Jon Rahm watches his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Quicken Loans National PGA golf tournament, Sunday, June 26, 2016, in Bethesda, Md. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet and Season-Long Trends Sheet at absolutely no cost.
Welcome back golf fans. I hope you are enjoying the start of the new PGA Tour season and if you have paid close enough attention you might notice it has a similar feel as a year ago as the first three tournament winners(Brendan Steele, Pat Perez, Justin Thomas) were all winners in the fall portion of the 2016-17 season. The players now travel to Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai, China for the seasons first WGC event, the HSBC Champions. Hideki Matsuyama returns as the defending champion in a stacked 78-player field that includes five of the Top 10 and 33 of the Top 50 players in the world.
The course is designed in a forest-like setting with a ton of trees combined with elevation changes, rolling landscape and water hazards that are present on 11 of the 18 holes. Over the past four years, we have seen a mix of long hitters and accuracy players succeed here and it has to do with the varying hole lengths and options off the tee. There will be a handful of holes where players can choose to go less-than-driver off the tee to get a better position for their approach shots and for those pulling out driver, they will need to be somewhat accurate with all the hazards present which will greatly reduce their chances of hitting a green in regulation. Speaking of approach shots, I will be looking closer at Proximity this week with the rolling multi-tiered greens. The winning score over the past four years has exceeded -20 three times which elevates the importance of Birdie or Better % which correlates very closely to Draftkings scoring. I will also be splitting Par 4 and 5 scoring as the players who have had the most success here have done well on both(Ross Fisher, Marc Leishman, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Henrik Stenson). Below is a look at the Strokes Gained leaders on both Par 4's and Par 5's over the last 24 rounds at Sheshan International GC via Fantasy National Golf Club.
With all that said, let's jump in and take a look at some of the top picks for this week.
Sheshan International Golf Club - Shanghai, CHN
Par 72 - 7,266 Yards
**Click to view a Course Preview from PGATour.com**
Daniel Berger
World Golf Ranking (#27)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($8,200)
Both players topping the course history list this week come to us in the mid $8K range on DraftKings and it starts with Daniel Berger. He has played here twice and finished T11 in 2016 and followed that up with a T2 last year. In those tournaments, he has shot under par in every round and posted a score under 70 in six of those eight rounds. As you can see with the Fantasy National graphic above, he has led the field in Strokes Gained on Par 4's in that time and ranked 12th on the Par 5's. The only risk here is that the form isn't great as he started the year off with a T54 in last weeks CJ Cup and finished last season with no Top 10 finishes in his final seven events. This takes him out of cash game consideration for me but he comes with a ton of upside for GPP's.
Ross Fisher
World Golf Ranking (#33)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($7,200)
Fisher returns to Sheshan International with excellent course history having finished 3rd and 6th in his two trips while shooting under 70 in all eight rounds. He leads all golfers during that time in Strokes Gained on Par 5's and sits fourth in Strokes Gained on Par 4's. While form is an issue with Berger, you don't have to worry with Fisher as he is coming off back to back runner-ups on the European Tour while shooting -20 or better both times. Combine both of these factors and it makes perfect sense why he sits #1 in tags on FanShare Sports early in the week. He makes an excellent core play in cash games but to separate yourself in GPP's it may be worth fading him this week as I am thinking he will be 30% or more owned. If you do decide to use him in tournaments, make sure to have more exposure than the field. For example, if you are entering 10 lineups you are going to want him in at least four.
Jon Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($9,300)
Rahm missed the cut at Sergio Garcia's tournament last week but looked good at the Italian Open the week before where he finished T15 shooting sub 70 in all four rounds. He will now be making his PGA Tour season debut after closing out the 2016-17 season with four straight Top 10 finishes that included the TOUR Championship. The #5 player in the world also sits 3rd on my sheet when looking at DraftKings points per tournament(88.5) over his last five PGA Tour events and while he is making his first start here at the WGC-HSBC Champions, he has the game to get it done and win this week. He ranks 2nd on my sheet when looking at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, and 4th in Birdie or Better %. He is also likely to be the lowest owned of the top tier players($10K+) as he currently sits with the lowest amount of tags on FanShare Sports.
Pat Perez
World Golf Ranking (#18)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($7,800)
We can't discuss current form without mentioning Pat Perez this week. He closed the 2016-17 season with an excellent playoff run that included a T6 at the Dell Technologies Championship, a T12 at the BMW, and a 16th place finish at the TOUR Championship. He carried that form into the new season and won the CIMB Classic two weeks ago with four excellent rounds of golf(66/65/64/69) and then followed it up with a T5 in last weeks CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges. He leads all players in the field when looking at DraftKings points per tournament over the last five and will now be making his first trip to the WGC HSBC Champions event. Nothing really stands out statistically from a Strokes gained perspective but I really like is that he ranks 9th in the field in Proximity which is highlighted by a rank of 4th and 2nd in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards. His price is getting a little high for me on DraftKings to use in cash games but seeing as he has just two tags thus far on FanShare, I will have a ton of exposure in tournaments.
Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($11,700)
FanDuel ($10,200)
The #1 player in the world is coming off another tremendous season that included four wins and eight Top 10's despite an injury that sidelined him for over a month in the spring. He tops my overall model this week and is one of just three players in the field to rank Top 10 in all four categories on my cheatsheet that is led by his #1 rank in the stats model. He isn't just a bomber as he also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and sits 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach giving him an elite all-around game. He also ranks 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 7th in BoB%, and 9th in Scrambling. DJ also won this event back in 2013 and has five WGC wins on his resume and is the only player to win all four in his career. I don't think you need to spend up this high in cash games but he provides more upside than anyone in the field and makes a terrific GPP play this week.
Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#44)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($8,000)
Despite having no course history here, Finau shows up as the #11 golfer in my model this week and it has a ton to do with his statistical profile. Much like DJ, he has the distance off the tee but is also highly ranked(3rd) in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee as well. Finau also ranks Top 5 in both Par 4 and 5 Scoring, 6th in Birdie or Better %, ad 12th in Proximity. Put it all together and he ranks 4th in my stats model this week but what really stands out to me is the price as it has dropped over $2,500 from last week. He is a great play in all formats.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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