Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview & Picks for DraftKings - Apache Warrior 400

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Apache Warrior 400

Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE
Track - One Mile Oval
Laps - 400

This week the Monster Energy Cup Series travels to Dover for the first elimination race of the 2017 Playoffs. Kyle Busch dominated New Hampshire last week grabbing the checkered the flag and joined Martin Truex Jr. as the first two drivers to advance to the Round of 12. Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski also clinched their way into the next round on points which leaves just eight spots available this Sunday. Before getting into the race trends, let's take a look at the drivers sitting on the bubble going into the weekend.

• Ryan Blaney(2070 pts)
• Chase Elliot(2070 pts)
• Kevin Harvick(2069 pts)
• Jamie McMurray(2053 pts)

CUTLINE (Four Drivers will be Eliminated)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(2044 pts)
• Austin Dillon(2044 pts)
• Ryan Newman(2043 pts)
• Kurt Busch(2027 pts)
• Kasey Kahne(2023 pts)

As you can see, Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch will need nothing less than a win to move on after poor starts and some bad luck has them sitting at the bottom of the standings. From there, everything is pretty tight within 10 points which is going to lead to some exciting racing on Sunday as every position and point will be ultra-important.

Dover International Speedway is a one-mile intermediate track(classification from DriverAverages.com) but the weight on Track Type will be lower this week. This is because the other two tracks(New Hampshire, Phoenix) in this class are flat tracks while Dover is steep with 24° of banking. Some have called Dover a bigger version of Bristol Motor Speedway but for the most part, I will be concentrating on current career track history here.

Looking back at the last six races here, there are some very interesting trends to look at when deciding what is important this week. The first that stands out is that place differential is definitely going to be key. Outside of the 2016 and 2014 fall race, there have been at six drivers to pick up double-digit place PD points in the other four races with a crazy 13 back in the May race here in 2015. There have also been at least eight drivers in every race(last 6) to pick up double-digit fast laps and at least two drivers to lead 50+ laps in five of the last six races.

Let's now take a look at some of the track stats going into this weeks race.

 Last Six Winners at Dover

• Jimmie Johnson (started 14th, led 7 laps)
• Martin Truex Jr. (started 2nd, led 187 laps)
• Matt Kenseth (started 10th, led 48 laps)
• Kevin Harvick (started 15th, led 355 laps)
• Jimmie Johnson (started 14th, led 23 laps)
• Jeff Gordon (started 6th, led 94 laps)

Top 5 Current Track History at Dover

 

It's a small sample size but no one has been more consistent here at Dover than Chase Elliott. He has finished all three career Cup Series races inside the Top 5 and twice has picked up double-digit place differential starting outside the Top 10. Martin Truex Jr. is next on the list and is the defending race winner of the playoff race here as he dominated last fall leading 187 laps en route to his win. He has also finished inside the Top 10 in four of the last five races. Rookie Daniel Suarez qualified 3rd in his first Dover race earlier this year and ran well all day and ended up with a 6th place finish. He is going to be a top value play this week in DFS with a price south of $7K. Kyle Larson has yet to win here at Dover but has also been consistent with three Top 5's and four Top 10's in his last five races.

Top 5 Career Track History at Dover

Looking at the career track history here, no one has dominated this track quite like Jimmie Johnson. He has more career wins at Dover(11) than all but 11 active drivers in the series have total career wins at all tracks. He has also finished Top 5 in more than 50% of his races here and led a whopping 3,100 laps. Is ths the week the #48 team gets back into Victory Lane? I wouldn't bet against it. The other two drivers with large sample sizes that stand out when looking at the career history here ar Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman who both have three career wins here. Kenseth returns with a 12.8 career average finish with Newman right behind with a  13.7 career average finish.

Top 5 Current Form (last six races)

A pair of Kyle's top the current form list this week as both Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have two wins over the last six races and both have finished Top 10 in five of those six races. The Toyota drivers have all been fast lately as Denny Hamlin has a win and four Top 5's in the last six races while rookie Erik Jones has matched Larson and Busch with five Top 5 finishes in the last six races. He is my pick to be the non Playoff driver to grab a win this postseason. When it comes to fantasy points, which is why we are here, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. should be at the top of your list every week as they have led 486 and 520 laps respectively and both are averaging over 79 DK points per race over the last six races.

Pre-Qualifying Fantasy Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)

For only the second race this season(Harvick at Phoenix), we have a driver reach the $11K mark on DraftKings. Both Truex and Busch are there this week and my early ranks have Truex as the clear choice. He is the defending winner of the fall race here after dominating in 2016 and has finished Top 10 four of the last five races here with an impressive 6.0 average finish. On top of that, he is having his best season of his career with five wins and 12 Top 5 finishes.

Chase Elliott ($9,200)

Speaking fo the early pre-qualifying rankings on my sheet, Elliott sits #1 right now. It is just a matter of time before he gets his first career win and if I had to pick a track, Dover would be at the top of the list. He has raced here three times in the Cup Series, finishing inside the Top 5 in each race. With a price in the low $9K range, you can bet he will be chalky this week but is a safe play in all formats.

Ryan Newman ($7,200)

Newman is currently sitting on the wrong side of the playoff bubble going into the first elimination race and is likely thrilled to be coming back to Dover, one of his best tracks. He has three career wins here and although they came way back in 2003 and 2004, he ended a non-Top 10 streak this spring finishing a strong fourth. While I don't think he will win the race, I think he is a trong value play in the low $7K range that is more than capable of a Top 10 finish.

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.