James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 51.97 DK - 53.97
Welcome to another solid slate of NBA DFS. We have 10 games on the docket with 6 of them holding a 210+ over/under. With so many games expected to be high-scoring, it's important who you end up with at point guard. It's a premier position that you typically need value out of to cash. John Wall had an average game last time out against the Suns with 45 fantasy points on 19 points and 12 assists. He now enters an elite match-up with the Los Angeles Lakers. Lonzo Ball has looked like a pretty average defender and he hasn't seen anyone of John Wall's caliber. The Lakers have a non-existent interior on defense and Wall should be able to penetrate without worry. Wall is the same exact PG this year as he was last and just has more chemistry with the backcourt mate Bradley Beal. This game is also going to be a focal point of the slate, as it's 231 projected total is the highest on the board. Wall is the best player in the game and if it stays close, we could see a classic John Wall outing.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 22.55 DK - 22.25
Goran Dragic was just randomly listed as questionable, so you have to think things may be trending in the wrong direction. If he happens to miss, Tyler Johnson will see 35+ minutes and have the ball in his hands a ton. Remember, the Heat have invested $50 million dollars into Tyler Johnson. He's a big part of the team and who they plan on building into. Spoelstra is comfortable playing him a lot and trusts him to run the offense when Dragic is out. The match-up with the Spurs isn't phenomenal, but they are a lot worse against PG 's than SG or SF. We also have Dion Waiters questionable, so Johnson could be in for some HUGE minutes, along with Josh Ricardson and Wayne Ellington in the backcourt. Johnson is the most talented of the bunch and the guy who coaches have the most trust in. If both guys are out, Johnson becomes close to a must-play in cash with the certainty of minutes and usage being incredibly high. If both Dragic and Waiters find a way to play this game, you can look towards Mike James as a solid punt PG with some upside in a completely different game.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 53.13 DK - 56.09
I know, you weren't expecting Russell Westbrook as the 3rd option. He's not our favorite cash game play at point guard, but can't leave him unmentioned against a fast-paced Pacers squad who doesn't love defense in general. Westbrook is still doing the damage he was doing last year, but it's just been a bit controlled. If you throw out the game against the Jazz, he has 53 fantasy points in each contest. It's forced his price down to $10,8K on FD and $11.4K on DK. I'm willing to bet Westbrook averages over 53 FP per game this year and won't be under $11k for long. The Pacers played at the 2nd fastest speed in 2016 and haven't slowed down one bit so far this season. Darren Collison is a good defender on most guys, but he has no chance to contain Westbrook. We do prefer John Wall when it comes to FP/min, but there's no doubting the type of upside that Westbrook brings to the table against a team who likes to run.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 52.99 DK - 55.88
We like James Harden over Russell Westbrook. With this Rockets - 76ers bout sitting at a 222 over/under and an HOU -3 spread, it's expected to stay close and be very high-scoring. Harden is actually in a similar boat to Westbrook, as he hasn't eclipsed 50 fantasy points in a single contest yet. We know that will change in the near future and he will be putting up 50 on a nightly basis. He is also still more expensive than Westbrook, so the ownership could fall for that. This match-up with the 76ers is exactly what Harden may need to get back going. It'll be a combo of J.J. Redick and TLC on Harden, and neither have a chance. Redick had Harden's number for a while in LA, but Harden dominated him the last few times. He'll come into this game with something to prove and not a lot in his way of proving it. Joel Embiid is a monster down low, but he's not a real interior presence to be worried about. He's more of a raw athletic guy who will get crazy blocks and shots, but he has a long way to go with fundamentals and a guy like Harden will take advantage of that. If this game remains close, I don't see any way around Harden getting to value. His shots will start falling sooner than later and when they do, look for 65-l7 fantasy points. That could easily be tonight.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.21 DK - 28.96
It looks like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is returning for the Hornets tonight, but Nicolas Batum will remain out. That should still give Jeremy Lamb around 32 minutes at Sg and 4 or 5 at SF. He's been playing well and has started getting consistent minutes. He has 25 FP in each of his last 2 games and simply played bad. Jeremy Lab is a really good player and he can put up points in a hurry when in his grove. For example, he got 18 rebounds in 1 game last year. The Hornets were missing a big man and he took over. A bad NBA player cannot do that. He now sees a solid match-up with the fast Nuggets. He'll be covered by Will Barton and Gary Harris, who are both average defenders. The Nuggets gave up 1.25 FP/min to SG's in 2016 and I don't see any improvement on this campaign. Lamb is still in that sweet spot at $5600 on both sites, giving him credence in both cash and tourneys. Don't ignore Lamb because he hasn't gone off yet. His floor is around 23 with a ceiling well over 40.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.07 DK - 23.51
Avery Bradley was a defensive stopper in Boston that would play close to 40 minutes on most nights. Now, it looks like he's lucky to get 35. We know Stan Van Gundy is a terrible coach and while some will defend him, they are not smart people. He has been losing different members of this team over the last 3 years and the only consistency has been Andre Drumond making no progress in his career. I'd expect an "elite" coach like Van Gundy to at least help his star player get A LITTLE better. Sorry for the rant, but here's why it matters. If you think Van Gundy will ride with Bradley for 35 or more minutes, you lock him in. Personally, I'm going to bet on it. Facing a T-Wolves team with elite wings, Bradley will need to be out there for defense. It's not a question of whether or not he will play up to par. It's a question of whether he'll be on the floor for enough minutes. The low $5k price tag is pitiful for a guy that was around $7-8K all of 2016. Because of the uncertainty, there's risk. I may take that risk in all formats, but it's not unforeseen. Cmon, Van Gundy, get your best defender in the game. PLEASE.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 52.43 DK - 52.89
It could have been LeBron here, but he played 37 minutes last night and should blow out the Nets. I don't think LeBron plays very much at all in blowouts this year. He's 1 year older and knows that he will need to be 100% healthy in the playoffs to have any chance. That moves us to Kevin Durant, who is still a god on the basketball court. He hasn't gone for any huge 60+ FP games this year, but he doesn't often have to with the other weapons on the Warriors. He does typically sit around 50-55 and will almost never drop before 45. He sees a Raptors team that lost DeMarre Carroll at the 3 and has replaced him with Norman Powell, who is a true shooting guard. He's too small for Durant and so is whoever else they try to throw at him off the bench. Durant is going to be the force to be reckoned with on the Warriors team tonight. We still don't have any numbers from Vegas on this game, but I'd expect an over/under between 215 and 225. It should stay rather close, as the Raptors do have the weapons to stay close. They'll also have solid defenders on Curry and Thompson, which could funnel some of the perimeter play to Durant. He's an elite cash game and tournament play, but we do still prefer Harden as the top guy on the board.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.32 DK - 28.51
I really wish Brandon Ingram wasn't on the Lakers. He has the ability to be a consistent SF who sees 33-38 minutes per night. He's extremely talented, but it's tough to find a groove when you're given the reigns one night and play 22 minutes the next. He should see at least 30 against a Wizards team that fits exactly to his style of play. Ingram excels in the open court and Washington allowed the 3rd most fastbreak points in 2016. Kelly Oubre Jr. and Otto Porter both play the 3 and will take turns on Ingram. They're both pretty good man-to-man defenders, but they give up so many FP's because of the crazy pace the Wiz play at. The Lakers match them and it's why the 231 total is the highest on the entire slate. Ingram is cheap enough on both sites to play in cash games and tournaments. This game is going to have a boatload of points and Ingram should be a big part of the Lakers offense. Small forward is also pretty weak after the elite options, so Ingram is also your default value choice.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 41.22 DK - 42.9
As someone who has been paying attention to Ben Simmons since his freshman year in high school, this is awesome. I was interested to see how his style of play would convert to the big leagues, but it looks like he has a special place in the NBA. This is a guy who could legitimately be the best player in basketball in 3 or 4 years. Maybe that sounds crazy with guys like Giannis, AD, and Kawhi being so young and proven, but Simmons just has an ora about him like no other. He is a floor general that demands respect from anywhere. The one part of his game that he has to work on is the deep jumper. He's never had to shoot because he hasn't been slowed down since he played with his dad in the driveway. As he gets pushed out of the paint, Simmons will develop a fine jump shot. You can put that in the books. As for tonight, he sees a very interesting match-up with the Rockets, who love running and gunning. We have the 2nd highest projected total on the slate and a great -3 line. It's expected to stay close and if that's the case, I think the 76ers starters see some extended run. They have been playing well so far and a statement against the Rockets would be very interesting. We do have a 76ers team that is finally trying to win, which is fun to watch in the first place. Simmons is always risky as a rookie, but if this game stays close, he has a 45 point floor with an unknown ceiling.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.75 DK - 35.02
I could have touched on a couple guys at each position from this Lakers-Wizards game but decided to stick to my favorites. Otto Porter has moved over the 4 this year for the Wizards and he's handled it quite well. Through 3 starts, he's put up fantasy point totals of 31, 57, and 47. He is priced correctly on FanDuel, but DraftKings is still behind, so plug him in everywhere over there. The Lakers have about a million PF's, so Porter will see a combo of Randle, Kuzma, Nance, and Ingram. Nance is probably the best defender, but he'll still struggle with Porter on the perimeter. Porter is the 3rd option on offense behind Wall and Beal. He sees close to 15 shots in most games and is a near lock for value in cash games (DK). Power forward is deep like normal on this slate and Porter is a guy you can plug in and not worry about. Let's take a look at a couple of guys who have to be in play because of simple opportunity.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 33.47 DK - 33.69
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.39 DK - 26.89
Blah. That's how I feel about these guys against the Spurs. Still, I'll be playing lots of them. They face off against a Spurs team that will force the Heat to go big. You can play James Johnson at the 5 with Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge on the floor. Olynyk will have to take more minutes at the 5 and Johnson will fit into the PF role. They are both taking over for the injured Hassan Whiteside, who has been announced out for at least 1 more game. Johnson and Olynyk have both seen just under 30 minutes in each game and have put up cash game value. I think one of them sees some extended run against a tall Spurs frontcourt. I lean towards it being Olynyk, but Johnson has shown out in unpredictable spots before. he stuffs the stat sheet and there's never a worry about effort when he's on the floor. All in all, these guys are facing a slow Spurs team and are already slow by themselves. I'm not overly excited about 195 total, but these are two guys who will simply exceed value on most nights.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 43.03 DK - 42.53
Gobert has been pretty average this year, which will hopefully keep the masses off of him. He's still the same exact guy he was last year and the 20/20 games will still be there. He sees a great match-up with a Suns squad that loves to run and gun. I know that doesn't help most centers, but Gobert is fine in transition and a number of peripherals up for grab against the Suns is nuts. Especially without Eric Bledsoe controlling the offense at PG. Look for Gobert to have a balanced game with some defensive stats to back up his 40 combined points/rebounds. Tyson Chandler and Alex Len will try their hands at slowing Gobert down, but I'm not sure we need to talk about how that will go. Neither of them are legitimate threats. Gobert is going to rebound at will and hopefully incorporated into the offense a bit more than he has been. Utah knows they ride the back of Rudy Gobert, so look for them to make sure he gets his. Center has a lot of different ways to go tonight, but Gobert could end up being the nuts. He should also be under 20% owned. Yes, please.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 46.02 DK - 47.97
If Rudy Gobert isn't your cup of tea for whatever reason, Nikola Jokic is a VERY nice pivot at a similar price. He, like Gobert, is a guy I'm fully comfortable within cash games and tournaments. After Jokic took some flack for going scoreless against the Kings, he returned with 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists against the Wizards. He now faces a Charlotte Hornets team that was 2nd worst to centers in 2016. Dwight Howard used to be a solid defender, but he's more into rebounding and shot blocking than shutting his guy down. He'll also have some trouble with Jokic on the perimeter, where he excels. Drawing Howard out of the paint should do wonders, giving Jokic and other free passing lanes. This isn't one of the higher scoring games on the night, but Jokic is extremely safe and has 75 point upside as always.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.25 DK - 42.21
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 19.9 DK - 19.16
We haven't touched on any of the Cavs just yet, but they're certainly in play. LeBron James is a prime GPP play against a fast-paced Nets team but could sit if it turns into a blowout. The same can be said for these two guys. However, with Tristan Thompson getting the start, he should see a minimum of 25 minutes against a Nets team that hands out peripherals like no other. As for Kevin Love, I like him in tournaments. If this game does stay close, he's in the type of spot where he can score 20 and rebound 20. The Nets have absolutely no interior presence and toss out Timofey Mozgov as their excuse of a C. Love will take advantage when on the court, but we have no idea if he sees 24 or 38. If this game finds a way t stay close, it could turn into a fantasy gold mine. If it's a blowout like Vegas expects, we'll likely see a guy like Shumpert or Crowder hit value in extended minutes.
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View Comments
Any worry this early in the season the Cavs sit LeBron/Love being it's a back to back?
I'm not complaining first of all, bc this is free!! But I always play at least 1 team using this site and i haven't been in the money yet, maybe im just unlucky. Is anybody else struggling as bad as I am?
It's like this every year early on. Give it a month once the models have larger sets of data on playing rotations, minutes, rookies, how players have changed due to new teams or aging, etc, and you'll see less gut speculation and more data based insights. Also you'll see a lot more injuries and players resting that get covered in the update column, giving you more cheap guys that go off. Once you've got those things going, the insights here are a lot more transformable into payouts.
All the data in the world doesn’t explain why they keep recommending garbage like George Hill. A shitty player can have all the opportunity in the world, still a shitty player. Advice : outside of their “obvious” picks like harden, Durant, etc, choose the opposite of their value plays as they never pan out. Yes I understand it’s a free advice article, but trust me I’ve used their optimizer and it’s not much better. Don’t get suckered folks
I think Tim has a personal issue with George Hill. Are you the same guy who was complaining about the G Hill picks last year? This daily column is an advertisement. It is here to sell the projection system. The better the advice the better the system sells. This is why there are so many top tier picks and recurring picks(guaranteed to be correct sometimes). I have no idea how to take the opposite of a value pick. That needs it's own column. Take the advice or don't take it. There are days I cuss DFSR and days I love em. We all come here because we are looking for an edge.
No Embiid? He is playing 28 minutes a game and the Rockets have one healthy center. I think he is going to have a huge game.
Austyn - great must play with Anthony Davis last night. And don't give us the "he got hurt" excuse - he gets hurt every other game. That's why he is called the glass brow - not worth paying that much for someone that fragile - just bad advice especially for cash games.
Dude its all luck.. Sure these dfs sites help but they know as much as you do..
Why isn't Oladipo listed? It's a revenge game tonight against OKC so look for big things out of him. Wait, I forgot revenge games are a MYTH right DFSR.
Do your own research and trust your gut feelings. Come to this site to compare how you feel with others suggestions. Also understand that these people are playing lineups too...so they're not gonna give up that deep down and dirty pick thats gonna put you over top...but for the most part you gotta have a little luck with the couple of value picks. Its easy to pick Lebron, Durant, Westbrook, etc, but then what....
I don't understand the emphasis still being put on total points by this site. If Daily Fantasy was only offense then I get it but Defensive stats are huge. Most of the top players fantasy wise are not from just the high point games... it's a really even mix across games. Seems like an attempt to mislead or the author is not very bright.