Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 3 - 9/24/17

Week 2 is in books and we got at least a semblance of entertaining football after a rubbish opening weekend. There's a ton to dissect this week as some teams are dealing with major injuries, others are shifting some of their approach and some teams are just in straight up great matchups. Let's get to it with some Week 3 picks for FanDuel and DraftKings.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our MLB Optimizer, and our new Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan FD 8500 DK 7100
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 21.47 DK - 22.42
The dude is just so freaking efficient. Last season he was the most consistent fantasy QB (.27 CV) over the course of the season, and it’s easy to see why. He completed 70% of his passes, barely got picked (7 INTs) and had by far the best TD/ Pass Attempt rate in the league. That’s what happens when you have an accurate passer with a ton of weapons in a dynamic offense. Now the TDs may have been a little run-hot as he has only thrown two this season, but they are still throwing in the red zone and everything else about his game remains the same. Detroit has allowed the 235 YPG through the air this season against Carson Palmer and Eli Manning. Ryan could give them fits here. This game could be a shootout with an over/under of 48.5 and a then spread (ATL -3).

Aaron Rodgers FD 9300 DK 7300
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 22.37 DK - 22.86
Let’s see how many weeks we can go through this same drill. He came surprisingly under-owned on both FanDuel and DraftKings last week despite the matchup and he delivered (albeit in a garbage time-y kind of way) with a final line of 343/2 despite operating without his two best receivers and two starting tackles. Rodgers is just that good and he can take the second team receiver group and make them look like Pro Bowlers. This week I’m not quite as high on him simply because there’s a little bit of blowout risk (-9) and he could still be without those aforementioned guys. But only Ryan was a more consistent fantasy commodity last season and Rodgers was the leading fantasy option by a not-insignificant amount. The Bengals have looked bad to start the season and there’s no reason to expect them to turn it around in any kind of meaningful way here.

As far as cash games are concerned, I really think these two guys represent, by far, the best opportunity. Cam Newton is in a good matchup but is without his starting TE and has been erratic over the last season plus. Tom Brady is a huge favorite and there's blowout risk there. One guy who could end up with similar ownership to Ryan and Rodgers is Derek Carr whose Raiders have the highest implied total on the slate (28.5). Carr's been incredibly efficient to start the season (75% completion rate) and wasn't asked to do much last Sunday in a blowout against the Jets. He could be unleashed in what Vegas has as a shootout in Oakland.

Update: Including Kirk Cousins on this list as well. Coming cheap an in a potential shoot out with Oakland he stands to have a higher floor.

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell FD 8700 DK 8800
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 21.19 DK - 23.47
Well let’s do the good news first: Bell was back to his old usage ways in Week 2 getting 27 carries and 4 targets against a Vikings team that played without Sam Bradford. It’s an encouraging sign for Bell after a Week 1 that saw him knocking the rust off from no preseason. The bad news is even with the insane volume, he wasn’t all that effective. He tallied only 91 total yards (2.9 yards a touch) and had difficulty getting anywhere close to the second tier of the Minnesota defense. This could be some chicken/ egg stuff with the Vikings clearly loading the line in a game they were losing basically from jump street. But we should probably start to have a little concern for Bell. All this being said, the price is sub $9K on both sites and the Steelers come in as 7.5 road favorites against a Chicago team allowing an average of 341 total yards of offense to opponents in the first two weeks (ATL and TB). They won’t get a reprieve in Week 3. Expect continued usage for Bell and I suspect he’s a chalkier play all around but especially on FanDuel.

Jay Ajayi FD 8200 DK 7700
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 17.42 DK - 18.59
The Jets have been completely obliterated on the ground so far this season. McCoy and Tolbert combined for 150+ yards in Week 1 and the Raiders basically just through any warm body into the backfield to torch the Jets’ D (Richard, Lynch, Patterson and Washington combined for 180 yards). Now Ajayi has a turn after the Dolphins used him a ton in their first game of the season. He carried the ball 28 times for 122 yards against the Chargers and it looks like the Dolphins plan to run him into the ground much in the same way they did in the second half of the season last year. For our fantasy purposes, this is just about the perfect RB spot. Miami is a -6 favorite (though on the road) and should factor Ajayi heavily into their plan to grind out the win.

Ty Montgomery FD 7200 DK 6900
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 16.99 DK - 18.62
If one of the winning RB1 formulas is home field + heavy favorite, then this is about the perfect spot for Montgomery. Green Bay comes in at -9 against the woeful Bengals who’ve allowed the second most opposing rushing yards to start the season (against the Ravens and the Texans). The Packers are a completely different animal. Montgomery has struggled to get much going on the ground this season though some of that is explained through a tough matchup against the Seahawks and a game against the Falcons where the Packers were playing catchup the whole time. I’m still loving the implied volume in a game Green Bay should control and that the Packers’ WR corps is a bit banged up makes me like him even more. He’s still coming at a value on both sites.

Strongly consider C.J. Anderson as the Broncos have leaned heavily on him to start the season. Also, Tarik Cohen could be a chalk play if Jordan Howard were to sit out with injury.

Be sure to check out our Running Back value article later in the week. We’ll take a look at a number of other options at the position. .

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown FD 9000 DK 9000
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 17.05 DK - 20.54
AB’s started the season much like he’s played his whole career, as the consummate possession receiver and probably the just best overall wide out in the game. He’s been targeted 22 times already (even in two games the Steelers had firmly in control) and has converted 70% of those looks for a combined 16/244 line. He’s the second highest PPR scoring WR this season without having recorded a TD. That’s pretty ridiculous and could mean we haven’t seen anywhere close to the upside for when he does his pay dirt.
Jarvis Landry FD 6800 DK 6800
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 13.49 DK - 16.77
Do you think Jay Cutler has a favorite target? It was kind of hard to tell in his first game under Miami center considering he force-fed Landry all freaking day. The latter ended with a nutso 15 targets and 13/78 line. Sure, the YPC wasn’t amazing, but who cares when you are talking PPR goodness. These numbers aren’t likely to be replicated, but if the plan is to go Landry’s way early often then he has a very high floor in DraftKings’ scoring.

Keenan Allen FD 7200 DK 7200
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 15.11 DK - 18.73
He’s tied for 6th in the league in targets to start the season and it’s a carryover from his healthy days in 2014 and 1/2 of 2015 when he combined for 210 targets in 22 games. That’s elite WR usage and he’s begun 2017 at much the same pace. Allen’s always been been great in the possession game, converting 69% of his targets for his career and short of injury (an issue with the dude) there’s reason to suspect he maintains this volume with Rivers behind center. The Chargers are road dogs and the way KC’s started the season, one can envision a scenario in which the former are playing catchup. Allen’s price is on the rise but he’s still a value on both sites (a bit better on FanDuel) and has a high cash game floor.

Rashard Higgins FD 5100 DK 4000
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 10.65 DK - 12.99
Could be the first and last time we see a Browns’ receiver on any kind of value list. That’s because with Higgins he either performs and the price climbs quite a bit or he does what most Browns do, suck, and we don’t need to revisit this team again. Higgins came off the practice squad last week (he wasn’t available on either site) and when Corey Coleman got hurt turned into Deshone Kizer’s primary target. Higgins finished with an absurd 11 looks on his way to an out-of-nowhere 7/95 line. It could be a fluke, or we could be buying low on a newly minted WR1 for a sh@#y team. On DraftKings, you can run the risk on the latter.

Note: Keep a very close eye on the Packers’ receiving corps injury status. Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb left Sunday night’s game early. Aaron Rodgers can make just about any WR look good so we could see guys like Davonte Adams or even Geronimo Allison step up.

Be sure to check out our Wide Receiver value article later in the week. We’ll take a look at a number of other options at the position including (but not limited to) Kelvin Benjamin, AJ Green and more. 

Tight End

Zach Ertz FD 6500 DK 5000
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 11.12 DK - 14.07
Only Jason Witten has more TE targets to start the year and 9 of them came against Ertz’s opponent this week. The Giants have been shredded by the TE to start the season, a carry over from last season when they ranked 26th in DVOA against the position. Witten went 9/59/1 in Week 1 and Eric Ebron hit them up for a 5/42/1 line on Monday. Ertz is much better than both of these guys and could give Big Blue issues all day. He’s converting 72% of his targets this season and leads all tight ends in receiving yards. He’s not coming cheap but there’s little in the way of relative safety at the position especially in the upper tier with Olsen out and Gronk possibly banged up. I’m fine paying a slight premium for his target share relative to the rest of the position.

Zach Miller FD 4800 DK 3000
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 9.38 DK - 11.55
Through the first two games Miller has an many targets as Gronk and more than guys like Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker. That’s come in some part because the Chicago receiving contingent has been decimated by injury (and wasn’t that good to begin with anyway). He’s second on the team in targets behind Tarik Cohen (who’s seeing absurd usage) and it stands to reason the Bears are going to spend the better part of this season playing catchup in games. Miller is strictly a price play at a weaker position and makes for an affordable pivot on DraftKings especially if you don’t want to allocate much toward the cap.

Defense/ Special Teams

The last couple of weeks have seen rather chalky defense going (Rams in Week 1, Ravens in Week 2), but I'm not sure that's going to be the case in Week 3. The teams in great spots have seen significant price increases across the board with more matchup-based pricing seemingly taking hold. With that in mind, here are some defenses we can think about targeting in cash games.

New England Patriots
FD 4900 DK 3800
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 8.82 DK - 8.82
O/U 43.5 NE -13.5

Indianapolis Colts
FD 4500 DK 3200
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 8.18 DK - 8.18
O/U 40.5 CLE -1

Tennessee Titans
FD 4300 DK 2700
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 7.17 DK - 7.17
O/U 42.5 TEN -3

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our MLB Optimizer, and our new Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.