Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 4 - 10/1/17

Wow, what a crazy Week 3 in the NFL. There were legit more WTF?! moments on Sunday than I really care to count including (but not limited to) New England needing a Brady miracle to pull out a win at home against Houston, Golden Tate getting tackled at the half inch line to end the game, Jacksonville and Washington winning in blowouts, two OT games and a 61 yard game winning field goal. And that doesn’t even feel like the half of it.

But on to Week 4 we head which could include its own level of crazy. We have DraftKings taking off the Sunday night game from the main slate, another Sunday morning game and a bunch of cheap quarterbacks looking like possible value. Let’s dive in.

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Quarterback

Tom Brady FD 9500 DK 8000
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 20.12 DK - 20.57
Two things are becoming very clear to start this season. 1. Tom Brady is still in the top 1-2 quarterbacks in the league and 2. The Patriots defense isn’t shutting anyone down this season. Through the first three weeks Brady leads all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring (it’s not all that close) and the Patriots have allowed an average 32 points per game to the Chiefs, Saints and *gulp* Texans. I know they come into this game as a big favorite, but that hasn’t mattered much for the Pats so far this season and Brady should continue to see Brady-like opportunity making the offense churn. Some blowout risk for sure, but most of the offensive production stands to run through him for a team with the highest implied total on the day.

Carson Palmer FD 7400 DK 6100
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 20.41 DK - 21.6
In his two games without David Johnson, Palmer has averaged 44 passing attempts and 329 yards through the air. The Cardinals haven’t been able to trust much, if anything, with their running game and will likely continue to rely on Palmer to move the ball down the field. He’s not an accurate passer (57% over the last two weeks which is down from his career numbers) and that should be expected especially without best safety valve in the NFL (DJ). But the volume is real and this week he draws a matchup against the 49ers who are allowing a bottom third passer rating to opposing QBs this season (Cam, Russ and Goff). The Cardinals have the fourth highest implied total on the main slate with no running game to muster. This could be a lot of Palmer even early in downs. He’s cheaper across the board and though I usually like to target QBs (non-Brady Division) who can run to raise the scoring floor, Palmer could be one of the exceptions in this matchup.

The Cheap Guys
Tyrod Taylor FD 7100 DK 5300
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 18.51 DK - 19.11
Deshaun Watson FD 7300 DK 5100
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 18.85 DK - 20.23
This very much could be a week where paying down at quarterback is the way to go. These are mostly DraftKings' plays seeing as how you aren't realizing any huge savings on FanDuel. But the low cost on DK coupled with the tighter pricing on the top tier players means you could think about going this route in cash games. Both of these guys will run and are ranked 1 and 2 in quarterback rushing yards with Watson ranking 27th in the league in overall (more than guys like Ty Montgomery, Isaiah Crowell, etc). And he kept an efficient passing game against New England last week finishing with 301 yards and 2 TDs through the air. The matchup against the Titans isn't completely ideal, but again the price low.

Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor comes in as a road dog against the Falcons in a game where the Bills could be down early and often. That might not be the worst thing in the world for fantasy purposes. While he hasn't thrown a ton this season (the Bills have been out in front two of the three games), he's having his most accurate completion % season (67%) and is on pace for the most touchdown passes of his career (4 through 3 games). The Carolina game was bad but the Panthers completely dominated the time of possession game. The Falcons play a faster pace and Taylor's touches should see him hitting value through both the air and ground. He's a fine punt play on DraftKings.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 18.17 DK - 19.23
Through three games, Zeke is fourth in the league in rushing attempts (55) and that includes a disaster 9 carry performance in Week 2 against the Broncos. Suffice to say he’s still the clear bell cow with the Cowboys, and though the yards per carry might not reach back to 2016’s lofty heights (4.8 compared to 3.5 this year) the volume is still very much there. And in the NFL this season, that very much matters. Dem Boys are -7.5 favorites against the Rams who’ve allowed the 22nd most rushing yards in the league this season (with C. Hyde really the only RB “threat” they’ve faced). Zeke is clearly in a different class and I suspect his player prop to be the highest total yards rushing on the week.

Devonta Freeman FD 8500 DK 7300
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 17.41 DK - 18.61
When seeking out solid cash game running backs (and we’ve said this a ton in the past), finding home favorites is a solid correlation with fantasy success. There aren’t a ton of running backs that fit that mold this week, but Freeman is one of them. He’s the fourth best running back to start the season (though admittedly well behind Hunt, Gurley and… Chris Thompson) but his usage is right in line with “safer” cash game plays. He’s averaged 20 carries over the last two weeks and the Falcons have made him their primary red zone option scoring 4 TDs on the early season. While Buffalo’s defense v. the run numbers look solid, it’s worth mentioning they’ve played the Jets, Panthers and Broncos (who used a diverse run game to average 4.8 ypc). I suspect that’s more in line with what we can expect from the defense and Freeman as a favorite at home could see plenty of touches in the second half assuming a Falcons’ lead.

The Cheap Guys
Chris Carson FD 6600 DK 5400
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 14.71 DK - 15.65
Joe Mixon FD 5600 DK 5700
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 13.24 DK - 14.53
Both of these guys are emerging as their team’s primary options in the backfield with Carson looking especially solidified after a second straight week of leading the RB snap count (41 to CJ Prosise’s 27). He wasn’t all that effective 11/34 but the Seahawks were playing from behind against a very good Tennessee run defense. The Colts have solid-isa numbers on paper, but that can be misleading figuring their opening week was a crazy blowout at the hands of the Rams, Week 2 was the DJ-less Cards and last week the Browns had to pass most of the game to keep pace. Expect more of a workload out of Carson this week with the Hawks the biggest favorite on the day.

Meanwhile, it was announced last week that Mixon would see more of a role in the offense and he saw 55% of the snaps against the Packers ending with 21 total touches and 101 yards from scrimmage. It’s a super encouraging sign, especially how they used him in the pass game and the Bengals were clearly more in sync a week removed from Ken Zampese as O-Coordinator. If anything, I think the snaps continue to move in his favor. The matchup isn’t completely ideal with the Browns looking fine enough against the run this year, but we are potentially buying very low on Mixon.

Wide Receiver

AJ Green FD 8000 DK 8600
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 17.38 DK - 21.17
Two Bengals on the cash game list? What has the world come to? Green was the highest owned player on FanDuel last week and crushed his expectation with a 10/111/1 line on 13 targets. I suspect he’s the most owned player there again this week even with the $500 price increase. That’s what happens when the chalk hits and the matchup is plus the week after as well. His $8000 price tag is completely in play and Cleveland was torched by Antonio Brown (11/182) in Week 1 and T.Y. Hilton (7/153/1) in Week 3 (Baltimore in between and their passing game blows). This is lining up for another huge week for Green.

Larry Fitzgerald FD 6700 DK 6100
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 14.6 DK - 18.66
The old man didn’t look any part of his 34 years (ancient in NFL years) on Monday night when he bounced back from a down Week 2 for a 13/149/1 line against the Cowboys. Carson Palmer went his way early and often, aided (fantasy-wise) by the Cardinals needing to play catchup in the second half. Like I said with Palmer, this Zona team sure seems like it’s going to need to pass going forward to keep other defenses honest. They sure don’t seem like the run is going to work and the short passing game could become the de facto running game. After Monday’s game and the price stagnation he’ll likely be another popular play on this slate because of the high target floor. Sure, games like his in Week 2 have me a little concern, but over the course of the season it should be an outlier.

Emmanuel Sanders FD 6900 DK 6100
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 14.38 DK - 17.38
DeAndre Hopkins FD 7300 DK 6400
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 13.98 DK - 17.13
I’m putting these guys together as very solid DraftKings plays based on their early season target share. But they’ve also had some of the same target-to-conversion issues in that time. Through the first three weeks they rank 1st (Hopkins) and 4th (Sanders) in total targets and yet had the second and third worst conversion % among the top ten (thankfully Dez is 11th because he’s losing that stat by a country mile). Sanders and Hopkins both suffer from subpar quarterback play which has helped keep the prices in check.

Sanders will face a porous Oakland secondary (and really just defense in general) which should help him capitalize on the target share. The Raiders rank in the bottom third in terms of giving up yards through the air. Hopkins gets Tennessee who’s been worse, ranking fifth with 858 passing yards against. DeAndre did convert 7/8 targets last week with Watson looking more comfortable under center. If there continues improvement by the QB then we are for buying low on Hopkins.

Tight End

Zach Ertz FD 6900 DK 6300
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 12.33 DK - 15.59
It’s getting a little boring recommending him every week, but nothing his performance to start the season has been about as good as you could want from a tight end. He leads the position in targets with 28 with consistency throughout (8, 10, 10). He’s second only to Gronk in fantasy scoring with the difference being the second TD for the latter. The Chargers did hold Travis Kelce to one catch on one target last week which is a bit disconcerting though Alex Smith only had to throw 21 total passes. I’m still firmly buying on Ertz even with the price still on the rise.

Jason Witten FD 5700 DK 5000
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 11.53 DK - 14.42
Speaking of a team that barely threw in Week 3, the Cowboys attempted a crazy low 18 passes on their way to a win over the Cardinals. They were content to run the ball and only played 47 snaps on offense. That’s about as low an amount as you’ll ever see for a team that won a game pretty handily. Even with a measly 4 targets against Arizona, Witten is still second among tight ends with 26 targets on the season. And Dak’s targeted him in the endzone where he’s caught two touchdown passes. He’s a solid option in a price tier down from Ertz at a position where there’s a lot to hate.

Defense/ Special Teams

Seattle Seahawks
FD 5400 DK 4100
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 9.98 DK - 9.98
O/U 42 SEA -13

Dallas Cowboys
FD 4500 DK 2500
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 7.12 DK - 7.12
O/U 47 DAL -7.5

Cincinnati Bengals
FD 4600 DK 3500
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 8.83 DK - 8.83
O/U 40 CIN -3

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First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.