Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/29/17

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Pitcher

Zack Greinke FD 9500 DK 11300
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 36.37 DK - 24.1

With just a few days remaining in the regular season, there is no such thing as a safe pitcher. Rarely anyone will see over 90 pitches and the guys that couldn't arent in the best spots. Greinke has seen 89 and 107 in his last two, so he has as good of a shot as any to last over the 90 mark. He also has one of the more dramatic park shifts possible, moving from Chase Field to the spacious Kauffman Stadium. I can't stress how much of a difference it is to pitch in those 2 parks. Greinke would be in Cy Young discussions of he pitched half of his games in Kansas City. On the season, Greinke has sported a .278 wOBA against both lefties and righties. He's striking out 9.48 batters per nine innings and walking just under two. This version of Zack Greinke is as good as it's ever been, and the match-up is there as well. The Royals have been average against righties with a .314 wOBA and 22% strikeout rate. Greinke is the safest option on the board and a guy I'll have flooding my cash games.

 

Stephen Strasburg FD 10500 DK 12000
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @WSH
FD - 40.29 DK - 26.44
If there is one manager in baseball who doesn't care about pitch count, it's Dusty Baker. While he's been a bit better this year, he's not a guy to pull a pitcher at 90 pitches that's cruising. He will let Stras get to at least 100 if the Pirates are whiffing left and right. He does have more inherent risk than a guy like Greinke, but the upside is greater too. The Pirates are far better against lefties and have ranked 22nd in the league against righties with a .307 team wOBA. They also strikeout at a solid 22% clip since the ASB. Strasburg is having his best season yet and is almost to the point where he's not that boom/bust we're used to. He has contained both sides of the plate with a combined .258 wOBA and 10.37 K/9. He has been injured for a lot of the year, but his numbers are elite by every stretch. The Pirates are out of the race and have nothing to play for. Strasburg will be able to get his strikeouts and hopefully the win against a quality Gerrit Cole.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - TOR (Biagini) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.46

he let us down last night going 0 for 3 but don't jump off the wagon just yet. The cost is high but Sanchez provides the most upside at the position and gets a top matchup. He faces reliever turned starter, Joe Biagini, who looked good early on but regressed over the course of the season and now sits with a 5.34 ERA and has given up at least one home run in four straight and five of his last six starts. Sanchez has also been a tick better vs. right-handed pitchers this season with a .285 average, .370 wOBA and 131 wRC+. If you are avoiding the risk with the top pitchers, Sanchez is a must in all formats.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3900 DK 3400
Opponent - LAD (Ryu) Park - @COL
FD - 7.77 DK - 5.97

It has been a rough season for Lucroy overall but he gives us some cheap exposure to Coors Field which is key if we are going to be paying up for Greinke or Strasburg tonight. The good news is that Lucroy has been very consistent over the last week leading all catchers with a .525 wOBA and 215 wRC+ and since the middle of September has four multi-hit performances. At these prices, we aren't asking for a lot from Lucroy and he doesn't need a lot to hit his value.

First Base

Matt Carpenter FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @STL
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.45

As it stands right now(mid-Thursday evening), the Cardinals need a miracle to make it into the postseason but are one of the few teams that can say that so there is definitely motivation. Carpenter is my top bat at the first base position tonight as he has been consistent down the stretch with hits in nine of his last 12 games and has provided some power with four home runs in that time. He comes at a nice discount off the top options tonight and gets that DFSR boost I mentioned yesterday hitting out of the leadoff spot.
Ryon Healy FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.17

Healy continues to sit near the top of the PTS/$ rankings on FanDuel with a salary under $3K tonight. He doesn't flash the upside of other options but will definitely get the playing time down the stretch and has been a consistent option that can be considered in all formats. He went int Thursday night's game with hits in 15 of his last 19 games and has been much better vs. left-handed pitching with a .370 wOBA and 134 wRC+ on the season.

Rhys Hoskins FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.9 DK - 9.81

After tearing up the minor leagues with 67 home runs between Double and Triple-A over the last two seasons, Hoskins made his way to the big club and continued to wow everyone with his power. He hit 18 home runs over his first 34 games and even more impressive was the patience at the plate as he recorded a .442 on-base percentage. He has finally hit the rookie wall and has been struggling late in September but has a nice matchup tonight and makes a projected low-owned GPP play. He faces Matt Harvey who has been a huge disappointment in 2017. Since returning to the rotation, he has given up 24 earned runs(4 HR) in 18.1 innings for an ugly 11.78 ERA. I look for a bounce-back for Hoskins going into the final weekend of the season.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.53 DK - 8.83

The Astros have clinched the West Division but are in a battle with the Indians best record in American League. I wrote up Altuve yesterday and mentioned the risk as he was hit in the foreman Monday with a pitch but appears to be just fine and is currently 3 for 3 on Thursday night. He is my pick for the AL MVP award as he contributes in every offensive category and has recorded his second straight season with 20 home runs, 20 steals, and 100 runs scored. He gets another nice matchup tonight facing Doug Fister who has given up 14 earned runs over his last three starts pushing his ERA to 4.87 for the season. If you are paying up for one bat tonight, Altuve should be at or near the top of the list.

Cesar Hernandez FD 3300 DK 3400
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.33 DK - 8.67

The Phillies offense as a whole has been a disappointment once again in 2017 but that doesn't mean we should avoid them from a DFS standpoint. We have to pick and choose our spots and tonight they are in a great spot vs. Matt Harvey who has been nothing close to the Dark Knight of old. This brings Hernandez into the conversation who has had a productive season despite the lack of production around him as he enters Friday with a .291/.368/.415 slash line and has somehow scored 82 runs and posted his third straight season with 15+ stolen bases. With his mid $3K price tag, he is in play in all formats tonight.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 3800 DK 5300
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.29

As long as Correa is priced under $4K on FanDuel, he will be showing up in the article as a top PTS/$ value play. I mentioned yesterday he was starting to heat up after returning from injury and he is proving me right as he is currently 3 for 3 with a run batted in and two runs scored. The Astros would love nothing more than to overtake the Indians for the top record in the AL and lock up home-field advantage through the ALCS and will need Altuve and Correa to continue their dominance against Doug Fister and the Red Sox. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel but at $5,300 on DraftKings, his best fit is in GPP formats only.

Elvis Andrus FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.18 DK - 9.54

All things considered, Elvis Andrus has been one of my favorite targets at the position this season. He is having a breakout season in almost all offensive categories including the power department as he comes into tonight with 20 home runs is the only shortstop to record a 20/20 season to this point. The matchup is interesting as Alcantara has not allowed an earned run over his last two starts but is walking(10) exactly as many batters as he is striking out(10) this season and has given up 36% hard contact in those two starts. Roll with Andrus and his consistency with confidence in all formats.

Third Base

Evan Longoria FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @TB
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.35

Longoria tops the PTS/$ value rankings tonight as his price continues to sit in the mid to low tier on both sites. It makes sense as he has seen a decline in his 10th season in the league but is still a productive player who has driven in 83 runs and scored 69 on a poor offensive team. I am not too worried about his three-game hitless streak as he had recorded at least one hit in seven of his previous eight games. This play, however, is much more about the matchup as he faces Wade Miley who appears to have clocked out for the season giving up 16 earned runs over his last three starts with four home runs. The low price helps you load up with top bats at other positions and makes Longoria a nice value in all formats.

Josh Donaldson FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - NYY (Tanaka) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.54

If you are looking to separate yourself in tournaments tonight, consider Josh Donaldson who should be low owned as he faces the Yankees ace, Masahiro Tanaka. Don't let the tough matchup or the fact the Yankees have much to play for than the Jays fool you as Donaldson just recently touched up Chris Sale for multiple home runs in Boston. In fact, Donaldson is closing out the season in style with a .465 wOBA and 196 wRC+ in the month of September with 10 home runs and 19 RBI. The fact that Nolan Arenado is facing a lefty at home in Coors will also help keep Donaldson ownership very low tonight making him a top pivot with huge upside.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4200 DK 5600
Opponent - ATL (Gohara) Park - @MIA
FD - 16.12 DK - 12.11

The fact that Stanton is the seventh most expensive option on FanDuel in the outfield tonight is more than enough to get him in your lineups. And if you have been living under a rock in 2017, he can also hit home runs like the Babe. In fact, with two home runs last night Stanton has tied Ruth's 1921 season total of 59 home runs and now sits just two back of the tieing Roger Maris' iconic 61 with three games to play. The Marlins, as a team, have nothing to play for so look for Stanton to swing for the fences every at-bat from here on out. Not like he doesn't anyway.

Nelson Cruz FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - LAA (Skaggs) Park - @LAA
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.02

Next up we have Nelson Cruz who has been one of the most prolific power hitters of our era. He has recorded nine straight 20+ home run seasons and with two more in 2017 will four straight 40+ home run seasons. He may reach that total tonight as he faces Tyler Skaggs who has allowed at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts. Looking at the splits his average is much worse against southpaws this season but the production numbers are definitely there as he carries a .349 wOBA and 121 wRC+ into tonight.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.97
Nomar Mazara FD 2800 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @TEX
FD - 5.02 DK - 3.88

Both teams have been eliminated and are just looking to close out the season but the still present fantasy value. For Choo and Mazara, this is especially true on FanDuel where both are right around the $3K mark tonight and both hit in the top four of the Rangers lineup. The offense has definitely not been the problem in 2017 as they rank inside the Top 10 in overall runs scored and both have been big contributors. For Choo, he has hit leadoff or second for the majority of the year and tallied 21 home runs, 76 RBI, and 94 runs scored while Mazara has recorded 20 home runs for the second straight season to start his career and added 94 RBI and 62 runs scored. Alcantara shut them down last start but I don't see it happening twice as he has walked as many hitters as he has struck out in his brief stint in 2017. Load up on Rangers as many will look at that game log and avoid the situation.

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