Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
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Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.31 DK - 38.49
Anthony Davis exited last game with a knee injury and is looking to be on the downside of questionable for this one. Make sure you do pay attention to news, because this is still up in the air. Assuming Davis misses, there are a lot of different ways to take advantage. He has the ball in his hands more than anyone else in that offense, so outside of Cousins, some guards will also benefit. Jrue Holiday is one. With Rajon Rondo already out for an extended period of time, Holiday has moved over to PG and has played very consistently. He's always been a PG, so it's no surprise. The absence of Davis would be huge for Holiday. he saw a 4% usage bump in 2016 with Davis out, but I suspect that'll jump even more here. he also sees a weak defense in the Kings with Fox and Hill at point. We don't have many high totals on tonight's slate, so jumping on injury opportunity will be big. Give Holiday a long hard look at a PG spot that could be much better.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.45 DK - 23.41
Dennis Schroder has already been ruled out for tonight's game, which makes things very easy in at least 1 spot. Malcolm Delaney saw 33 minutes last game and figures to see around the same here. He finished with just 19 fantasy points, which could keep the field away from him a little bit. I don't care at all. The Heat play slow and that was a case of a guy running into some bad luck. Delaney isn't as good at scoring as Schroder, but he's a better defender and distributor, along with floor communicator. Budenholzer has forced him into minutes since the start for those reasons. The match-up with the Bulls isn't phenomenal, but Jerian Grant is nothing to be scared of on an individual basis. Delaney should be very popular, but let's hope that below average game last time out takes a little luster away and we can get a top value play for under 50% with just 5 games on the dockett.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.39 DK - 44.22
I see both sides of this one. On one hand, Damian Lillard is the best PG on this slate and he has the most upside. On the other hand, Patrick Beverley is on the Clippers and he is one frustrating dude to roster anyone against. I do promise that if you roster Damian Lillard and watch this game, you will be not like Pat Bev. Opposed from being a pest, he's a top 3 perimeter defender in the NBA. Whether he can stay with Lillard for a whole game at this point is unknown, however. He's not the same Beverley he was 4 years ago, so we'll see how many minutes they stretch him out to after playing an absurd 42 in Utah. This game has the highest over/under on the slate and Lillard is the best player on the home favorite. Even against Beverley, Lillard is going to do damage here. You can pencil him in for 40 and know he has the chance to go for 70 in these types of games. When Lillard is hitting his shots, I don't care who is playing defense. We've all seen him put up 40 out of nowhere with shots that had no business of going in. That's called Damian Lillard in the Moda Center. He's not your safest point per $ play, but if you're looking for a stud at PG or exposure to LAC - POR, here it is.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 32.16 DK - 32.75
Looking back to the 2015-16 season, Middleton was a huge part of this offense. He was shooting as much as anyone and putting up close to 30 real-life points on most nights. I don't know if we get back to that consistently, but we're going to see a lot of big games out of Middleton. He's a natural scorer that is getting all the attention drawn away by Giannis Antetokounmpo. His price is still very fair on both sites and he saw 34 minutes last time out, which is good news for a guy who's been limited for a year and a half. Marcus Smart is also looking like he will be out, so that'll leave Terry Rozier on Middleton for the most part. I think this game well surpasses the 207 projected total and becomes a bit of a shootout. Middleton is pretty safe in this match-up as long as one team doesn't pull away. He doesn't have crazy 60 FP upside, but nobody at the position does.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 30.2 DK - 30.06
As I expected, Justin Holiday is stepping up as the playmaker of this offense. We touched on his brother Jrue earlier, who's a bit smaller and more experienced. Justin might be the better one in a couple years, though. He's already as good of a scorer, but lacks defense and a large basketball IQ. He is still young and being thrown into the fire, so those things will come with time. He sees a decent match-up against an Atlanta Hawks team with Kent Bazemore at SG. That should be a fun match-up to watch, as both are fiery and full-effort guys. Holiday has put up 25+ fantasy points in each game this year and will look to follow tonight. His price is asking for a bit more, so I do get the fade. There are a couple of spots to pay down at SG to save salary for later positions (You're going to want the salary). Let's take a look.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.51 DK - 25
Buddy Hield makes no sense. In a game that he sees just 16 minutes, he goes for a season-high 30 fantasy points. Whatever. That's what you call variance. I'm not worried about that 16 minutes at all, however, as 3 starts saw under 20 minutes. It looks like Dave Joerger just had a bone to pick with how some of them were playing. I expect the starters to go back to there regular playing time here, which should be around 28-32 for Hield. He's an awesome guy to own when on the court. He is always involved in transition and has no qualms on shooting 20 times. He's also establishing himself as a pretty solid rebounder and distributor, which wasn't expected out of Oklahoma U. Hield is still cheap on both sites and rightfully so. He should start getting it going tonight after dominating the Suns for just 16 minutes 2 nights ago, hopefully giving him an age boost. You will know how Hield is going to turn out by the end of the 1st quarter.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 59.01 DK - 58.83
I'm hoping you didn't expect to see Giannis left off here. Through 4 games, he's been over 60 fantasy points in each. He's a top 5 NBA player and probably top 2 for fantasy behind Westbrook. He now sees the same match-up he started the year with against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics like to play pretty fast and don't do a ton of defense. Giannis will obviously draw the best defender on the Celts and that will either be Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Neither will be able to cover him, though, and we saw that quite clearly on opening night, as he finished with 37 points and 13 rebounds. Expect the Celtics to struggle once again with Giannis, but possibly give him more attention / double teams. I think he ups the assists tonight to double-digits and gets there with rebounds as well against Al Horford. He's going to cost you a few arms and a 1/2 a leg, but it might just be worth it.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.65 DK - 31.9
I don't know why, but Danilo Gallinari always looks like such a great play. Even when in Denver, it was a tempting button to push on the rare occasion he was healthy. He's now moved or to L.A. and become a huge part of this Clippers offense. He's the 2nd scoring option behind Blake Griffin and has been consistent in the role. He put up over 30 fantasy points in both games he saw 30 minutes. Assuming he sees another 30+ against a high-scoring Blazers offense, value shouldn't be too tough to find. Gallo loves shooting and if the Blazers double Griffin like I expect, he'll be looking towards Gallinari. The Blazers have Maurice Harkless at SF, who is a fine defender, but not against a guy like this. He can stop the physical, back to the basket style. Not the pick and pop off-ball screen game. Gallinari is a relatively safe option at a position that doesn't offer much on the night.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 21.4 DK - 21.35
To be 100% clear, this is fully contingent on Anthony Davis sitting out. Cunningham saw a big boost last year when AD went out and got hurt. He can play both the 3 and 4, giving them versatility on defense. Holiday-Nelson-Clark-Cunningham-Cousins is a lineup I think we see a lot of and the one that's in down the stretch. It matches up well with the Clippers and has been the most effective (1.46 pts/poss.) with Anthony Davis off the court. Cunningham should see at least 25 minutes with the upside for 35 if he's making things click and making a difference on defense. He's the farthest thing from safe because he can do nothing in 30 minutes, but at this price, that's fine. That "nothing" will still get him to value. If he has one of his weird game where he hits 4 3's and takes over AD's rebounding, he could be a must in a tournament. I'll have exposure, but it won't be fun.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 47.82 DK - 50.09
I'm really hoping Anthony Davis sits this one out, because it clears up the slate quite a bit. If he does play, it will tornado the slate and change where a lot of the value is coming from. As of now, Griffin is the easy choice at PF. Facing a Portland team with no PF, he should have some fun. Aminu will cover Griffin for most of the night, but that won't work. He's way too small and Griffin will just bully him like he does guys even bigger. Griffin has been between 40-50 in each game and I think this is the one where he eclipses 50. This is solidified as his offense and the ball runs through him on almost every possesion. I'm not sure if everyone realizes that he is an elite superstar and I think he finishes this season with a top 7 fantasy year. I expect the Blazers to send a lot of help Aminu' way, which will just allow Griffin to share the ball and stuff the stat sheet even more. This game does have the highest over/under on the board at 212, so we have to get exposure to the big guns. Griffin sets up perfectly against this team and I'll have as close to 100% of him as I possibly can.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 28.16 DK - 28.88
Hey power forward, you suck. Zach Randolph isn't some type of hidden gem or anything, but he's way too cheap. He was one of the 3 starters to see under 20 minutes against the Suns and we can expect that to bounce back to normal. He put up 25 and 26 fantasy points in the other 2 games. He now sees a very solid match-up against a Pelicans team that is presumably without their PF in Anthony Davis. Matching up with Dante Cunningham would be ideal for Z-Bo and away for him to get to value quickly. He needs just 20-25 for value, so the odds of him exceeding that are very high. He's still a really good post scorer and and an even better rebounder. He could be a big mismatch problem for a short Pelicans team. If AD ends up playing, find a pivot away from this game.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 58.76 DK - 60.85
Yippee, this should be fun. With a few guys to pay up for in great spots, this is not going to be an easy slate. However, if Davis does sit, you almost have to play DeMarcus Cousins. He's hgher on my board than Giannis tonight and the one guy I will make sure I have in every cash game. The Kings will send Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos at Cousins, which won't work in the slightest. He's also facing off with the Kings, who he hates with 1000 fires. I'm not always on board with revenge games, but DeMarcus Cousins would like to punch half of the people on the Kings (if not more) right in the face. As long as he doesn't get ejected, Cousins will play lose to 40 minutes and touch the ball on 90% of possessions. He is my top play of the entire night and I really don't care if he sees high ownership. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cousins walk away with 80 FP tonight. It's not what I'm expecting, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least bit.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.33 DK - 41.2
If you're forced to get away from Cousins, DeAndre Jordan is there for a safe 35-40 fantasy points. A double-double machine, Jordan has been over 40 fantasy points in both games that he saw big minutes this year. HE will certainly see them tonight against a very able-bodied Jusuf Nurkic. Nurkic is a really good center and one that will try to pull Jordan from the basket. That should allow Jordan to hit his 10 rebounds sometime through the 1st half. The points won't be as easy, but the Blazer did allow the 2nd most 2nd chance points in 2016, so there's that working for him. This entire game needs to be noticed as it holds the highest total on the board with just a -2 POR spread. It should remain close throughout and give each and every starter a solid shot at value. With just 5 games on the slate, this is a very important position to nail. In 100% transparency, I don't think I'll have 1 share of Jordan tonight. That's only because Cousins is in 100%, though.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.55 DK - 29.65
If you need to go even cheaper, go with the only guy who might be able to battle with Boogie Cousins. He doesn't have much of a chance stopping his scoring, but WCS is an elite rebounder that can put up FP in a hurry. He doesn't play big minutes because he can't yet, but he'll be out there for a guaranteed 28-32. He will get over 25 fantasy points and give you the upside for 40. He's still sitting at just $5600 as well, which should change in the very near future. Like Jordan and Cousins, he's easily the top play on this slate in the price range. I just don't know if he will do enough to balance out a big Cousins game. I may actually get some exposure to WCS as a UTIL player, but I don't plan on anyone else besides Cousins at center until we hear news on AD. Good luck tonight!!
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View Comments
nice.
Seriously though, it might sound dumb, but just you saying “good luck tonight” just like made you sound much more human and improved the whole article. Def. keep sounding like you’ve got our best interests in mind. A lot harder to knock someone that’s trying. I do think that you normally do a good job with this too, Austyn btw. :)
Also, I’m drunk lololol. No it’s not too early you asshole, I’m in college and I bet up to 5$ at the most so fuck off. Jk it’s fine. All in good fun my man. Also, this isn’t my real name. It’d be weird af if someone I knew saw it at this point, but that is a story for a different day my friend. Anyways, keep up the good work dawg. I need more friends that do this shit. I got one that will listen, but she (yeah she) doesn’t actually know shit herself, so us know, this is cool. My names logan by the way, but normally I’ll be going by Charles. It’s just something I made up. I trust you’ll get a notification or some shit on your article and read this. Well I’m rambling obvy, so see ya man. Peace. I just thought of this, I should use my real name cuz if someone saw it, they could talk to me about this shit. That’d be cool. I think nba dfs is dope af man. Even cooler than football. Idk maybe I think I’ll comment weird shit idk. Peace homes.
I appreciate it. Hope you're still breathing over there.
Ooooohhh if this is all for nothing I’ll be pissed. Send something back plz. Thanks. Nice article by the way. I like how you’re not afraid to give yo own damn opinion. It’s dizzope dawg. This should be all. Thank you lol it something like that
Revenge matters again - Boogie dominated - get over it DFSR and admit you are wrong on the concept. I know you won't - we get it - we'll just keep calling you out like last night and tonight again.
Revenge certainly matters in some spots and nobody has ever denied that. Boogie against SAC for the first time, obviously. It would take a mad man to think different. That's why I mentioned it. You just have to realize Anthony Davis was out and he saw the highest usage of the last 2 seasons. It was also a good match-up, barring the name on the jersey. It wasn't just because he played Sacramento. It played a part, but a smaller one than AD being injured. That's for sure.