakers in his last two games. I suppose there is a little blowout risk here, but not enough to worry about if you ask me.
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