Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy football. As we always do, let's take a look back and see how I did with my stack recommendations from last week.
It started with rookie sensation Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. Gameflow did not dictate a lot of throwing as Kevin Hogan was a massive disappointment on the other side of the ball but Watson was still able to get his points by throwing three touchdowns despite being limited to 29 attempts and 225 yards. The lack of yardage hurt both DeAndre Hopkins(2 of 4 for 19 yards) and Will Fuller(2 of 5 for 62) but both ended up catching a touchdown pass from Watson to salvage the stack.
Things got worse as my Charger stacks flopped in a big way as they played a very low scoring defensive battle with the Raiders last Sunday. Rivers was not bad, by any means, completing 25 of 36 passes for 268 yards and no interceptions but only threw for one touchdown on the day. He ended up targeting Keenan Allen nine times but unfortunately, he only caught five of those targets for 45 yards. It was sophomore tight end Hunter Henry having the biggest day catching five of his seven targets for 90 yards and due to the tight coverage to receivers, running back Melvin Gordon caught nine of a game-high 12 targets for 67 yards and Rivers' lone touchdown.
Speaking of low-scoring games, my contrarian stack of the Steelers was also a flop last week. The lesson to learn here is that just because you like a wide receiver a ton on any given week it does not necessarily mean you need to stack him with the quarterback. This game was a perfect example as Antonio Brown went off once again catching eight of his 10 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown paying off his high price tag. Those yards made up over 50% of Big Ben's total(19/25 for 252) and was his only touchdown pass. The optimal stack in this game was pairing Brown and Le'Veon Bell who rushed 32 times for 179 yards and a touchdown. The combination fo the two was very expensive but would have made a nice separation in tournaments. Lesson learned.
With all that we have learned from last, let's step into the top stacks for week 7 in the NFL.
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Quarterback - Matt Ryan
Primary Target - Julio Jones
We had to wait 259 days but week 7 of the NFL season brings us the rematch of the wild and crazy Super Bowl 51 where the Patriots made a heroic late-game comeback to take home their fifth championship. This game is not on the main slate on DraftKings which sucks as it carries the highest total of the week(56) by a long shot and this is where playing both sites can be a big benefit. Both defenses have been suspect this season with the Falcons ranking 29th in DVOA defense vs. the run while the Patriots rank 30th in DVOA defense vs. the pass. This has me leaning Matt Ryan and the Falcons from a stacking perspective despite the fact Ryan has not thrown for 300+ yards since week one. He won't get a better matchup to rebound than this week as the Patriots have allowed 300 or more yards to every quarterback they have faced this season and are one of just two teams to allow more than 300 yards passing per game. For Ryan to have a big game, he will most definitely need his top wideout, Julio Jones, to also rebound as he comes into Week 7 with just one 100+ yard receiving game and one double-digit target game. Coach Dan Quinn has made it clear that he has not been happy with Julio's target share this season so you can fully expect that to change, especially in a matchup vs. the team that broke their hearts eight months ago. The cost of this stack is very high but that should only help keep the ownership down on FanDuel and there are plenty of value plays at other positions to make it happen.
DFSR’s Doug Norrie and James Davis take the NFL podcast breaking down every game for Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Quarterback - Carson Palmer
Primary Target - Larry Fitzgerald
This stack has shown much more upside than the Ryan/Julio combo this season which just seems crazy to say but for this week it presents a little more risk for a couple reasons. First of all, with the trade and emergence of Adrian Peterson in the Cardinals lineup Palmer seen his pass attempts drop dramatically although he did complete just over 80% of them last week while targeting Fitz 11 times. Palmer and Fitz have been one of the top stacking options all season with Fitz receiving double-digit targets in four of his six games with two 100+ yard efforts and has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. The other risky part of this stack in Week 7 is the fact the Rams rank 6th in DVOA defense vs. the pass and have allowed just 210 yards per game through the air(20th) but the pair gives us a nice discount that allows us to build a much more balanced lineup and we already know the upside.
Quarterback - Marcus Mariota
Primary Target - Eric Decker
After sitting out in Week 5 with a hamstring injury, Marcus Mariota returned to Titans last week and put up his first 300+ yard game of the season vs. the Colts on Monday Night Football. Going into this week, he has practiced in full with a clean bill of health which only adds to his upside as he will likely be using his legs a little more. He also gets an elite matchup vs. the Browns who rank dead last in DVOA defense vs. the pass and 29th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the quarterback. My top target to pair with Mariota is Eric Decker this week as he is not only $1,200 cheaper on DraftKings, but has seen his targets increase in each of the last three weeks. He was very productive on Monday Night Football catching seven of his nine targets for a season-high 88 yards. I also prefer the cheaper option as the Browns have been fairly tough on wideouts ranking 14th in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. At that price, on DraftKings especially, we don't need much out of him and with Delanie Walker missing practice Friday and questionable to play on Sunday he should also see a healthy target share once again. If Walker does end up playing, he makes an excellent low-owned tight end option as the Browns rank dead last in DraftKings points per game allowed to the position.
Also Consider: Andy Dalton/A.J. Green(CIN) and Dak Prescott/Dez Bryant(DAL)
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