Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 5 - 10/8/17

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Quarterback

Tom Brady FD 9300 DK 8000
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 25.21 DK - 25.8
(Thursday slate)
A certain pattern is emerging for the Patriots this season. Tom Brady is lighting opposing defenses up like his usual self while the Patriots’ D is getting lit up in its own right. The effect is the New England offense needs to keep its foot on the gas the entire game because the defense keeps the opponent in every affair. It’s nuts, highlighted by early season losses to the Chiefs in week one and then an inexplicable buzzer beater field goal loss to the Panthers last week. But Brady gonna Brady and he had another strong game in Week 4 with 307 yards and 2 TDs through the air. This week they get the Bucs with the highest implied total of the day (30.5) and Brady should come out firing following the loss. He’s expensive for sure, but I think you can roster the salary. We don’t tend to cover the Thursday night games as part of our cash game articles, but this is a good chance to play him in a plus matchup even with the ownership likely trending high because of the timing of the game.

Russell Wilson FD 8000 DK 7100
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 21.12 DK - 21.86
The Seattle offensive line has struggled this season and they are without any real semblance of a consistent running game) but that has effected Wilson all that much to start the season. He's the third highest scoring fantasy quarterback through four weeks thanks in large part to his ability to extend plays with his legs and also get the ball downfield. He ranks second among quarterbacks in rushing yards (138, Watson is well ahead and is working with 1/2 less of a game) and has a WR1 in Baldwin. There are a number of very low implied total games this week but Seattle-LA rates out as a possible "shootout" with a thin spread and 47 O/U. Wilson is coming significantly less than the guys listed above and below him in this article. I love targeting QBs with the ability to scramble for my cash games because they have such a solid safety outlet for scoring. Wilson fits the mold here and could be a popular play on the main slate of games.

Aaron Rodgers FD 9500 DK 8100
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 23.64 DK - 24.18
Look, I get that it's not exactly "sharp" to pick out the most expensive quarterbacks and right them up as the "safe" plays for a week, but I see WR as the place to save this week and spending up for the higher-priced commodities is likely the play. Rodgers is more expensive than Wilson and even though the latter has scored more points this season, Rodgers took his foot off the gas in Week 4 against the Bears with the blow out on (though he did throw 4 TDs on only 26 attempts). This game against the Cowboys also rates as a shootout with a 52.5 O/U and -2.5 spread in favor of Dallas. Like Brady, the only question here is price. He's costly and for good reason, he's about as good as it gets for a fantasy (and real life) quarterback.

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell FD 9500 DK 9500
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 21.04 DK - 23.19
We take one little measly week off from recommending Bell because he’s locked into a low implied total against a slow Ravens’ team that’s solid against the run. And how does the guy exact revenge? By putting up a monster game of course. Bell went 35/144/2 on the ground, 4/42 on six targets through the air and was the clear running back the play of the week. He’ll likely be chalk this time around even against a slower Jacksonville squad that’s strong on the defensive front. Except they’re coming off a week giving up every single yard to the Jets’ running attack and this Steelers’ group is a whole different animal. With some teams on bye and softer pricing at some of the other positions, fitting Bell won’t be much of an issue and he’ll likely be the highest owned running back on Sunday.
Todd Gurley FD 7800 DK 8000
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 17.89 DK - 19.85
Through the first four games of the season, Gurley leads all players in relative usage (Rushing attempts + Receiving targets) with 111 looks (Bell is second with 110) and the next closest is Fournette a full 12 touches (12%) behind. That’s a pretty wide gap and just goes to show the full commitment on the part of the Rams to give Gurley all the opportunity he needs. He’s second in the league in rushing yards behind Kareem Hunt and has able to improve on his YPC (4.2 this season) which plagued his 2016 campaign. He doesn’t have a great matchup this week though it’s worth noting the Seahawks have given up the 6th most rushing yards in the league this season. The Rams are slight favorites at home and actually have more than 25 implied going in. Gurley’s usage is nearly unparalleled and I do think the matchup will scare some folks off of him. I’m not as worried about it considering how the Rams are using him in every possible game script and situation.

Carlos Hyde FD 7200 DK 6900
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.82 DK - 20.19
Speaking of guys whose teams have felt fine relying heavily on to start the season, Hyde ranks 7th in usage (though really 6th now considering Cook’s been lost for the season) and has been quite effective on the ground (4.9 YPC). He’s also getting elite looks in the passing game with 22 targets on the season. One little hiccup with Hyde, though the price factors this in some is Matt Breida saw an increase in snaps last week and did have 9 carries. If Breida is set to spell Hyde more going forward then that could be an issue. But as it stands this is good matchup against the bottom third rush defense in the Colts and Hyde’s role in the offense does appear rather set. He’s a solid upper-middle tier play and could slot in to that RB2 slot for some savings.

Bilal Powell FD 6600 DK 6200
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 15.66 DK - 17.38
Well, all it took was Matt Forte exiting stage-injured to move Powell into the role many expected for him coming out of preseason. Forte had out-snapped and out-carried him all season, but Powell had a coming out party in the starter’s role on Sunday busting out a 21/163/1 game on the ground and also adding 4/27 on five targets through the air. Even if you remove the 75 yard touchdown run, he still averaged 4.4 yards on the ground. Expect to see similar usage this weekend against the Browns with the Jets having very little in the way of offensive “threats”. They were clearly content to run the ball in Week 4 as Elijah McGuire also chipped in with 93 yards on 10 carries. But the snap count (46-19) clearly favors Powell and should going forward. The Browns have allowed only 3 YPC to opposing RBs this season but that number might be a little deceiving. They got a rusty Le’Veon Bell in Week 1, the Colts in Week 3 and a Week 4 where they stacked the box against the Benglas in a blowout. Powell’s price came up across the industry, but it might not be all the way there if this is the Jets plan with him moving forward.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen FD 7500 DK 7200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 15.31 DK - 18.87
Allen has seen double digit targets in three of his first four weeks (and Week 3 he had 9) as Rivers’ clear go-to receiver in the passing game. He’s a fantastic possession receiver who becomes somewhat of the default option in safety check down situations. He could draw Janoris Jenkins some though it’s worth noting that Allen’s lined up 47% of the time in the slot this season which means Jenkins would need to draw a full shadow duty. I don’t see that happening. He’s also been targeted in the Red Zone four times this season. I like his FanDuel price a bit more than DraftKings and on a shorter week (without a ton of WR safety) I see him as a top cash game play because of the usage.

DeAndre Hopkins FD 7700 DK 7600
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 15 DK - 18.24
All of last season and the beginning of this one Hopkins struggled with converting his elite target share. But over the last couple of games, with the emergence of Deshaun Watson behind center, that might be changing. Over his last two Hopkins has converted 17/20 targets (85%) and racked up 183/1. It helps that A: Watson looks like a real QB and B: Watson looks like a real QB. He’s getting more optimal looks and getting Will Fuller back last week also likely helps the cause. Hopkins will draw Marcus Peters this week which isn’t ideal, but he’s still priced firmly under the top tier of WRs while putting up similar production. Not available on the DK main slate, but a solid value on FanDuel.

Jaron Brown FD 4500 DK 4500
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 9.2 DK - 11.08
His price is simply too low on FanDuel. It almost feels like a mistake. After sitting out the first game of the season, Brown has racked up two double digit targets games and put together his (by far) best game of the season in Week 4 with an 8/105/1 line on 12 looks. He’s coming at the minimum on FD in a game the Cardinals will likely be playing catch up. It’s worth noting also that he’s basically led the Zona WR group in snaps, tying with Larry Fitzgerald the last two weeks. The Cardinals have <20 implied points going in here, but they’ve proven that since DJ went down the passing game is about the only thing they have. Brown doesn’t need to see his full target share to hit value on the FD price and it’s close on DK.

Other considerations: Odell Beckham’s last two games (since he started seeing his full compliment of snaps) have been tremendous. Outside of the TD celebration weirdness, he’s averaged 14 targets and an 8/85/1 line. The Giants don’t have much in the way of a running game meaning they are going to keep relying on the pass to put points on the board. He’s very expensive but worth a look simply because the target share is beyond elite.

Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker have to suffer through a season of Jay Cutler at quarterback, but both are still seeing plenty of targets for their price. They’ve averaged 9.5 and 8.5 targets respectively over the last two weeks and are converting enough to warrant consideration in PPR formats.

Tight End

Zach Ertz FD 6600 DK 6200
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 12.19 DK - 15.39
He leads all tight ends in targets this season and unlike some (most) other guys at the position hasn’t suffered through a clustering effect in terms of his usage. The week-to-week target breakdown is 8, 10, 10, 8 so I don’t think we have a lot of concern with the looks getting randomly buzzed off. Down and close the Eagles do like to run the ball which has cut into some of the TD equity (though he has 3 RZ targets) so it’s more the week-to-week consistency I’m willing to pay for at the position. There are a couple of cheaper dart-throw options at tight end but at these prices Ertz is still viable for cash games.

Evan Engram FD 5400 DK 4000
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 10.38 DK - 12.73
He’s quietly tied for second in the league in tight end targets with 30 (right alongside Gronk). It’s an encouraging sign for the rookie as he’s worked his way into Eli Manning’s zone of trust. The fact that the Giants need to throw a ton because of their lack of run game has helped as well and while it’s tough to project rookies for consistent performance over the course of a 16 game season, I do like that his targets have increased over the last four weeks (targets: 5, 7, 7, 11). That last number is likely an outlier, but even a semi-consistent six targets a week at these prices is fine enough. I prefer the DK price but $5400 is still viable on FD if you think his role in the offense is solidified.

Strongly consider Tyler Kroft at only $3200 on DraftKings.

Defense/ Special Teams

New York Jets
FD 4300 DK 3000
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 7.81 DK - 7.81
O/U 39 Pick'em

Philadelphia Eagles
FD 4600 DK 3100
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 7.81 DK - 7.81
O/U 45 PHI -6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers
FD 4800 DK 3900
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 7.75 DK - 7.75
O/U 43.5 CIN -8.5

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