Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/30/17

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Pitcher

Corey Kluber FD 12400 DK 13300
Opponent - CHW (Fulmer) Park - @CLE
FD - 42.23 DK - 27.93
160 down and just two to go. It's been a fun and exciting season of MLB here at DFSR and as we make our way through the final weekend of the regular season, we need to really drill down to who has something to fight for and who is just phoning it in. Despite 100 wins and one hell of a win streak under their belt, the Indians still have something to fight for. They have a one game lead over Houston for the top record in the American League and if they want that home field advantage they will need to pick up these final few W's. As I write this, both teams are winning their respective Friday night games. Cleveland will counter with Corey Kluber tonight as the Indians close out this final series of the year at home against the White Sox. Chicago doesn't really present much of a challenge for the Indians ace, as they rank in the bottom third of baseball with a .315 team wOBA and they strike out at a 22.9% clip, which is eighth most in the game. Sure, Kluber is going to cost you a hefty chunk of change, but what do you expect with a .642 win percentage and 11.87 K/9. With expanded rosters and resting players, there should be plenty of value bats popping up through the day, so the price on CK shouldn't be a dealbreaker when considering the implied safety that comes along with it.

Max Scherzer FD 10900 DK 12500
Opponent - PIT (Taillon) Park - @WSH
FD - 46.64 DK - 30.82
Max Scherzer is a little cheaper, and if I had to consider both at these prices in mid July, I would most likely give the edge to Mad Max, but here we are at the final start of the season and the Nationals have little to play for right now. He was pulled after only 87 pitches in his last start against the Mets, though he dominated them through six innings allowing just three hits and one earned run, while striking out ten. He gets another prime matchup tonight against the Pirates. Their .304 team wOBA is the third worst in the game. There's no denying who Scherzer is and what he is capable of doing, but with the uncertainty that comes along with him, he's strictly a GPP play for me unless I hear chatter from the Nats early on that he will be given full run, otherwise, Kluber will be in all of my cash games.

A quick note on the early games. As we have stressed repeatedly pitching can be a bear at this point in the year, and while we were able to come up with some positive things to say about the main slate plays above, there really isn't a whole lot to love about pitching in the early set. I suppose if you were so inclined you could go with Chris Archer against Baltimore, though he has been anything but safe in this last month of the season, allowing an average of four earned runs per game while only making it beyond the fourth inning once in that span. The Yankees need to win out plus some help from Houston against the Red Sox, so if you think Jaime Garcia brings his best stuff to the hill against Toronto, he's in consideration. Speaking of the Astros, as we noted above, they need every win they can get to keep on Cleveland's tail, so Lance McCullers should bring his A game, but nobody on the early fills me with confidence.

Catcher

J.T. Realmuto FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.76
I broke the bank on pitching so I'm going to try and give you as much value as I can with the bats. Particularly behind the plate we always want to look for value and we find an excellent option in the form of J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto tends to find himself in the 5 or 6 hole, which already gives him a boost compared to most of the pack, as most of our catchers find themselves at the bottom of the order. He has also proven to be quite productive down the stretch, finding his way on base in six of his last seven games, with a home run and three doubles, two RBI and six runs scored in that time. He also gets a bit of a boost leaving Marlins Park behind for more hitter friendly SunTrust Park.

Buster Posey FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SF
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.25
For the most part, Im going to just throw in some "consider" plays on the early slate, as with pitching being so sketchy, I don't plan to put a lot of effort into it, but I have to stop for a moment to spotlight Buster Posey. When reviewing the early runs of projections in the system, Posey jumps out as one of the top point per dollar plays at the position, and with good reason. He is just entirely too cheap. Despite the fact that his home run numbers are down for a third straight year, and the lowest since he played only 45 games in 2011, Posey still possesses the best wOBA among qualified catchers not named Sanchez, with the highest average at the position, yet among qualified catchers (of which there are only five) he is priced the cheapest on FanDuel, and the two that are cheaper on DraftKings are listed as out or DTD. Posey is an excellent play against the Padres Chacin.

First Base

Joey Gallo FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.85 DK - 9.69
In his first full season, Joey Gallo is making a strong case at one of the toughest positions in the game. When you're competing against names like Votto and Goldschmidt, it takes a special type of player to inject himself into the conversation, and Joey Gallo is doing just that. He leads the position, along with Cody Bellinger with 39 home runs. He possesses a .357 wOBA and a .318 ISO, and doesn't discriminate, hitting both LHP and RHP equally as hard. Gallo is 1 for 4 on Friday following a stretch of 4 out of the last 5 games in which he was hitless, but for the cost of admission, Gallo has what it takes to pay dividends.

Tommy Joseph FD 2100 DK 2900
Opponent - NYM (Lugo) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.07
This is a caveat play, as since the arrival of Rhys Hoskins, Tommy Joseph has spent a significant amount of time on the Philly bench. If he finds his way to the starting line up, and he still does from time to time, the system loves him as a value play with tremendous upside against the Mets Seth Lugo, making his 26th career start. despite the cut into his playing time, ToJo has managed 22 home runs on the season, which is enough to rank him just outside the top 20 first basemen, and has much better reverse splits, hitting right handed pitching with a .311 wOBA. Lugo has done a nice job early in his career of keeping the ball in the yard, but will take a major hit in the park factor traveling from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park. I prefer Gallo but if you need a few hundred in salary relief, I can see just cause to pivot to Joseph if he is listed in the starting nine.

Lucas Duda FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Castro) Park - @TB
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.32
On the early set of games Lucas Duda comes in at the top of both the raw points and PPD projections, against the Orioles RHP Miguel Castro making his first start following a career of bullpen appearances. Duda carries a .361 wOBA and .303 ISO against RHP this year, and despite the fact that Castro hasn't thrown more than 69 pitches in a game this season, meaning this will likely turn into a bullpen game for the O's, if Duda can log a couple of trips at the plate against him it may be all he needs to pay value particularly on FD where he is just too cheap.

Second Base

Rougned Odor FD 2200 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.4
We're going to focus a lot on this game, particularly from the Texas side. We already discussed Joey Gallo, next up is Rougned Odor. Odor is currently riding an 0 for 22 stretch at the plate, with just five walks thrown into the mix during that nine game skid, but that has driven his cost all the way down to near minimum pricing, and what better night for Odor to pop out of his slump than against Daniel Gossett. Through 17 starts in his rookie campaign, Gossett has compiled a 5.82 ERA and 4.46 xFIP and most telling is the 20.8% HR/FB rate. All you have to do is get wood on the ball and you can take Gossett to the house, which presents Odor with upside for days.

Robinson Cano FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.32
Robinson Cano has hit some rough patches through this final month of the season, most recently a stretch earlier this week where he was 1 for 16 in games between Cleveland and Oakland, but don't let that fool you, the Mariners second baseman, is closing out the season on a high note with a .326/.383/.500 slash line in September, with four home runs, bringing his total on the season up to 23. He'll close out his fourth season in Seattle with slightly less production than he had in 2016though it was still a solid campaign. The Mariners wrap up the season in Anaheim against the Angels who will send Ricky Nolasco to the hill tonight. Nolasco brings his 5.02 ERA and 4.76 xFIP to his final start of 2017. I prefer Odor for safety, but Cano who is sporting a .376 wOBA with a .212 ISO against RHP could provide some upside pop.

Early slate consider: Neil Walker

Shortstop

Elvis Andrus FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.25 DK - 9.6
Back to the Texas well we go with shortstop Elvis Andrus. Andrus has had a breakout season, not only hitting double digit home runs for the first time in his career, but hitting 20 of them. Thats nearly as many as he hit from 2013-16. In addition to that, he's currently tied last seasons career high wOBA of .344 and is close to tying last seasons career high avg. The Rangers have given no indication that they plan to consider resting Andrus at all through this final weekend, so he should assuredly be in the lineup, and though he will cost you more than his teammates we've been spotlighting here he brings just as much safety and upside as anyone in the Rangers starting nine, which is projected for the highest run total on the day.

Marcus Semien FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.8
It's not going to be all Rangers today, as the system is coming high on plays from the visitors dugout as well. Marcus Semien has hit four home runs in September, two of those in the past week. He has however cooled off some since, going 0-7 in his last two games leading into Friday night, and currently as I write this, he is 0 for 3 at the dish in Fridays contest. The A's still remain one of the hottest offenses in the final month of the season, despite having long been eliminated, and find themselves in a good place against Andrew Cashner who despite his 3.42 ERA has a 5.29 xFIP and is allowing a .306 wOBA against through 27 starts this season. All things considered I prefer Andrus, but Semien brings loads of upside to a tournament lineup.

Yangervis Solarte FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 9.37 DK - 7.3
The switch hitting Yangervis Solarte has been much better this season against RHP as opposed to southpaws, so this afternoon is a great time to get in on the action as San Francisco sends Matt Cain to the hill for one final start of 2017. I mentioned phoning it in earlier, the Giants have the worst record in the game, and right now it looks like the number one pick in 2018 is theirs, so I wouldn't expect Cain who has one of the worst xFIPs in the games at 5.36 to even try today, so Solarte who has a .336 wOBA and .799 OPS against RHP should be looking at a big outing today in AT&T Park.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @KC
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.08
Mike Moustakas has been murdering some baseballs this season. Now in his seventh season the left handed hitting third baseman has crushed a franchise record 38 home runs for the Royals this year. As I write this he is currently 3 for 3 at the dish in game one of the series, and today will step to the plate facing Taijuan Walker. Walker has only 9 wins this season but hasn't been terrible, though he has been slightly worse against left handed hitters who carry a .316 wOBA against him, while he's allowing twice as many home runs against the split. Moustakas has bounced back nicely following his injury shortened campaign last season with a .271/.314/.523 slash line and a .252 ISO. Moustakas is just undervalued across the industry and is a top play in all formats.

Jake Lamb FD 3600 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Junis) Park - @KC
FD - 11.53 DK - 8.78
The Diamondbacks are finishing out the season with some interleague action in Kansas City. The Royals will counter the National Leagues top wildcard team with Jake Junis, the rookie RHP will be tested with the powerful Arizona lineup, particularly their third baseman Jake Lamb. Lamb has a .385 wOBA against right handed pitching which is enough to rank fourth among the position, with a .266 ISO. Junis has been impressive in his debut season with eight wins in 15 appearances, primarily as a starter, but he has struggled against the split, allowing a .340 wOBA to left handed hitters. Lamb will be tough to work in unless you pivot to a cheaper, more risky pitcher, so he's more a GPP play, but if you can get him in a cash lineup with Corey, or possibly Max then have at it.

Early slate consider: Evan Longoria

Outfield

Nomar Mazara FD 2700 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.33
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.81 DK - 10.03
Were not done in Texas just yet. In the outfield we have left handed hitting Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo. Mazara is shaking off a rough series against the Astros by going 3 for 8 to start this series with the Athletics. In addition to scoring a run on Friday night he also drove in two helping him to inch closer to the 100 RBI mark. Then we have Choo who homered last night, giving him a career high of 22 for the third time since 2010. Choo, who has been hitting the ball well from both sides this year has been slightly better against RHP with a .342 wOBA. Even though Daniel Gossett has been just a bit easier on Right handed hitters, the .366 wOBA he's allowing to the left side of the plate is more than generous enough to target, and makes the Rangers a solid stacking option and one of the safest lineups to build around today.

Matt Joyce FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.26
Across the diamond in the visitors dugout we find Matt Joyce. It's no surprise to see several players from this game on both sides spotlighted as this game has the highest run total on the day with both teams projected for at least 5 runs. Matt Joyce was held out last night against the lefty Perez but should find himself right back in the two-hole against Cashner. Cashner has't been horrible this season, his ERA of 3.42 is the lowest since 2014 in San Diego, but the career high 5.29 xFIP means we can still exploit him. He's slightly worse against the split this season so targeting him from the left side with a player of Joyce's caliber is an excellent way to go.

Melky Cabrera FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @KC
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.88
Melky Cabrera finds himself back in Kansas City where he spent some time in 2011. During his last stint with the Royals he hit a career high in home runs (18) and RBI (87), he comes into today's contest with two games remaining and needing just one more home run and two RBIs to tie those marks in his twelfth full season. He's been seeing the ball rather well down the stretch with ten hits in his last seven contests and though he's been better against southpaws, his .315 wOBA against RHP is respectable and at his price point, is more than enough to keep him in consideration. Joyce feels safer, but for the cost, Melky comes fully equipped with upside for your tournament lines.

Early slate consider: Jackie Bradley Jr, George Springer, Jon Jay

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