Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - Hollywood Casino 400

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Hollywood Casino 400

Kansas Speedway - Kansas City, KS
Track - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Oval Intermediate

Welcome back to the second elimination race of the 2017 Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs. Last week's Talladega race shook up the points standings in a big way as eight of the 12 remaining drivers(McMurray, Stenhouse, Johnson, Busch, Harvick, Truex, Blaney, Elliot) ended up in a wreck which left just 12 drivers on the final restart. It was Brad Keselowski who ended up crossing the finish line first and locking his way into the Round of 8 with Martin Truex Jr. who won the opening race of this round. That leaves 10 drivers fighting for the remaining six transfer spots and the standings look like this:

• Kyle Larson(3096)
• Kevin Harvick(3089)
• Denny Hamlin(3088)
• Chase Elliott(3087)
• Ryan Blaney(3076)
• Jimmie Johnson(3074)

CUTLINE

• Kyle Busch(3067)
• Matt Kenseth(3066)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(3052)
• Jamie McMurray(3045)

As you can see that leaves Jimmie Johnson just seven points to the good over Kyle Busch and eight points over Matt Kenseth. If you watched the post-race interviews last week, Kyle Busch did not look worried at all as he knows that the #18 team has an excellent mile and a half package this season. In year's past drivers with multiple bad races in the playoffs would be practically done for the season barring a win but with the new stage points this season, a solid Top 5 with points in both stages should easily get Kyle or others into the next round.

For fantasy, we will be getting back to common strategy and targeting dominators, especially with the importance of running up front in all stages to get those points. Over the last six races here at Kansas, there has been one driver to lead at least 100 laps in five of those races and at least three drivers to lead 50+ laps in back to back races here. Qualifying will be the determining factor on the importance of place differential and this was the case in the Spring race here as 11 drivers picked up double-digit PD points.

With all that said, let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.

Last Six Winners at

• Martin Truex Jr.(started 3rd, led 104 laps)
• Kevin Harvick(started 11th, led 74 laps)
• Kyle Busch(started 6th, led 69 laps)
• Joey Logano(started 14th, led 42 laps)
• Jimmie Johnson(started 19th, led 10 laps)
• Joey Logano(started 4th, led 122 laps)

Top 5 Current & Career Track History at

After starting out his career with just two Top 10 finishes in his first 15 races here at Kansas, Kyle Busch has figured this track out and has five straight Top 5's here including a win in the May race in 2016. This would be why he was so calm after wrecking out at Talladega. Kevin Harvick has also been dominant here at Kansas with a win and four Top 5's in his last five races here and he has won here twice in his career finishing Top 10 over 50% of the time. Seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with three career wins and 17 Top 10 finishes. He also has a win and three total Top 5's in his last five races here but also two finishes outside the Top 15 which is why he is absent from the top list. In four races with Wood Brothers Racing, Ryan Blaney has also had success here with two Top 5's and three Top 10's with a 7.5 average finish. Another solid finish would ensure his trip to the Round of 8 starting next week. Matt Kenseth, like Kyle Busch, sits outside the cutline in this elimination race but comes back to a track he has had success at with two career wins, seven Top 5's and 13 Top 10's. At just eight points outside the bubble, he doesn't necessarily need a win but a Top 5 would go a long way if he can pick up some stage points along the way.

Top 5 Current Track Type History

There are three drivers who have an average finish better than 10 since the start of the 2015 season but it has been Martin Truex Jr. who leads the way with eight wins and 2,115 laps led. He has also been miles ahead of everyone else in 2017 as he is averaging 96.4 DraftKings points per race on intermediate tracks. Kevin Harvick has only won twice on intermediate tracks since the start of 2015 but has led everyone with 17 Top 5 finishes and is second behind Truex with 1,859 laps led. Kyle Busch has also been a force on intermediate tracks with four wins in four fewer races than the previous guys I talked about and has finished Top 5 in just less than 50% of those races. Last week's winner, Brad Keselowski, has also been consistent on intermediate tracks with three wins, 25 Top 10's and a 10.7 average finish. Then there is Matt Kenseth who has n't won on an intermediate track since the playoff opener at Chicago in 2013 but has been very consistent with 21 Top 10's and an 11.1 average finish. One driver who didn't make the list when looking at average finish is Jimmie Johnson who has matched Martin Truex Jr. with eight wins but hasn't been quite as dominant with a 13.2 average finish.

 

Top 5 Current Form (last six races)

Martin Truex Jr, with a wreck last week, fell down to fourth on the current form list but has still dominated lately when looking at fantasy points as he is averaging 78.9 over the last six races with 589 laps led and two playoff wins. Kyle Larson tops the list and has been very consistent with a win and five Top 10's over the last six races, good for a 6.0 average finish. He isn't a lock to make the next round of the playoffs but is sitting 22 points above the cutline. Daniel Suarez is the one driver in this Top 5 list that isn't in the playoffs but has been very consistent as he closes out his rookie season. He has four Top 10's and six Top 15's for an impressive 9.3 average finish.

 

Pre-Qualifying Targets

Kyle Busch($10,300)

As dominant as Martin Truex Jr. has been on the intermediate tracks, I will be leaning on Kyle Busch this week who needs a top finish to advance to the round of eight. He probably feels pretty comfortable coming back to Kansas as he has finished Top 5 here in five straight races including a win in 2016. He comes at a $500 discount from Truex and is safe in all formats.

Kevin Harvick($9,600)

Harvick is 22 points to the good when looking at the playoff bubble but probably doesn't feel too comfortable as one wreck or mechanical failure can change the entire landscape. It's been a very up and down tail end of the 2017 season for Harvick but has a chance to move on to the round of eight with a solid finish at a track he has been dominant at over the years. He has finished third or better in four of his last five trips to Kansas with a win last October. His price has also been trending down and now sits in the mid $9K range making him a top play in all formats.

Daniel Suarez($7,400)

My favorite value play going into the weekend is rookie Daniel Suarez who has been very consistent down the stretch with eight Top 10 finishes in his last 13 races. He also leads all drivers under $9K with 41.1 Draftkings poitns per race over the last six races and now comes back to Kansas where he impressed in the Spring with a 7th place finish after starting 15th.

YouTube Picks Video

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.