Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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New Hampshire Motor Speedway - Loudon, NH
Track - 1.058 Mile Oval
Laps - 300
Race one of the Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs is in the books and a familiar face picked up the checkered flag. Martin Truex Jr. tallied his fifth win of the season but it didn't come easy as he was hit with a speeding penalty early on followed by an extra trip down pit road due to loose lug nuts. He fought back and even led the second most laps(77) behind early race dominator, Kyle Busch, who led 85 laps en route to winning the first stage. Busch had his own issues in the second stage as a loose wheel forced him down pit road and the #18 team also committed a "crew member over the wall early" penalty that cost him a pass-through penalty. He never made it back on the lead lap and finished 15th. The drivers sitting in the biggest hurt after the first race are Ryan Newman(16th), Kasey Kahne(15th), Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(14th), Kurt Busch(T13), Austin Dillon(T13).
Race #2 on the Playoff schedule takes us back to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the final September race here as it will be moved to Las Vegas in 2018. New Hampshire will still host the summer race but money talks and Las Vegas gets its wish with a second race that will open the 2018 Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs. New Hampshire is a flat 1.058-mile track that puts emphasis on track position. Don't let Kyle Larson starting from the rear and finishing 2nd fog up reality as he is the only driver to start outside the Top 20 and finish Top 10 in the last two races. Over the last six races, there have been only nine drivers to do so while there have been at least six drivers each race to start Top 10 and finish there in five of those races. Another trend I looked closely at on the cheatsheet was the laps led and fast lap leaders over the last six races. There have been multiple drivers lead 50+ laps in five of the last six races and at least one driver in each race leading 100+ laps. From a fast lap standpoint, there have been at least five drivers to have double-digit fast laps in each of the last six races. As you can tell, I will be weighing overall speed(fast laps/laps led) higher than place differential this week but never count out the value in place differential, especially from the bottom tier drivers. You don't always need the double-digit PD as 3-5 points can make up the difference in hitting value and tanking your lineup.
With all that said, let's dig into the race trends and pre-qualifying picks.
No driver will be sadder to see the second New Hampshire race go than Matt Kenseth. In the five races since the start of the 2015 season, Kenseth has won twice(2016 Summer, 2015 Fall) and finished Top 5 in four of them for an elite 2.8 average finish. He has three career wins here, which is tied for the most among active drivers, with 11 Top 5's, 20 Top 10's, and an 11.8 career average finish. Kevin Harvick has also been impressive here at New Hampshire recently with a win and five Top 5 finishes in his last six races here with 283 laps led. Daniel Suarez impressed in his first trip around the track in a Cup car starting 14th in July and finishing sixth. New Hampshire has been one of Denny Hamlin's top tracks over his career as he holds a 10.0 average finish with three career wins and 14 Top 10's 23 races. He won the race here in July and will have a great shot at a season sweep this Sunday.
Rookie Daniel Suarez tops the list with a 7th at Phoenix, 6th at Dover, and 6th at New Hampshire here in July. He is a part of a Toyota team that has been near dominant lately making him a favorite to get that fourth straight one-mile intermediate Top 10 of the season. Looking at a much larger sample size, Kevin Harvick has been the one-mile king as he has four wins, 10 Top 5's, 12 Top 10's and a 7.5 average finish at the three tracks since the start of the 2015 season to go along with 1,352 laps led. Martin Truex Jr. has been much better on the mile and a half tracks but don't count him out on the one-mile tracks as he sits second in laps led with 868 with one win and eight Top 10 finishes. Oh ya, and he has ultimate momentum and a free ride into the second round with nothing to lose and only more playoff points to gain. Looking at the DraftKings points from the three one-mile tracks this season, no driver has been more dominant than Kyle Larson. He hasn't picked up a win but finished runner-up in all three races and is averaging 99.8 DK points per race. To put it into perspective, Truex sits second with 80.3 DK points per race.
Denny Hamlin continues to pace the field when looking at current form. He has a win and a series-leading five Top 5 finishes in his last six races and dating back to the All-Star Race, he has Top 10's in 12 of 14 races. At a price under $10K once again, he should command strong consideration in your cash games. Hamlin's teammate Kyle Busch sits in second with a win and the only other driver to finish each of the last six races inside the Top 10. He also ranks second in DraftKings points per race as well with his 320 laps led that trail only Martin Truex Jr. who also has two wins in the last six races including the playoff opener in Chicago. After winning the Daytona 500 in February, Kurt Busch has been up and down(more down than up) but is gaining momentum down the stretch with Top 20's in six straight with four Top 10's and an 8.0 average finish.
Kevin Harvick ($10,100)
Of the top tier drivers this week, I am currently leaning Kevin Harvick who has a win an four Top 5 finishes in his last five races here at New Hampshire. He has also been tremendous on the one-mile intermediate tracks since the start of 2015 with four wins, 10 Top 5's, and 12 Top 10 finishes in 15 races.
Kyle Larson ($9,500)
The first thing that stands out here is that Larson has seen his price dip below $10K for the first time since Watkins Glen. That seems odd for a driver who has won four times this year and while he has mixed results here at New Hampshire, finished runner-up in July which was his second Top 10 in a row. On top of that, he is averaging 99.8 DraftKings points in three one-mile intermediate races this season. Safe in all formats.
Matt Kenseth ($9,400)
Another mid-tier driver who makes sense in all formats this week. New Hampshire has been one of his best tracks over his career and he returns with three wins(2016, 2015, 2013) and has finished Top 10 in five straight and nine of his last 10 races here.
Daniel Suarez($7,500)
He didn't make the Playoffs in his rookie season but has impressed with one Top 5 and nine Top 10 finishes. One of those Top 10's came here at New Hampshire in July where he picked up a 6th after starting 14th. One-Mile intermediate tracks seem to be his bread and butter as he has a 6th, 6th, and 7th in three races this season.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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My post qualifying picks article is posted over on my blog. Check it out.
https://www.sportsblog.com/jagerbombs/dfs-nascar-post-qualifying-picks-ism-connect-300/