Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - First Data 500

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First Data 500

Martinsville Speedway - Ridgeway, VA
Track - .526 Mile Oval
Laps - 500

Welcome back for another exciting week of daily fantasy NASCAR. If you thought the race at Talladega and Kansas were crazy, buckle up as the Round of 8 begins this weekend at Martinsville Speedway. Not only is the track know for a ton of contact and heated tempers, we will also have to deal with same day qualifying which is scheduled to take place just three hours before the start of the race. Due to this scheduling, pit stall assignments have already been set from the Kansas qualifying last week. The other wrinkle that will be tossed into play this week is Mother Nature herself. It will be something to monitor closely as Sunday approaches.

Forecast remains the same for @MartinsvilleSwy increasing threat of rain SAT PM, most at night, rain ending by SUN midday @RaceWeather pic.twitter.com/N6CsBalbCM

— Brian Neudorff (@NASCAR_WXMAN) October 27, 2017

 

From a fantasy perspective, laps led and fast laps(dominator points) are king at Martinsville as there will be 500 total laps in the race. Looking at the trends over the last six races here, there have been multiple drivers with 100+ laps led in four of the last five and at least four drivers with 20+ laps led in each of the last six races. Like last week, we cannot discount place differential either as there have been at least six drivers to pick up double-digit place differential points in all six of those races. The biggest key for this race is avoiding the wrecks. From NASCAR.com's stat guide, there were 11 accidents in the Spring race and 17% of laps have been run under caution in seven of the last nine races here.

With all that said, let's now take a look at some of the stats, trends, and pre-qualifying picks going into this weeks race.

Last Six Winners at Martinsville

• Brad Keselowski(started 4th, led 116 laps)
• Jimmie Johnson(started 3rd, led 92 laps)
• Kyle Busch(started 7th, led 352 laps)
• Jeff Gordon(started 5th, led 35 laps)
• Denny Hamlin(started 15th, led 91 laps)
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.(started 23rd, led 79 laps)

Top 5 Current & Career Track History at Martinsville

No driver has been more dominant here since the start of the 2015 season than Kyle Busch. He won the Spring race last year and has finished Top 5 in four straight races with a total of 629 laps led. The win was his only one here in his career but he has finished Top 5 in 12 of his 24 races. While not quite as dominant here lately, Brad Keselowski has matched Busch with four Top 5 finishes over the last three season and is the only other driver in the field with a sub 10 average finish. His win this Spring was also the first of his career but he has been very consistent with the fourth-best career average finish(12.9) among active drivers. Looking at the career track history list, no one has been better than Jimmie Johnson who picked up his ninth career win here at Martinsville in last year's playoff race and in 31 races has an incredible 7.6 average finish. While Denny Hamlin has struggled here lately finishing 30th or worse twice in his last three races, he has also been dominant here over the course of his career with five wins, 12 Top 5's and a 10.1 average finish. All four of the drivers I mentioned here are still battling for a championship as the Round of 8 starts on Sunday afternoon.

Top 5 Current Track Type History

There are five active drivers who have multiple short track wins since the start of the 2015 season but topping the list is none other than Jimmie Johnson who has extremely consistent with a 9.7 average finish. Right behind him is non-playoff contender Joey Logano who also has eight Top 5's and 13 Top 10 finishes with a 10.1 average finish. He could very well be the spoiler this week and makes a great GPP play at projected low ownership. If you are looking for a dominator this week, there is no better place to start than Kyle Busch. In three fewer races than most of the drivers in the field, he has accumulated 1,359 laps led on short tracks with two wins and a 12.3 average finish. He knows how to get out front and stay there and that is exactly what we are looking for in a 500 lap race.

Top 5 Current Form (last six races)

Going into the Round of 8, it comes as no surprise who tops the current form list. Martin Truex Jr. has absolutely dominated these playoffs with three wins and Top 5 finishes in all but one race. He has been dominant on the intermediate tracks with six of his seven wins in 2017 coming on that track type. That is great news for the #78 team as two of the four remaining races will be on mile and a half tracks including the championship race at Homestead. Two of the sports young guns(Chase Elliott & Ryan Blaney)have made it into the Round of 8 but it is Elliott who is having the better playoffs. Through the first six races, he has four Top 5's, led 218 laps, and sits with an impressive 6.2 average finish. Blaney, on the other hand, has just one Top 5(Kansas) and a 12.0 average finish. Brad Keselowski is the only other driver besides Truex and Kyle Busch to win a race in these playoffs and has been very consistent as well with an 8.2 average finish. Speaking of Kyle Busch, he leads all drivers in these playoffs with 440 laps led and has two wins which put him #2 in the standings behind Martin Truex Jr. 

Pre-Qualifying Targets

Kyle Busch($11,000)

Facing adversity last week, Kyle Busch and the #18 team did what they had to advance in the playoffs winning the first stage, finishing 5th in the second stage and coming in 10th. With his accumulation of playoff points throughout the season, he now sits second in the points standings as the Round of 8 begins this Sunday. He gets a fantastic opportunity to get a head start on the field as he has been dominant at Martinsville with four straight Top 5 finishes including a win in 2016 and 629 laps led in those races. He is my top driver this week regardless of qualifying position.

Brad Keselowski($9,600)

Not only does Keselowski have a value price this week in the mid $9K range, he is second to only Busch with an average of 61.1 DraftKings points per race on short tracks this season. He won his first career race here at Martinsville in the Spring and has finished Top 5 in three straight and four of the last five races with an 8.4 average finish. He sits third in the playoff standings behind Truex and Busch and another Top 5 finish would go a long way to getting him to the championship race at Homestead.

Ryan Newman($7,400)

Newman ranks #11 in my initial model this week and in the mid $7K range is my top value priced target but as with every week with the value plays, it will depend on qualifying. Newman returns to Martinsville where he has never won but has been consistent over his career and has finished Top 10 in three of his last four race here. If he qualifies anywhere out the Top 10, I would recommened him in cash games and if he qualifies outside the Top 20 this week, I would consider him in all formats.

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.