Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 7 - 10/18/17

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Quarterback

Dak Prescott FD 8400 DK 7300
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 23.98 DK - 24.82
When I started writing this column, it sure looked like the Cowboys were going to be without Ezekiel Elliott this week (barring some major reversal in appeals) which would have left the nearly full weight of the Dallas offense on Dak. But even with the Zeke stay of execution our system is loving Dak against a well below average 49ers defense. The latter's coming off a week in which they allowed 330 yards passing to Kirk Cousins and just stink in general. Prescott’s sophomore campaign has seen a dip in overall completion percentage (from 67% to 62%) but an increase in TDs per game (from 1.4 to 2.2 per game) as well as a slight bump in passing yards. He’s also adding more points on the ground where he ranks fifth among all QBs despite playing one game less than everyone ahead of him on the list. They haven't been able to rely quite so heavily on the run this season even in plus matchups. I think you can look for a high floor on Prescott even with the Zeke news.

Russell Wilson FD 8100 DK 6400
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 20.69 DK - 21.45
He’s another quarterback coming off a bye playing a still decimated Giants’ team (I’m reading very little into what happened in Denver last week). Wilson's completion percentage is down a little this year off his career averages, but he's running a ton more than last season thanks to an offensive line letting interior defenders to get into the pocket sooner. It's not a huge fantasy concern seeing as how the running makes up for a lot in the points scoring department. Wilson's on pace for nearly 500 yards on the ground which is such a huge boost in the "fantasy floor" department. It makes up quite a bit of ground on traditional pocket passers and is why you'll see running QBs in these picks more often than not. The Giants are slightly better against the pass than the run this season (20th and 27th in DVOA respectively before last week's shut down of  Denver). Vegas likes Seattle as -5.5 road favorites against the G-men and the former should control the game. I prefer Dak heads up, but Wilson could see higher ownership this week.

The Cheapies
Blake Bortles FD 7200 DK 4700
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.29 DK - 18.34
Brett Hundley FD 6500 DK 5100
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 13.33 DK - 14.34
Tyrod Taylor FD 7000 DK 5100
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 17.73 DK - 18.32
All of these are on my DraftKings radar because, well, they are starting quarterbacks coming in at near min-prices on a week in which it might make sense to pay up elsewhere. Bortles is Bortles but the $4700 price tag at least makes you wake up and take notice. That's a stupid low price and he's got a plus matchup against a bottom five Colts defense. Bortles stinks, don't get me wrong, but there's a price for everything and this DK dollar amount might be it for him. He can scramble for glory at times and throws passes. Eh hell, it's tough making a strong case for Bortles but DraftKings is ranging into the the "I dare you" territory.

Meanwhile, Hundley takes over for Rodgers and while he's many degrees worse the dude still gets to throw to Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and DaVante Adams. That's a strong receiver corps for a young QB. And as my brother-in-law Casey texted me incesseantly about on Tuesday afternoon: the guy is fast and ran a ton in college. It stands to reason he could scramble his way to value though he hasn't done that much in his limited NFL time. Hundley's biggest plus is the team.

And finally, Tyrod is coming off the bye week and makes for a possible cheap punt play on both sites against the Bucs' D. He's another runner and you can see that's been the theme for these picks. There's no line of the game because of the Jameis injury, but the TB defense ranks second to last in DVOA and have let up more against the pass than the run this season.

Strongly consider Marcus Mariota

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell FD 9700 DK 9100
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 22.16 DK - 24.99
Look, at this point the usage is just on a completely different level. His 173 touches (rushing attempts + receiving targets) are so far out in front of the next closest guy (Todd Gurley 153) that it's going to take a whole game (or more) for anyone to make up any significant ground. Bell's usage is unparalleled and while he's priced as such, there's a certain amount of safety knowing the Steelers plan with him is to get Bell the ball in really any possible situation. This isn't a fantastic matchup because of the Bengals' slower pace and top-ranked defense, but Bell's role comes damn close to evening it out. He's leading this position because of the touches, but it isn't a complete lock for cash games. Running back is a bit tougher than it was last week when a bunch of guys were in plus matchups. But among the upper salary tier, Bell should always be the favorite because of how the Steelers use him for week to week.

Mark Ingram FD 7100 DK 6700
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 18.18 DK - 20.28
Do you think Ingram is happy to have Adrian Peterson off of the team? I mean they might have been friends, so maybe not from that standpoint, but from a strict football point of view the departure of AP had a direct (and amazing) corollary to Ingram’s success. He tore through the Detroit defense last week putting up a 25/11/2 line while also contributing 5/36 through the air. It was a breakout performance in terms of his usage and now he’ll get a similarly advantageous situation against the Packers. The Saints are -6 favorites on the road against a Rodger-less Green Bay squad. The Packers are a bottom third DVOA team against the rush and it stands to reason this is the new Saints’ plan: to run Ingram as the primary down and goal-line option. It’s a great spot and his price hasn’t fully caught up even with the increase over the last two weeks.

Leonard Fournette FD 9000 DK 8600
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 19.08 DK - 20.54
He's got a few too many long runs in his resume for my to fully trust him, but he's also got the ability to bust off those long runs. So where does that leave us? He's clearly the Jags' one and only answer on offense and they are fine running him every single chance they get. There should be more of the same against the Colts who rank 27th in DVOA against the run. The Jags are -3 favorites on the road and Fournette's second behind on Bell in total rushing attempts this season. That's somewhat more impressive because he's chewed up so many yards on those long runs. The price is getting close to the breaking point, but the carries are hard to argue with.

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald FD 7500 DK 7300
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 16.31 DK - 20.34
We had him as a top cash game play last week and that worked out like gangbusters. Larry Fitz continued his path to the NFL’s Hall of Fame with a monster 10/138/1 week that saw the Arizona offense become a little (a lot) more balanced with the addition of Peterson. He’s third in the NFL in WR targets, leads the league in Red Zone looks (12, tied with D. Adams) and is yet the 9th most expensive WR on FD and 8th on DK. One issue is the Rams’ defense doesn’t line up as a plus matchup with their cornerbacks rating out better than average. Fitz lining up primarily in the slot does cause opposing D’s issues with coverage though because often they won’t bring top CBs in off the outside. The volume is more than there for the price and going back to Fitz in cash is another strong play this week.

Jarvis Landry FD 7000 DK 6800
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 14.82 DK - 18.81
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first: Jay Cutler is still his quarterback and that isn’t going to change. But the opportunity is just there week after week and that makes up for the crappy quarterback play. Landry ranks fourth in WR targets this season despite playing one less game than everyone above him on the list (57) and he ranks second in targets per game (11.4, behind only Brown). He leads the team in Red Zone targets (5) and draws a solid matchup against a bottom third Jets defense. Much like Larry Fitzgerald, the impetus behind playing Landry in cash is rather simple: the team gets him the ball a lot more than anyone else in his price range and that makes up for the crappy quarterback situation.

Antonio Brown FD 9300 DK 8900
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 20.86 DK - 25.31
I'm putting him lower on the list mostly (all) because of the price. Like Bell, he's been priced correctly at this point thanks to the relatively consistent performance and just how many more targets he's seeing than the next closest guy. Brown's 74 looks are 9 more than the next closest guy (Hopkins) and there's even a dropoff after that. You simply aren't going to get this many targets from anyone else in the NFL. Is it worth paying for? That's the question. It's not a great matchup, but so many receivers are in minus matchups this week that it very well might be worth paying up for the target leader.

Strongly consider Adam Thielen if Stefon Diggs sits out again.

Tight End

Jason Witten FD 5300 DK 4500
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 11.06 DK - 14.1
He's coming in third in TE targets per game behind only Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski this season which is pretty remarkable considering he has 2 target and 4 target games on his resume in only five weeks. But the other games have seen elite target share and there's something to be said for that at a positions that's caused much saner men than me complete fits this season. He's priced among his lesser-targeted peers which makes rostering him (even with the crazy volatility) a bit easier. He isn't likely to rack up a ton of yards considering his routes never trend long, but there should be (right?) volume at these prices in a matchup against a bottom third passing defense.

Austin Hooper FD 5000 DK 4100
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 11.55 DK - 13.85
I'll feel better about this play if Mohamed Sanu is ruled out again. That would likely again free up more targets for Hooper. Last week he led the Falcons in targets with 9 and finished with a 7/48 line. That's right at value for this price point and New England's been as bad as you can get against the pass this season. They can't stop anyone from putting up yards through the air and could really struggle with a super efficient Atlanta passing offense. Hooper's still coming cheap on both sites and is really a bargain on DraftKings where tight ends are consistently priced on the lower end of the spectrum.

Consider George Kittle

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars
FD 5400 DK 3700
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 9.36 DK - 9.36
O/U 43.5 JAX -3.5

New Orleans Saints
FD 4500 DK 3000
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 8.54 DK - 8.54
O/U 48 NO -4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers
FD 4500 DK 3200
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 8.96 DK - 8.96
O/U 41.5 PIT -5

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